Head-on | India rises in Geopolitical Power Index

For years, foreign institutions have ranked countries on various parameters, ranging from the state of democracy, press freedom and religious tolerance to standards of education, human development and economic growth. Many of these rankings and indices are arbitrary. They often lack robust methodology. Several are susceptible to bias. It is imperative therefore to construct a credible India-authored ranking template. My proprietary Geopolitical Power Index (GPI) is a broad-based, curated bi-annual ranking of ten countries that assesses their geopolitical influence (see chart). Using a proprietorial mathematical model to analyse 11 parameters, the GPI measures both the ability and potential of the world’s ten most important countries, dubbed the G10, to project hard and soft power globally.

The 11 parameters that determine the GPI rankings are Economy, Development, Military, Governance, Innovation, Geography, Population, Culture, Religion, History and Diaspora. The GPI ranks countries on a scale of 0-10 across these 11 key criteria which constitute the ingredients of geopolitical power. Each criterion is based on five quantitative and qualitative sub-parameters with statistical weightages. These 55 sub-parameters and sub-indices with their specific weightages are analysed drawing upon a range of databases and a proprietorial methodology. For example, to assess the Economy of each country, the sub-parameters analysed are: per capita income based on purchasing power parity; GDP (again on purchasing power parity); business competitiveness; forex reserves; and fiscal deficit. For the Development parameter, the five sub-parameters are: human development index; poverty levels; literacy rate; civic infrastructure; and education (primary and secondary). Each sub-parameter is assigned a weight. For example, to arrive at the ranking for the Economy, the weights are as follows: per capita income (25 per cent); GDP (25 per cent); business competitiveness (15 per cent); forex reserves (15 per cent); and fiscal deficit (20 per cent). The country rankings are computed mathematically using a proprietorial methodology. GPI rankings are dynamic. A country trends up, down or sideways. These trendlines are denoted in the accompanying chart by (+) or (-) markings; sideway trends are unmarked. The GPI captures trends. By definition, its rankings are forward-looking.

The GPI 2022 (H2) rankings for July-December 2022 show that India, placed third with an aggregate of 72 points, is rising steadily in broad-based global rankings. The United States stays on top (78 aggregate points), followed by China in second place (74 points). India scores well (7+) on Economy, reflecting the country’s relatively robust GDP growth rate, estimated at 6.8 per cent in 2022-23. Nouriel Roubini, not known as an India optimist, said recently that the country could grow at 7 per cent in 2023-24. Roubini’s reasoning: “First, India’s population is now the largest in the world and it is young and growing — that’s a source of high potential growth. Second, per capita income is still much lower than China’s. With the right policy, potential growth could be 7 per cent or even higher. Third, India is also going to become a major geo-economic and geopolitical power.” The Reserve Bank of India agrees. In its State of the Economy report issued on 17 February, 2023, the RBI said: “Taking the Economic Survey’s growth projection of 6.5 per cent as the base, the Union Budget’s tax, capex and fiscal consolidation proposals can take India’s real GDP growth close to 7 per cent in 2023-24 if they are effectively implemented.” This would make India the fastest-growing economy among the G10 in the GPI. India, however, does poorly on Governance (4-). Academic institutions have been compromised. Far too many universities have vice-chancellorship vacancies. The Right to Information (RTI) Act needs to be more transparent. Scientific institutions are increasingly vulnerable to pseudo-science in the mistaken belief that this enhances India’s civilisational ethos. India scores well on Military (7+). The standoff with China will complete three years in April 2023. During this difficult period, India has not only held its ground but accelerated the creation of infrastructure— roads, bridges, tunnels, all-weather military camps and air strips— along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The rapid indigenisation of defence equipment is a long-term game-changer in the geopolitical balance of power in the region. China, ranked second overall, does poorly on Governance (3-), reflecting President Xi Jinping’s autocratic rule. While China has emerged relatively unscathed from the Covid-19 pandemic, its shrinking and ageing population will slow future economic growth. The argument advanced by Chinese analysts that automation and artificial intelligence (AI) will neutralise China’s demographic decline does not stand up to scrutiny. According to a recent United Nations study, China’s population will fall to half its current level of 1.42 billion by the end of this century. That is a ticking time bomb. China also scores poorly on Religion (3-). It continues to target Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang and Buddhists in Tibet. The US expectedly tops the GPI chart. Its formidable Military (9+) projects power globally. It leads the world in Innovation (9) as well, but does poorly on race and Religion (6-). The US Economy (7) remains resilient. Inflation is cooling and jobs growth robust. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle will taper later in 2023, signalling an uptick in GDP growth. The Russia-Ukraine war has helped US defence companies make record profits. But European economies have borne the brunt of the grinding conflict. Britain barely escaped recession with 0.1 per cent growth in the October-December 2022 quarter. “Bregret” (regret over leaving the European Union) has replaced Brexit as the most favoured word in Britain. Germany and France meanwhile are in no better shape. On the Economy, Germany (6) faces a crisis of confidence as does France (5-). Both countries have deep structural problems made worse by trade disruptions due to the war in Ukraine. France (68 aggregate points), Britain (67) and Germany (65) are ranked from number 4 to 6 in the GPI followed by Brazil (64) at number 7. The disappointment is Japan (63) which, despite being the world’s third largest economy, is placed at number 8 in the GPI. The reason is partly demographic. Japan is the world’s oldest country with the average Japanese being 48.6 years old. In comparison the average Indian is just 28 years old. The economic ramifications of an ageing workforce could be Japan’s nemesis. Bringing up the rear at numbers 9 and 10 in the GPI rankings are Russia and South Africa. Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has hobbled its economy and weakened its military. The Russian army has coped poorly with the much smaller Ukrainian armed forces. South Africa faces both political and economic headwinds. Its economy limped along at 1.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2022. President Cyril Ramaphosa remains under pressure to deepen economic reforms and stem corruption. The half-yearly geopolitical rankings for the GPI (July-December 2022) across 11 parameters, each with 5 sub-parameters (55 variables in all), are dynamic. The next GPI 2023 (H1) in August 2023 will rank the G10 between January and June 2023 — a period that promises to be both disruptive and challenging. The writer is an editor, author and publisher. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.