How China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal is good news for India — and the world

Iran and Saudi Arabia finally agreed to resume bilateral diplomatic ties. The deal was brokered by China after days of deliberations. The top security officials of the two countries penned the documents in Beijing. The agreement calls for an exchange of ambassadors within two months. Bilateral relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia had been strained over many geopolitical issues, including aspirations for regional leadership. Diplomatic relations were suspended from 1987–1990, and again for seven years after the execution of Nimr al-Nimr, a Shia cleric and critic of the government in Saudi Arabia, who was executed after a death sentence in January 2016. In response to the execution there were mob attacks on the Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran. Saudi Arabia is an Islamist Salafi absolute monarchy established in 1932. It has traditionally been close to the United States. Iran became a constitutional monarchy in 1925, but after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the country began following a presidential democracy supervised by a theocracy governed by a “supreme leader”. Both countries are major oil and gas exporters and have had differences over energy policy. During the Cold War, both were pro-West. In the Syrian civil war, Iran has supported the Syrian government, while Saudi Arabia was a major supplier of aid to rebel groups. For several years after the 2016 rupture between the two countries, Iraq and Oman tried unsuccessfully to get these two to restore relations. That China secretly ended up brokering what appears to be a significant mending of ties has surprised everybody. Chinese diplomacy clearly left the Biden administration introspecting. What exactly is the understanding and will the relations actually mend is being discussed? At the face of it, one can see a more functional and productive relationship. The strong Arab Wahhabi Sunni Islam of Saudi Arabia and Persian Shia Islam of Iran have had serious differences, and been the major cause of decades of tensions and bitter rivalries that cannot be easily healed. Saudi Arabia, which had long seen itself as the custodian of the two holiest sites in Islam and the unchallenged leader of the Muslim world, found a rival promoting a revolutionary Islamic ideology. It resulted in Saudi and Iranian interests clashing in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, where there were significant Shia populations. Also during the Cold War, when the United States drew closer to Saudi Arabia while Russia drew closer to Iran, further deepened a rivalry for power, influence, and regime survival. Just in the last decade, Iran and Saudi Arabia clashed during the Arab Spring. Bahrain accused Tehran of inciting anti-government demonstrations, and sought Saudi help. Iran backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and Saudis support Sunni rebels and jihadists. In Yemen, Saudis work to defeat the Iranian-supported Houthis. In September 2019, Iranian drones allegedly attacked two Saudi oil facilities. Saudis cannot run afoul with the US. Iran’s nuclear program is also an issue for Saudis. It is thus difficult to believe that such long term strains over a significantly large region can be repaired all of a sudden. The current accord can best be termed as a temporary rapprochement to reduce tensions. At best it would be to stop physical attacks on each other’s interests. By doing this brokered deal, have the Saudis send a signal to their American friends that they have others to go to. Late last year Saudis had coordinated with the Russians to make cuts in oil production. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been playing his diplomacy cards with independence and pursuing alternative options. In allowing the US’ main rival China to broker the deal, the geopolitical signalling has been with panache. While the US has been busy in its not-so-popular dual-containment strategy against Russia and China, Saudis have been engaging both, what some call as a master-stroke. The global south has given a cold shoulder to the West in the latter’s involvement in Ukraine. Iran has been under sanctions and isolation. The US has been hitting the Saudis on their knuckles once in a while and often taking them for granted. China has been quietly trying to make inroads in West Asia. Beijing needs Saudi and Iranian oil at favourable terms. Iran and Saudi are both vying to be members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). China could also offer security assurances to the Saudis which once was the US domain. Close relations with Russia and China give Saudis greater leverage to deal with the Americans on their own terms. China and Saudis don’t point human-rights fingers at each other. China can continue to talk to both Iran and Saudis to sort out differences and any crisis. And in any case, the Saudis are not disengaging with the West, only seeking more friends. The deal is a masterstroke for China. China could mediate because it has cordial, business-like ties with a majority of countries in the region including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Gulf States, and even Syria, and has no political alignments. The United States, by contrast, plays favourites. Has “special relationships” with some and very poor relationships with others like Iran. USA’s continuous anti-Iran rhetoric, and actions, have left no options and talking grounds with Iran. China did not take sides and has tried to keep both sides happy. It reminded both sides that they have other win-win options. That’s how China could maximise their leverage. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia last year was of much greater bonhomie compared to much more roughshod and somewhat threatening trip by US President Joe Biden. Clearly the US has scored a self-goal and in the process left the field wide open for Beijing and, to some lesser extent, for Russia. The US had been busy in its war against terror in West Asia for over two decades. It had used arm-twisting tactics. In the end they had to leave Afghanistan back to Taliban after wasting trillions of dollars and losing American and Afghan lives in their 20 years in Kabul. The hurried unplanned withdrawal also meant loss of face for them. China had used those twenty years to become a significant military power, build inroads using the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and bulldoze itself in the South China Sea (SCS). Ever since the Ukraine conflict began, China has been making aggressive intrusions in the air defence zones of Taiwan and Japan. China has now also broken out of its Covid-19 isolation. Beijing needs the West Asian giants for its energy needs and wants to support peace in the region. It is hoped that the deal should also help find a solution on Yemen. China’s plan to host a Gulf-Arab summit later this year gives further signals of its geopolitical interests. The United States has always played favourites, and has been known to leave its allies in the region high-and-dry when its self-interest was divergent even temporarily. The US’ disastrous experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan are well known and have left the region in tatters. The US has had a blow-hot-blow-cold relationship with Pakistan. Taking-on two superpowers, Russia and China, together has been another disaster. And now, this deal has put the US to choose between the rock and the deep sea. For its long-term ally Israel, the deal adds more complexities, even though the Saudi-Israel rapprochement had been brokered by the US The region is doing its own calculations. The US can no more be the bully, and will have to adjust to the new dynamics. It is clearly a wake-up call for the US foreign policy sleuths, and the US West Asia policy. The agreement is a setback for US influence and status in West Asia and, to a degree, around the world. The US’ current global game plan has pushed the four autocracies China, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia together. The US has seen disappointments in Afghanistan and Iraq. They engineered the Iran nuclear deal collapse. Their interventions in Syria and Libya were failures by all means. The Iran-Saudi rapprochement has an interesting fall-out for India. It will bring stability to the region. India has been friendly to both these countries. India-Saudi relations have come a long way and the India-Pakistan dynamics is no more a factor in play. Saudis supported granting observer status to India in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and has expanded its collaboration with India to fight Islamic terrorism in the region. In 2019, Saudi Arabia increased the Hajj quota of India, making it the 2nd highest country in the number of Pilgrims. Indians make up around 10-13% of the Saudi Arabia population and are the largest community of expatriates in Saudi Arabia. The population of Indians in Saudi Arabia as of 2021 is 28-30 lakh. Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth largest trade partner (after the US, China and the UAE). India imports around 18 per cent of its crude oil requirement and 22% of its LPG requirement from the Kingdom. During his visit to India in February 2019, Mohammed bin Salman had announced that the Kingdom would be investing US $100 billion in India in diversified sectors. Stability of relations between Iran and Saudis will benefit India. Notwithstanding civilisational links, India’s relations with Iran have had their dynamics. During the Cold War, the two were aligned with the opposing groups. After the Iranian Islamic revolution, Iran has continued to make pro Kashmir independence statements. Though currently under sanctions, India needs Iranian crude oil. The Chabahar port and the North South Transport Corridor are of common interest between the two. “India has good relations with various countries in West Asia. We have deep abiding interests in that region,” Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said. India has a huge diaspora working in Saudi Arabia. We need oil from both. India has always advocated dialogue and diplomacy rather than confrontation. Saudi Arabia has a huge economy. It is a member of G20. Tehran is looking for investments by Riyadh, and expecting expansion of trade ties with both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It will open greater opportunities for trade, and India too will benefit. Whether there will be more smooth sailing for Chabahar port needs further assessment. Will India be more open to importing Iranian oil despite US pressures being contemplated? Just because the deal has been brokered by India’s adversary should not be of concern. India’s relations in West Asia have their own independent standing. Clearly peace and stability in the region should be win-win for all, including India. The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.