Hamas attack on Israel: An orchestrated move to dismantle West’s dominance in Middle East

As Hamas attacked Israel and took a number of Israelis as hostages, the country’s immediate priority remains to get them released and restore its citizens’ faith by massive retaliation. However, amidst all this chaos and brutality, some of the most intriguing questions are: What motivated Hamas to launch this attack? What were the objectives? And most importantly, is it just Hamas and some regional players, or is it a much larger move on the geopolitical chessboard by major powers to attain goals with much larger and long-term geopolitical ramifications? Ultimately, who is most likely to benefit from this situation as it escalates? Though it’s too early to make any conclusive judgement, an exploration into the real reasons and actors behind the attack merits serious attention. First and foremost, it must be acknowledged that Israel’s mighty intelligence and security juggernaut failed to predict this attack. Such a massive and large-scale attack cannot be a spontaneous or short-term move. Even an amateurish intelligence analysis is sufficient to surmise that an attack of this intensity and lethality must have been a result of long-term planning, with far-reaching objectives. Not much thought has gone into this question and so far, most of the analysis has focussed on Hamas, its immediate objectives, and Israel’s policy constraints. Former US envoy to Israel Martin Indyk, in his interview with Foreign Affairs, has blamed Tel Aviv’s hubris for the attack, stating, “Part of the reason was hubris—an Israeli belief that sheer force could deter Hamas and that Israel did not have to address the long-term problems.” He argues that the situation in Gaza had become unsustainable and the Israeli government was addressing the Palestinian concerns in Gaza. The problem with this argument is that it puts its sole emphasis on Hamas and Palestinians’ frustration, anger, and resentment against Israelis for the latter’s expanding settlements. However, in world politics, transnational militant groups and state actors act mostly out of pure geopolitical considerations to achieve certain well-defined objectives. Such decisions like attacking an enemy territory, in most cases are the result of closed-door deliberations and analytical brainstorming based on rational and pragmatic considerations conducted by their strategic experts, military commanders, senior intelligence officials, political leaders, and diplomats. Second, Israel with its vast army of intelligence agencies, expert analysts, and high-tech sophisticated intelligence infrastructure was least expected to act with hubris and completely brush aside ground reports sent by the field agents regarding the simmering discontent and grievances among the Palestinians. Israel is a functional and democratic state led by elected leaders and professional bureaucracy in diplomacy, intelligence, and security agencies, unlike a theocratic state led by religious clergy. In the case of a theocratic state, one can expect decision-making on emotional and religious grounds; however, Israel, blinded by hubris in its policy-making, seemed far too unrealistic. Third, breaching Israel’s high-tech anti-infiltration grid, thermal sensors, and tight border security controls requires systematic planning and expertise which takes time. Ambassador Indyk rightly mentions that Hamas played a classic deception technique. Things were quiet on the border. About 19,000 Palestinian workers crossed into Israel for work every day, which benefited the economy and brought tax revenues. Hence, the Israelis believed that they were looking for a long-term ceasefire, interested in a ‘live-and-let-live’ kind of arrangement. If that’s the case i.e., the attack being a result of long-term planning, then there is a strong possibility that some larger-level geopolitical considerations have formed the basis of this invasion, which I will discuss in this piece, later. Another crucial reason and motivation that comes from strategic speculation is Hamas’ game plan to sabotage the Abraham Accords and the upcoming Saudi-Israel peace deal. Such an attack in which a rag-tag terrorist organisation inflicts massive damage to a powerful country like Israel in terms of casualties and its overall credibility is likely to embarrass those Arab states seeking normalisation and friendly ties with Israel, in a big way. Also, following the attack, Israel has undertaken massive retaliation in Gaza, in which civilians are dying. This will put tremendous pressure on the Arab states. Hard-pressed to safeguard their credibility in the eyes of their population and domestic religious constituency, they will desist from signing any peace accord with Israel. This disruption will also suit other major players like China and Iran. If the Arab states are able to find peace and modus vivendi with Israel, a pro-West economic, security, and tech giant, then it will be tantamount to strengthening the West’s influence and power in West Asia, which will lead to further isolation of Iran and weakening of China. A tweet by Amrullah Saleh, former chief of Afghanistan’s premier intelligence agency, offers a more simplistic explanation. As an expert on Islamist terrorist groups like ISIS, Taliban, etc. he has read many of their playbooks on the spectacular urban attacks. Quoting excerpts from some of them, he tweeted, “Humiliate your enemy and show he is incapable of defending the civilians and the civilian infrastructure. Make him angry and vengeful. Let him use his weapon and military power in anger which will lead to civilian casualties. This way you practically bring him into the field of your choosing. It is the age of information