How careful analysis of census data brings out shocking demographic trends in North-East India

While it is immediately not known as to when the next census in India would take place—the one slated for 2021 got postponed as a result of the pandemic, the fact of the matter is that pundits of demography have been hazarding the growth pattern that the nation would be encountering whenever a headcount is undertaken. As a matter of fact, according to data interpolated by the United Nations, the population of India is being projected at 1.39 Billion as of 1 July 2021. It has also been estimated that India would overtake China to become the most populous country by 2027 with a population of 1. 47 Billion people. Indeed, notwithstanding the fact that India’s population rose to 1.21 Billion in 2011, putting the country’s headcount at almost par with the combined populations of the United States, Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan and Bangladesh—the positive aspects of the census 2011 report seems to be that the growth rate, has for the first time in 90 years, registered a slow down and the literacy rate has gone up from 64.83 percent in 2001 to 74.05 percent in 2011. The trend regarding literacy is particularly encouraging as it pertains to female literacy. The decadal increase of 181 million has, however, thrown up some disquieting trends as well. While the most apparent among the revelations relate to the uneven child sex ratio, which recorded a drop from 927 to 914 female against 1000 male—the lowest since 1947, registering the alarming fact that there is a growth in gender bias in the country, the other aspects concern the North East. Nagaland’s negative growth rate While the total provisional population of the seven North Eastern states and Sikkim according to the 2011 census is 4.56 Crore, the surprising aspect is Nagaland’s negative growth rate, the only state in the country to record a negative growth rate. The state has recorded a population of 19, 80,602 in 2011, which is minus 0.40 percent, as against a figure of 19, 88,636 ten years ago, which at 64.41 percent was India’s highest decadal population growth in 2001! While one of the reasons that has been proffered for this interesting development is the possibility of a shuffle of population from Nagaland to not only other states of India, primarily to avail of the benefits of the booming service sector, but also to other states in the region like Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, whose inclusion in a greater Nagalim is high on NSCN (IM)’s agenda. Efforts must be made to unravel if there has been a motivated movement of population to the neighbouring states in order to demographically alter the stakes at the bargaining table that would sooner or later take place between NSCN (IM) and New Delhi. After all one aspect that is certain is that the language, religion and social affinity that such migrants would provide the census authorities would be one that would decisively have a Naga provenance. Analysis also seems to be of the opinion that exaggerated figures—which accounted for the high growth rates—were provided by certain tribes in Nagaland during earlier census years in order to cull more financial allocations from the government for various rural development schemes. At any rate, what is clear is that the census in Nagaland has not been a scientific one and it would perhaps be in order to undertake a fresh exercise, the next one could well be an opportunity. This is particularly imperative given the special situation in the state as it pertains to insurgency, ceasefire, the fractured milieu and the ongoing negotiations with New Delhi. Demographic takeover of Assam Another aspect that the Census Report of 2011 has recorded concerns the state of Assam. The decadal population growth in the state is 3, 11, 69,272 or 16.93 per cent. Less than the national growth rate, which stands at 17.64 per cent, the 2011 decadal growth is also less than the growth rate in 2001, which was 18.92 percent. On the face of it the pattern seems to indicate that the votaries of the illegal influx from Bangladesh have been proven to be incorrect. The demography of Assam is not burgeoning into a Malthusian nightmare as was expected. But a closer look at the census throws up certain interesting pointers, which could well showcase that there is more than meets the eye, especially of those who have deliberately chosen to have wool pulled over their eyes. a) Although Assam’s population has registered a decadal growth in 2011 which is not only less than that national growth rate, but also that of 2001, the fact of the matter is that districts of Dhubri, Morigaon, Goalpara, Nagaon, Barpeta, Karimganj and Hailakandi have registered growth rates which are higher than the national average. b) It would be of import to note that the highest growth rate at the district level in 2011 has been recorded by Dhubri (24.40 per cent), Morigaon (23.39 per cent) and Goalpara (22.74 per cent). The Muslim population in these districts according to the 2001 census were 70.45 per cent, 45.31 per cent and 50.18 per cent respectively. It would also be of interest to note that the districts of Barpeta (56.07 per cent), Hailakandi (54.79 per cent), Karimganj (49.17 per cent) and Nagaon (47.19 per cent) were among the top six districts in 2001 with high Muslim population. The fact that all these districts have registered growth rates higher than the national average of 17.64 percent in the latest census not only means that the population has increased in these districts, but that they are in all probability decisively Muslim majority, a direct consequence—it can be analysed—of the illegal migration from Bangladesh. c) In this context it would be of pertinence to note that many of the above mentioned districts about Bangladesh. However, the feature of sharing a common border with the erstwhile East Pakistan is no longer a factor in the demographic invasion that Assam is being readied for. Indeed, having altered the population and socio-cultural pattern of the bordering areas well in advance, the pioneers have moved to central and upper Assam, and have indeed taken up roots in other parts of India as well as would be indicative of the huge Bangladeshi population in places like Delhi and Mumbai. The fact that a district like central Assam district of Nagaon registered high growth rates is only indicative of the pace at which the illegal influx is moving into the innards of Assam. Indeed, the working class in major towns of Assam is now in the hands of the illegal migrants, their absence felt only on two occasions: dates of Islamic observance and on the day of election. Indeed, in all probability this class of people have provided and maintained two sets of census. One in their work place, such as Guwahati and the other in their electoral constituency. It is no wonder, therefore, that the second highest density of population, according to the 2011 census, is Dhubri [1171], the first being Kamrup (Metro) [2010], a district that comprises the most important city of the North East, Guwahati, and a city which acts as a springboard to the rest of India. d) Therefore, even as much is being sought to be made about Assam’s reduced growth rate in the Census Report of 2011, it would be seen that the geo-strategic districts of the state has maintained a steady population growth. The trend is not only expected to continue, but could end in the sage prediction of a former governor of Assam. On 8 November 1998, Lt Gen (Retd) S.K. Sinha, PVSM, had warned of the danger of illegal migration from Assam in a special report to the President of India. Describing at length the history and the conspiracy of the illegal migration, Gen. Sinha had stated, “This silent and invidious demographic invasion may result in the loss of geo-strategically vital districts of Lower Assam. The influx of illegal migrants is turning these districts into a Muslim majority region. It will then be a matter of time when a demand for their merger with Bangladesh be made.” While only the next census would unravel the entire story, the fact of the matter is that observers seem to be of the opinion that the minority population of Assam which according to the 2011 census stood at 10.68 Million constituting over 34.22 per cent of the state’s total population would have gone up to 14 Million or would have crossed the 40 per cent mark that would make Assam’s population. Indeed, studies have shown that the particular community is the fastest growing religion in Assam. The minority population in Assam has increased from 12.4 per cent in 1901 to 34. 22 per cent in 2011, a 21.82 per cent increase the last over a century. While it would require the application of a concerted scientific methodology to unearth the reason for the growth, observers are of the clear opinion that illegal migration from the erstwhile East Pakistan is the reason for the sharp rise. The writer is a celebrated conflict theorist and best-selling author. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .