How Biden’s preoccupation with Ukraine is affecting US’ commitments towards Quad, Indo-Pacific

US President Joe Biden was all set to visit Australia after the G7 summit in Japan but at the last moment his trip was postponed as he needs to be in Washington this week. This was no ordinary visit. President Biden was scheduled to meet India’s PM Narendra Modi, Japanese PM Fumio Kishida and Australian PM Antony Albanese for the third Quad in-person summit. But ultimately Australia, the host of this summit, had to cancel it because Biden was rushing back home to attend to an urgent business. The US is facing an unprecedented risk of a default crisis due to a political impasse preventing raising of the federal government’s debt ceiling. If the impasse doesn’t get broken and an agreement isn’t reached then the US may start defaulting on its debt obligations starting June 2023. While the issue that the US is facing definitely needed Biden’s immediate attention but the geopolitics watchers are calling the cancellation of Australia visit as a sign of the US’s disenchantment with Quad. But is it really so? Answer is no. This is not the first time when a Quad leader has given more importance to domestic politics over his foreign policy commitments. Remember the wild bush fires in Australia in 2020 that led Australian PM Scott Morrison to cancel his visit to not one but two Quad nations i.e. India and Japan? Even at that time, many had announced that Quad was no-more a priority for its members and it was a setback for the grouping. Fast forward to 2023 and Quad is still up and running and causing an equal amount of heartburn to the country that it aimed to contain- China. The truth is that as long as China’s rise and its increasingly aggressive posture will continue to poke India, the US, Australia and Japan, the Quad will stay relevant to each of their foreign policies. But does that mean Quad is only going from strength to strength? Well hardly so. Frankly speaking, Quad is indeed weakening. But the reason isn’t Joe Biden cancelling his Australia visit. The reason is the US’s preoccupation with the Russia-Ukraine war at the cost of its commitments in the Indo-Pacific theatre. Since the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine last year, the United States has emerged as the largest contributor to Ukraine for fighting the war. As of January 2023, its military aid at $46.6 billion far exceeded the second biggest contribution of just $5.1 billion provided by the United Kingdom. Its overall aid had touched $112 billion in 2022 alone. The commitment shown by the US to the war has led to a perception that it is compromising on its commitment in the Indo-Pacific region. There were early attempts to bust this perception such as in the form of a piece on the US Department of Defense website. But as the war is stretching on and has assumed the shape of a war of attrition, there is nothing much the US can do about this perception. With each passing day, this belief is only getting stronger. As much as we would like to debate over it, the truth is that perception plays an important role in International Politics. Despite the brute material reality of the world, perceptions also guide the behaviour of nations as led by their leaders because human beings operate on the basis of identity and emotions. President Joe Biden’s surprise visit to Ukraine did play a huge role in signalling to the world where the US’ priority actually lies. Similarly, his vow to back Ukraine no matter how long the war lasted in February 2023 also sent a message of his unwavering commitment to the theatre of Europe. In the last one year, it almost appears that Russia with an economy of just around $1.7 trillion is the principal challenger to US’s hegemony and China with an economy of $17 trillion isn’t even a threat. If we judge by optics, every key statement and positioning of narrative has been done to declare Russia as the ultimate bad guy. This has seriously dented the consensus that Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump had built over the Indo-Pacific. After the ‘Rebalance to Asia’ strategy of Obama that was pretty much still-born, Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy and revival of Quad filled a very pertinent gap. Biden’s policies over the Russia-Ukraine war has undone so much of that hard work. Not to mention, they have also been able to alienate a key partner in the Indo-Pacific. India has faced a lot of criticism for not partaking in the European problem as if it was being put to some kind of a friendship test. India has junked many old shibboleths of its own to be a part of the emerging security architecture in the Indo-Pacific. Its position in Quad is most vulnerable because it faces China directly on its long and unsettled boundary at the LAC. It needs as many friends as possible and that includes India’s time-tested friend Russia. After all, cooperating with Russia isn’t a choice but a matter of compulsion for India - not to forget the dependence because of arms trade. What Biden’s war has done is that it has pushed Russia even closer to China’s embrace. If the West historically erred in co-opting China to become a part of their liberal consensus, then this Russia-Ukraine war has proved to be another folly of not choosing which battle to fight. Europe is already paying a heavy price for that. But maybe better sense can prevail in the US and it can come back to the white-board to redraw the map of its global priorities. The author is a PhD in International Relations from the Department of International Relations, South Asian University. Her research focuses on political economy of South Asia and regional integration. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. 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