so use the images of the civilian casualties in your favour and generate sympathy. Break the myth of his ‘State status’. If he keeps killing and causing civilian casualties, you win. If he stops the fight you win. If he chases you through a surgical operation, it will not satisfy his ego. The ensuing stalemate will be in your interest. Keep planning. Never pay attention to the so-called cry of the civilians. They may be set up by your enemy. Aim to break the will of the population and shatter their confidence in their state. All societies are vulnerable”. In accordance with the above-mentioned objectives, it is reasonable to conclude that Hamas intended to humiliate and embarrass Israel, deal a severe blow to its image of a strong state that can be trusted for its robust and effective intelligence and counter-terrorism machinery, shatter the morale of its citizens and rupture their faith in the state institutions, and finally draw Israel into the quagmire of more and more civilian killings in its retaliatory attacks in densely-populated Gaza strip. However, any comprehensive analysis cannot confine itself to the simplistic explanation discussed above. The above-mentioned analysis comes from the routine playbooks of terrorist organisations engaged in asymmetric warfare. Nevertheless, a look at the larger factors merits serious attention. In the existing global order, the West is facing a huge challenge from revisionist states like Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey. These states, along with other countries like Azerbaijan, North Korea, etc. more or less constitute an anti-western block, committed to dismantling the foundations of the world order led by Western powers. In this exercise, irrational and insane policy choices by the West facilitate the game plan of anti-West powers like China, Russia, and Iran. On one hand, Russia has embroiled the US and European powers in a bloody and brutal war of attrition on Ukraine, which seems to be a never-ending conflict on the verge of nuclear escalation at any time. On the other hand, more recently, in another blow to the West, Azerbaijan, backed by Islamist states like Turkey and Pakistan, forcefully occupied Nagarno-Karabakh and drove the Christian population out. The ongoing Israel-Hamas war, in all likelihood, appears to be another front to engage the West into a long-drawn conflict and shatter its global supremacy. The Israel-Hamas war shows all signs of escalation. Iranian proxy, Hezbollah has already commenced attacks on Israel. With its stockpile of 1,50,000 rockets, it can cause huge destruction in Israel. Israel’s massive retaliatory action in Gaza is resulting in a large number of civilian casualties. Fighting in a densely populated area also risks the lives of Israeli soldiers. Already, Hamas has abducted hundreds of Israeli citizens. Hence, it seems that Israelis will be drawn into a long-drawn and protracted conflict. Further, if Iran directly joins this, there is a strong likelihood of this localised conflict escalating into a full-fledged conventional war, involving a large number of regional and global players. Compounding Iran’s problem will be the international pressure that will come as a result of civilian casualties. Also, it will puncture the pro-Israel Western powers’ lofty claims on democracy and human rights and embarrass them. Notably, pro-Palestine protests have already started in many Western capitals. Finally, if the West is busy in regional conflict theatres like Ukraine and Gaza, is it not China that gets a window to launch a major offensive against Taiwan or on the Himalayan borders with India? In the second scenario, it can prompt Pakistan to open a second front and intensify internal unrest and terrorist activities in Kashmir and the other parts of the Indian hinterland. India’s Modi government, perceived as an ally of the US and Israel, will face tremendous heat from the Muslim world in such a scenario. Having raised this question, I would like to state that exploring the role of anti-western powers like China in orchestrating and inciting the current conflict may be a purely speculative exercise as of now; nevertheless, the fact remains that they stand to gain from the outcomes of such a persisting and long drawn conflict in the Middle East, which will help weaken the West’s strategic footprint in West Asia. In addition to the reasons mentioned above, the conflict situation will be a major setback to the recently announced India-Middle East-Europe-Economic Corridor ( IMEC). Announced on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Delhi, IMEC was to bypass Pakistan, and Israel was a quintessential partner in the project, along with UAE, Saudi, and some European countries. In several strategic quarters, it was hailed as instrumental to strategic connectivity in West Asia and a major challenge to China’s BRI. If the prospects of IMEC weaken, undoubtedly China stands to gain from this. Likewise, if the Abraham Accords face a dark future resulting in the weakening of the US influence, China, its close ally Iran, and other anti-West powers benefit from that. Finally, as mentioned above the systematic planning and fine deception that characterised the Hamas attack, along with the breaching of Israel’s robust and high-tech anti-infiltration grid further strengthens the possibility of the role of the anti-Western powers, particularly, China in planning and orchestrating this masterpiece of a geopolitical move. The writer is the founder and CEO of Usanas Foundation, a foreign policy and national security thinktank. A Cornell University grad in public affairs, and the author of Radicalisation in India: An Exploration. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.