Himachal boost: Priyanka’s rise as an effective campaigner, Rahul can focus on yatra

Ab to utni bhi mayassar nahin mai-khane mein Jitni ham chhod diya karte the paimane mein Amitabh Bachchan’s baritone voice delivered Diwakar Rahi’s couplet in the film Sharabi rather dejectedly. The meaning and import have relevance for the grand old party and the recent outcome in Gujarat Assembly polls where the Congress finished an insignificant second. Worse, the Congress faces an existential crisis of sorts in the land of the original Gandhi and a stiff challenge from the newcomer Aam Aadmi Party. Arvind Kejriwal may be sounding a wannabe but the threat to the Congress is real. Contemporary political history has an important lesson for the Congress. Each time a third party entered into bipolar polity of states, the Congress invariably was pushed to near irrelevance for in the margins. Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi, Punjab, Odisha, Andhra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra are some glaring examples where the Congress’ clout or primacy has become nostalgic or a thing of a distant past. A thorough post-mortem of the Gujarat polls is important on many counts. The Assembly polls are due in November 2023 in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh that share border with Gujarat. The disquiet in Rajasthan Congress is so loud and clear that many party leaders from the state see a replay of the Gujarat like verdict in the Congress-ruled Rajasthan. However, the Congress has an ostrich-like approach. It is weighing options of either letting Ashok Gehlot continue till November 2023 and lose the state or conducting a ‘surgery’ i.e. risk the survival of the government in Jaipur in order to pitch itself as a credible contender for 2023 Assembly polls. Paradoxically, the real conflict is not so much in choosing between Gehlot or Sachin Pilot but taking the ownership of such a monumental decision. The Gandhi trio — Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi feel incumbent party president Mallikarjun Kharge should take the call while the Kharge camp informally wants Gandhis to orchestrate the remove Gehlot operation. A beleaguered Rajasthan chief minister is unlikely to go down without challenging. Therein lies the catch. If things go out of the hand and government falls in Rajasthan due to some unforeseen circumstances, who would get the blame — Gandhis or Kharge? Rather who takes responsibility for the mess? However, the Himachal Pradesh victory and the Congress’ performance is likely to have some bearing on Rajasthan as well as on the internal political equations of the Congress. Clearly, the political stock of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has turned promising. She is being seen as an architect-in-chief for Himachal Pradesh having micro-managed the campaign. If she turns a tad assertive in resolving the Rajasthan imbroglio, Gehlot’s chances of surviving beyond February 2023 would turn negligible. Priyanka’s rise as an effective campaigner and political manager is also likely to have a bearing on Rahul Gandhi’s own inclination to disengage from electoral politics. In short and substance, the Congress may see more and more of Priyanka in poll campaigns of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and more of Rahul in Bharat Jodo Yatra that may start its another leg from east to the west of the country. As of now, the 2024 story for the 18th Lok Sabha looks advantageous to Narendra Modi-led BJP NDA, but the voting pattern in Delhi and Himachal Pradesh has given a glimmer of hope to the opposition. If the Congress can enhance its Himachal Pradesh formula in the states where it is in direct contest with the BJP and non-Congress, non-NDA parties like Trinamool, DMK, Samajwadi Party, JD(U), Shiv Sena (Thackeray) RJD, RLD, TRS, BJD, NCP etc go on performing well in their respective states of influence, there is no reason why the BJP may struggle to cross 225 Lok Sabha seats mark on its own. In such a scenario, the possibility of an alternative government cannot rule out. in any case, a coalition NDA government on the lines of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee era would be bad news for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is not known to make many compromises with alliance partners. The opposition, in its approach, would not mind waiting till 2029 once the brand Modi or the BJP starts getting tainted, weak and vulnerable. It must be emphasised again and again that the opposition story would invariably be chaotically laced with bad blood, absence of ideology and one-upmanship. The Aam Admi Party leadership is proving to be an outlier of sorts. Kejriwal, ambitious yet calculating, is unwilling to join hands with the Congress, Mamata Banerjee or Nitish Kumar. Like Vishwanath Pratap Singh of 1989, he is self-centred in the guise of probity in public life and waiting for an opportunity. Kejriwal’s distrust of the Gandhis date back to early UPA days when the RTI activist was reportedly vetoed as chief information commissioner that would have given him six years at the CIC Bhawan, Baba Gangnath Marg near the Hyatt Regency, New Delhi. Was it a mistake committed by Sonia Gandhi or a judicious call taken by the person celebrating her 76th birthday today? Sonia Gandhi is in Ranthambore today. She would be having some fond memories of 1986 when as prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi had gone to spend six days at the Ranthambore National Wildlife Park. The park was then kept out of bounds for the public. An open ground had served as a helipad where a group of 23 had landed consisting of wife Sonia and children Rahul and Priyanka. Sonia’s mother and eight relatives from Italy; Brijendra Singh and family and Amitabh Bachchan, wife Jaya and two children. Rajiv was so excited that within half an hour of arriving, he was out in a jeep. The bills running over Rs 4,500 were personally settled by the prime minister. Rajiv had distributed little over Rs 2,000 to the cooks and attendants as tips. A special feature of Rajiv’s Ranthambore holiday was when reigning film actress Sridevi reportedly performed before a select audience. There was huge media criticism. In a country of millions of poor, the chief executive was not expected to have a good time. The writer is a Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. A well-known political analyst, he has written several books, including ‘24 Akbar Road’ and ‘Sonia: A Biography’. Views expressed are personal. 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