Global Watch | Pakistan’s failure to deal with twin Taliban can lead to Af-Pak clash

Pakistan is grappling with the challenge of offensives from the twin Taliban - Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Taliban ruling in Afghanistan. In the context of this challenge and some recent developments related to this challenge, a Pakistan-Afghanistan clash seems to be imminent. The indications came as the Pakistan government has made it clear that it is all set to deport one million Afghans allegedly staying illegally in Pakistan. This indication should be seen in the context that in the past nine months of this year, Pakistan’s security forces lost at least 386 personnel, including 137 army soldiers, taking the toll to an eight-year high. Where has Pakistan gone wrong? In September 2021 immediately after the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, then Pakistan’s Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI) Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed said that with its western border taken care of, the entire focus of Pakistan would be on the East (facing India). However, Lieutenant General Hameed might have rejoiced a little too early about his victory in establishing the Taliban firmly in Afghanistan which was primarily to counter India’s growing influence in Afghanistan. Since 2021 after capturing power, the Taliban has defied its main benefactor Pakistan. Pakistan has failed to persuade the Taliban government to toe its line on various international issues. The perennial issue of the legitimacy of the controversial “Durand Line” is also adding fuel to the fire. A major contentious issue is the covert support by Afghan agencies to TTP carrying out attacks inside Pakistan. This is in stark contrast to what Pakistan (in particular the Pakistan Army) had expected from the Taliban after lending their unflinching support to the Taliban for years. To oblige the Taliban government post “fall of Kabul” the Pakistan government and Pakistan Army were seen as more than forthcoming in supporting the Taliban government, especially after the withdrawal of US and the coalition forces. Pakistan Army had expected that the Taliban would be beholden to the Pakistan establishment out of gratitude. However, with rising casualties of Pak Security Forces at the hands of TTP during the last year, the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have nosedived. Many experts feel that this bitter relationship would soon lead to imminent violent border clashes between these two unstable neighbouring countries. Genesis of TTP/Pakistan Taliban TTP or Pakistan Taliban is not a standalone organisation but an umbrella organisation of around 40 various Islamist armed militant groups along the Afghan-Pakistan border. They follow what you may call the ‘Taliban ideology’. TTP has been lending its support to the Afghan Taliban since 2001 in its operations against allied Forces in Afghanistan. However, it officially came into the foreground in 2007 under its leader Baitullah Mehsud. Among the stated objectives of TTP is resistance against the Pakistani state. The TTP’s aim is to overthrow the government of Pakistan by waging an armed campaign against the Pakistan security forces and the state. The TTP is deeply entrenched in the tribal belt  along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border, from which it draws hordes of recruits. Battered by years of factionalism and infighting, the TTP under the leadership of Noor Wali Mehsud underwent reorganisation and reunification in 2020. Mehsud has essentially steered the TTP in a new direction, sparing civilians and ordering assaults only on security and law enforcement personnel, in an attempt to refurbish the group’s image and distance them from the Islamic State (IS). As per the Pakistan Army, around 220 soldiers and officers of Pakistan forces have been killed by TTP in 2023 alone. The TTP’s escalating campaign of violence is a function of its growing political and material strength; reflected in its growing political acceptability, and expanding cadre of trained fighters, suicide bombers, weapons and equipment. Much of the TTP’s political leadership and capability is based in Afghanistan. In Pakistan, the TTP has regained territorial influence in southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, like South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Tank, Bannu and Lakki Marwat. Dilemma of Afghan Taliban As the Afghan Taliban came into power, its government started facing teething problems related to running a country as the government there is not recognised globally. The fighters who had been waging war against the USSR and later against the Allied Forces were finding it difficult to adjust to the nuances of polity and diplomacy. But, the Afghan Taliban like any other ruling government of a nation does recognise Afghanistan’s strategic interests, especially those related to territorial integrity, internal security and economy. It is because of its geopolitical and domestic political compulsions that the Taliban government seek to maintain a balance between TTP and Pakistan’s interest. One of the arguments is that at the heart of the Taliban-TTP relationship is an ideological alignment on a jihadist project seeking to implement a Shariah-compliant political