Hamas attack on Israel: A wake-up call for India as dormant terror threats lurk

As the horror of the Hamas attack unfolds and Delhi watches events closely, some disturbing aspects of the conflict needs close attention in terms of our own neighbourhood. That Israeli intelligence was apparently taken by surprise is one part of this, but what should interest us is the fact that the ‘enemy’ took great pains to present itself as defeated and interested only in financial gains, while quietly preparing itself for the deadly assault. In recent years, Delhi has been quietly congratulating itself with justification for the huge drop in terrorist attacks in Kashmir and almost none at all in the rest of India with Manipur being a separate example altogether. But the enemies are there, some of these in close alliance with each other. It’s time to wake and smell the coffee.

Early signs that Israel ignored

In the case of Israel, as now it appears that the warning signs were overwhelming. Reports spoke of open training with mock ups of Israeli settlements used for exercises, one just 720 metres from a heavily policed Israeli area. The Washington Post notes that Hassan Nasrallah held an online meeting in March with all elite strategists from Iran backed militias and asked them to prepare for war. That such a conference would not have been spied on or seen a good amount of cyber snooping seems improbable. CNN analysed training videos of Hamas over two years and found clear evidence of the plans being hatched. Most analysts ascribe the apparent failure as Israel’s hubris over its huge victories in the past. Also evident was a debilitating internal battle over ‘reforms’ to curtain the powers of the judiciary sparked huge protests. In other words, the top leadership was more involved in power struggles than possible intel warnings. That these would not have emanated from somewhere within the system is highly unlikely. Moroever, it seems that Hamas also took an unprecedented intelligence tactic of presenting itself as defeated and war weary to the extent that it even accepted public condemnation from other groups like Fatah and taking no part in attacks by other Gaza based groups like Fatah.

The quiet terrorists

In the Indian context, there was a degree of overconfidence following the abrogation of Article 370 with some believing that the Kashmir issue had been largely resolved. This optimism was further fuelled by the fact that there had been no instances of infiltration into the valley throughout the year. That led in part to the casualties at Kokernag where the hunt for those who did the attack is still on. That attack was claimed as ‘ ‘revenge’ for the killing of LeT commander Riyaz Ahmed , codenamed Qasim, who was shot dead inside the Al-Qudus mosque in the Rawalakot region of PoK on 8 September. This was the fourth such killing in Pakistan in recent days. Earlier Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed escaped a bomb blast near his home in Lahore June, 2021. His son narrowly escaped a blast in 2019 at a religious conference. That is nearly two years of targetted assassinations or attempts, which Pakistanis believe came from India. Yet, the group has remained extremely quiet. However, the 13th report of the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team observe that LeT earlier assessed as providing finance and training expertise to Taliban operations, reported LeT heads like Mawlawi Yousuf and Mawlawi Assadullah, met with Taliban Deputy Interior Minister Noor Jalil.

In January 2022, a Taliban delegation visited a training camp used by LeT in the Haska Mena district of Nangarhar. The report notes three camps in Kunar and Nangarhar. Interestingly, those LeT members who joined ISIS, like Aslam Farooqi and Ejaz Ahmad Ahangar have suffered. One was arrested and the other recently shot in Rawalkot. It may well be that there are other motivations to these killings. The UN Report also notes that Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) “maintains eight training camps in Nangarhar, three of which are directly under Taliban control”. That is worrying, especially as Jaish cadre Shahid Latif was also recently shot in Daska in Sialkot. In sum, the groups are training and very much in Pakistan, and operational, but quiet.

Not a ‘far away’ Khalistan issue

The danger is even greater because all our attention is on the so called ‘Khalistan’ issue, which in its entirety, is seen not as a threat, but as an insult to India, given the outrageous threats and actions by a group in a country far away. The standard line in the discourse here is that separatism has no place in Punjab anymore. This may be true, but the crowds that surrounded Amritpal Singh in his road show last year, seems to indicate some support, especially given the number of arrests of Waris de Punjab leaders. Though his arrest created no waves, it inevitably resulted in a spate of Khalistan protests simultaneously through four countries – UK, US, Australia and New Zealand. That shows considerable planning and funding. Thereafter the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar is widely being propagated as an Indian assassination, all of which is aimed at sowing dissent within the country. Backing this is the spate of narcotics seizures along the western borders in which the Khalistan Tiger Force has a strong hand. The Khalistan issue has both funding and possible local support to an extent. This grouping – which created protests in five countries – has shown a strong motivation to upset the Indian apple cart. Their activities are likely to rise strongly before elections in India.

Right internal climate

As of now, the whole government apparatus is tuned towards general elections next year. It is at this time that political rallies mean maximum and unavoidable exposure for politicians of all hues. It is true that Indian intelligence gathering would be at an all-time high during this period, especially where the prime minister and cabinet ministers are concerned. But even given the high capabilities of both internal and external agencies, there is only so much that can be covered, especially as ‘traditional’ threats including the likelihood of open war needs to be evaluated, as well as a troubled neighbourhood. Any attack at this time against a reasonably high echelon of leadership and claimed by a terrorist group could lead to a massively destabilizing backlash against minority groups in particular. It could be argued that Pakistan is hardly likely to want to risk a devastating military retaliation at this point of time. But here’s the thing. In the case of the Hamas attack, there is a view that the group may have overachieved to its own surprise. While Iran certainly provisioned Hamas, it is unlikely it would have sanctioned this level of attack. The Israeli military has yet to link Iran to the attack. In other words, a powerful enough group may go for a ‘target of opportunity’ and thereby overreach its own objectives.

A melting pot of agendas

And on top of all this, remember that the Palestine movement is closely aligned with the Kashmir question, a point that has been made by experts with the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement that supports Palestine now including Kashmir in its website. Meanwhile protests have broken out in Budgam in Kashmir in support of the Palestinian cause. While the latter is part of the general support seen worldwide, the former is not. It involves such entities like the Jamaat-e-Islami in Pakistan while the Kashmir fronts are in turn intertwined with the Khalistani organisations in the US and elsewhere. The whole has become a melting pot of agendas, making up an intelligence nightmare.

In sum, the possibility of a Lashkar or Jaish backed strike against India on a larger scale than before is a possibility. Operationally, it will be entirely unlike the Hamas attack, in concentrating on the Indian heartland – including Gujarat – and symbols of national importance. Given the precedence of the Mumbai attacks, casualties among civilians would be expected. The point is whether Pakistan will sanction such a strike. If it does, it would be on the back of an assurance from its ‘iron brother’ on a protective shield. That at present, seems a little unlikely, but can’t be ruled out. Besides this, are myriad other actors who may seek to bring down the present government by a peg or two. The field is actually wide open.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s_ views.

Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .