Head-on | Ukraine is the elephant in India’s G20 room

Last week’s visit to India by Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister Emine Dzhaparova had a clear agenda: nudge New Delhi gently away from its Russia tilt. Dzhaparova called India a vishwaguru, echoing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chosen global branding. It didn’t get her a meeting with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. India followed strict protocol. The meeting with Minister of State for External Affairs Meenakshi Lekhi was cordial but unproductive. Ukraine wants India to invite President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to speak via video link at the G20 heads of government summit in Delhi in September. Dzhaparova carried a letter from Zelenskyy inviting Modi to visit Kyiv in an attempt to loosen Moscow’s grip on Delhi. India has made it clear that neither is possible: there will be no video link for the G20 summit and no visit by Modi to Kyiv in the near future. India is, however, treading carefully. It does not want to be bracketed with the Russia-China axis. At the same time, it is mindful that in the next few months, as president of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), it will chair a heads of government summit with Russia, China and key central Asian countries. India is also part of the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral. Though the RIC is not a particularly active forum, it is still a regional grouping that delivers geopolitical advantages to India. Dzhaparovia’s speech at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA) made it clear what Ukraine wants from India and how Kyiv views the new world order being shaped by the Russia-Ukraine war: “Being with Russia is being on the wrong side of history… Supporting Russia and being with Russia means backing a medieval vision of the world. The suggestion that I brought here is to have a better and deeper relationship with India. And it needs reciprocity. We knocked on the door but it is also up to the owner of the house to open the door.” Looking ahead India has a busy diplomatic season over the next few months. In May, G20 delegates will visit Jammu and Kashmir. China and Pakistan have objected vehemently. Both protests have been ignored. Jammu and Kashmir will showcase the all-round development since the revocation of Article 370: tourism, investment, infrastructure and security. In July, a state visit by Modi to Washington is likely. With Modi and US President Joe Biden both facing re-election in 2024, the visit will have clear political undertones. Modi is keen to ensure that the G20 heads of government summit in New Delhi in September goes as per script. What is that script? First, to make sure that the Russia-Ukraine war does not hijack the summit. That is why Zelenskyy’s plea in his letter to Modi seeking to speak at the summit by video link is a non-starter. Second, India wants the presidents of China, Russia and the United States to be in the same room at the summit. That did not happen at last year’s G20 summit in Indonesia. Vladimir Putin didn’t show up. The big three have more or less confirmed their participation in the G20 summit in Delhi. It will be the first time since the Russia-Ukraine war began on 24 February 2022 that the leaders of the US, Russia and China will come face to face. The third element in the script is India’s determination to ensure that the G20 heads of government communiqué does not get entangled in politics over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. New Delhi wants a clean communiqué focusing on key global issues ranging from climate change (and climate justice), economic cooperation, lowering trade barriers and using technology to catalyse global growth. The two G20 meetings of finance ministers and foreign ministers held earlier this year in India fell prey to big power politics, resulting in no communiqués, just the chair’s statement. An impotent anger The West is quietly furious at India’s neutral stand on the Russia-Ukraine war. Feeding the anger is its helplessness to do much about it. Washington has decided that India is an indispensable counterweight to China. India’s neutrality on Ukraine is a price the US is prepared to pay. Europe is much less prepared to be charitable. It does not regard China as the existential threat the US does. As French President Emmanuel Macron said after his three-day visit to Beijing last week: “Being an ally (of the US) does not mean being a vassal… doesn’t mean that we don’t have the right to think for ourselves.” Macron wants Europe to be a pivot in the axis between the US and China. It does nearly $1 trillion in trade with China. Unlike the US, it has no direct military rivalry with Beijing. Even on Taiwan, Europe has taken a softer stance on a possible Chinese invasion. As Macron said, “Paris supports the One China policy and the search for a peaceful resolution to the situation.” Till Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there had been no land war in Europe since 1945. The Balkan conflict of the 1990s was largely aerial. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which has already cost, on a conservative estimate, over 50,000 lives, has shocked European leaders. China, after years of harsh Covid-19 lockdowns and attacks on leading Chinese companies, has meanwhile embarked on a global charm offensive. It has moderated its wolf diplomacy as it seeks to project hard and soft power in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. A series of European leaders have visited Beijing over the past two months. They ignore China’s “no limits friendship” with Russia even as they bristle at India’s trade and defence ties with Moscow. India has used these double standards to ward off allegations that its neutrality over the Russia-Ukraine war will hurt its economic interests. By 2026, India’s GDP is set to overtake Germany’s GDP to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. A pragmatic, transactional Washington has recognised that the national interests of rising India must be respected. Europe, an older continent, is slower to recognise reality. It will take a little longer to fall in line with a world order it no longer leads. The writer is an editor, author and publisher. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.