order through force in Pakistan. The TTP subordinating themselves to the Taliban by pledging allegiance to the Taliban chief strengthens this alignment. Others point to history viz, many in the TTP supported the Taliban in its nascence in many ways that included providing suicide bombers. Further, there are strong interpersonal, war-time bonds between the influential Haqqani family and the TTP and between some southern Taliban leaders and TTP’s political leadership. Also, there is abundant ethnic amity, built around tribal ties and disdain of the Pakistani state. Given this history and context, one explanation for the Taliban’s post-takeover position is that they want to use the TTP as bargaining leverage with Pakistan. A competing perspective is that the Taliban wants a like-minded political actor such as the TTP to ultimately rise to power in Islamabad. Finally, some Afghan opposition leaders see the Taliban’s position and the TTP violence as an elaborate ruse by Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency, the ISI, to absolve itself of supporting the Taliban over the last many years. Dilemma of Pakistan As brought out earlier the Pakistan Army’s plan to tame TTP through the Taliban government in Kabul has failed miserably and it is unlikely to succeed in future. It is likely that sensing the futility of such an arrangement Pakistan government had agreed to a ceasefire with TTP but that too has failed. It is evident from TTP’s stand that it will continue to pursue its aim of establishing a Shariah-compliant political order in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. This implies that it would continue to target Pakistan forces. Given the strong ethnic affinity of Pashtuns in the region, TTP is likely to continue to enjoy support from the locals on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghan borders. Under the given scenario with rising causalities of Pakistan security forces, the most likely option available to Pakistan (under pressure from the Pakistan Army) would be to undertake cross-border operations inside Afghanistan to deter TTP leadership. It is important to note that the rising Pakistani forces’ causalities are a major cause of embarrassment to the Pakistan Army which is also known as Pakistan’s ‘Deep State’. In the given scenario, one can’t rule out that the Pakistan Army would be able to convince the interim Pakistan government to launch an offensive against the TTP across Afghan borders. It will be interesting to see to what extent the interim Pakistan government would be able to resist the agenda of the Pakistan Army. The recent statements from Pakistan’s former defence minister Asif Khwaja, and ex-foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto and the statement from DG ISPR(publicity arm of ISI) indicate that the offensive against TTP in Afghanistan is under consideration in Pakistan. It is believed that targets for the same have been carefully chosen and the process is at the final stages of planning and execution. The lack of support from the Taliban dispensation in Afghanistan, growing resentment in the Pakistan security forces and society and the forthcoming general elections are acting as catalysts for this offensive. Incidentally, if the Pakistan Army undertakes such a cross-border operation, it would not be the first of its kind against Afghanistan. On 21 April, 2022, in a major escalation, Pakistan Airforce carried out coordinated airstrikes inside Afghanistan at suspected TTP locations but ended up killing civilians. In response, the Taliban had summoned Islamabad’s envoy in Kabul. Taliban’s defence minister, Mullah Yaqub, had threatened retaliation I case of any further attacks, albeit without naming Pakistan. With the rhetoric of more cross-border strikes gaining momentum in Pakistan, there is a strong possibility that it resorts to such a misadventure which would certainly draw the ire of the Afghan government. Meanwhile, limited attacks through helicopters and drones are also getting reported in Zhob, Afghanistan. Conclusion Given the deteriorating relations between the Taliban government ruling in Afghanistan and the Pakistan government controlled by its army, the security agencies in Pakistan are under intensive pressure to act decisively against TTP as neither Afghanistan Taliban nor Pakistani security forces have been able to stop growing attacks by TTP in Pakistan. Therefore, at an opportune moment, Pakistani security forces could do a quick cross-border strike. This action however could precipitate the crisis with a strong reaction from the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The risk of this escalation of crisis has been the reason that such actions have been deferred repeatedly by the Pakistan Army in the past despite its complete readiness. However, it is a catch-22 situation for the Pakistan Army. In case it chooses to remain defensive, it is going to suffer more causalities at the hands of TTP. This too would further damage the already deteriorating relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This would also dent the credibility of the Pakistan Army, which has already hit the bottom. The writer is an author and columnist and has written several books. He tweets @ArunAnandLive. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.