Global Watch | Eclipsing the dragon: Growing shadows of intense power struggle in China

Chinese political and military establishments seem to be at loggerheads as Xi Jinping’s purge continues to target military leaders and his colleagues in the top echelons of Chinese Communist Party (CCP). There have been a number of unresolved high-profile disappearances over the last few months that includes Defence Minister Li Shangfu and Foreign Minister Qin Gang. There have been untimely dismissals of Li Yuchao and Xu Zhongbo of the Rocket Forces. These removals, dismissals and disappearances indicate that there is an intense power struggle within the CCP and Xi’s leadership is facing a serious threat from within. However, due to the strict censorship and state control on the media within China, the extent of threat has been underplayed by the Chinese media. Except for keen China watchers, who are far and few, the world largely thinks that all is well in China and Xi is an unchallenged leader. Nothing could be far away from the ground realities. A massive slump in the real estate sector, a strong downturn in the Chinese economy and rampant corruption has led to a strong section of CCP as well as the Chinese people raising serious doubts about Xi’s leadership capability. Xi’s response has come out in the form of a purge which is a classical symptom of an implosion in a communist authoritarian system. The state of affairs in China and the crackdown on dissidents within the CCP reminds one of Stalin’s purges in the Soviet Union. The Chinese communist regime has followed the same model ever since it usurped the power in 1949. The so-called ‘Chinese Cultural Revolution’ that started in the 1960s and lasted up to 1976 resulted in the deaths of more than two million people. The fact is that Mao Zedong had launched a nationwide purge in the name of ‘cultural revolution’ killing all the dissidents within CCP. Anyone who raised questions on Mao’s policies or capability as a leader was imprisoned or killed. Now Xi is following in Mao’s footsteps. Chinese narrative of ascending superpower One narrative that has dominated international discourse since the beginning of the 21st century has been that China is poised to become the next global power. However, a closer examination of the contemporary issues and challenges confronting China indicate that China is getting increasingly marginalized internationally and along with that it is facing an internal political crisis. The Communist Party of China (CCP) appears to be keen on minimising publicity in the international arena regarding its internal conflicts and growing insecurities. It has been allocating considerable resources to manage its global image on this front. Xi admits to the growing insecurities President Xi Jinping has also acknowledged the uncertainties surrounding his leadership position in China. According to an August 2022 report in The New York Times, “Over informal, private meals with American leaders, China’s Xi Jinping let his guard down a little. It was a decade ago, relations were less strained, and Mr. Xi, still cementing his power, hinted he worried about the Chinese Communist Party’s grip.” The report added, “Speaking privately with President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, Mr. Xi suggested that China was a target of “color revolutions,” a phrase the party adopted from Russia for popular unrest in the name of democracy and blamed on the West. The recent “Arab Spring” uprisings across the Middle East had reinforced his concerns that China was vulnerable to public anger over corruption and inequality, both of which the country had in abundance.” “Xi couldn’t have been more forthright that China is beset by malevolent forces and internally prey to centrifugal forces,” said Daniel R. Russel, a former senior American diplomat who accompanied Mr. Biden to China in 2011, says this NYT report further adding, “He(Xi) would talk all the time about color revolutions. That’s clearly a sort of front-of-mind issue for him,” said Ryan Hass, the National Security Council director for China when Mr. Xi later visited the White House.” CCP insiders have also highlighted on several platforms that Xi Jinping is finding it increasingly difficult to handle issues both at the domestic and international front. Xi’s efforts to broaden the national security’s scope to encompass both military and civilian sectors betray his intent to consolidate power, possibly to surround himself with loyalists. With the Ministry of National Security reframing the concept of national security as “People’s War”. Thus, the distinction between internal and external domains in the Chinese establishment is fading away. High profile disappearances under Xi’s watch Amidst significant diplomatic activities, China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been conspicuously missing since June 25, 2023. His extended absence, which was initially attributed to “health reasons”, was later erased from official documents. This underscored the authoritative approach of the CCP under Xi Jinping’s leadership in exerting control over state matters and circumventing accountability. Speculation arose that the minister’s purported dismissal and absence were linked to corruption allegations against him. Yet, some sources indicate that his removal by Xi was due to concerns about his loyalty. On 6vJune, 2023, Wu Guohua, Deputy Commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, is reported to have committed suicide. This coincided with Xi’s inspection of the Eastern Theatre Command. The official statement by PLA stated that this happened due to a cerebral hemorrhage. The ambiguity surrounding the high-ranking officer’s demise prompts inquiries about the CCP’s control over the PLA, especially given that PLA has demonstrated loyalty to the Communist Party of China rather than the Chinese citizenry. In July 2023, Xi Jinping abruptly restructured the leadership of China’s Rocket Forces. State media revealed Gen Li Yuchao and his deputy Gen Liu Guangbin was replaced by naval officer Wang Houbin and air force officer Xu Xishen, neither of whom have previous experience in this domain. This suggests Xi’s aim to unify the nuclear arsenal command across the armed forces. As China expands its nuclear program, Xi emphasizes loyalty within the PLA, especially from those overseeing nuclear capabilities. His “selective” anti-corruption drive has affected numerous military officers, causing divisions within the ranks in support for Xi’s military objectives. Similarly, Defense Minister Li Shang Fu of China was last publicly seen on 29 August, 2023 during a speech at the China-Africa Forum in Beijing. Subsequent to this, his visibility diminished amidst emerging allegations of corruption. Several Defence Ministry officials were arrested right after the disappearance of the defence minister. The list includes: Ø Li Shiquan, Chairman of China North Industries Corporation. Ø Yuan Ze, chairman of China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation. Ø Chen Guoying, general manager of China North Industry Group Corporation. Ø Tan Ruisong, Chairman of China Aviation Industry Corporation. This has spurred speculation on internal political strategies, potentially highlighting President Jinping’s power consolidation efforts. A similar absence of the foreign minister earlier this year, coupled with past patterns, suggests Jinping’s tactic to mitigate potential leadership threats and surround himself with loyal subjects. Xi’s recent maneuvers and absence from the G20 Leadership Summit despite the request from President Biden of the US appear as a desperate bid to bolster loyalty within party ranks. Nevertheless, there appears to be a growing sentiment of uncertainty within the party regarding his leadership. At the annual Beidaihe meeting, a summit of veteran leaders of the CCP in Hebei Province, President Xi reportedly faced severe criticism from senior party officials. The leaders expressed loss of confidence in Xi’s leadership and warned him that his failure to resolve these issues could result in a major crisis for the CCP. In all, it seems like Xi Jinping has pressed the ‘panic button’. The multifarious challenges are adversely impacting President Xi’s political trajectory. The carefully built narrative that projected China as an ascending superpower under Xi’s leadership is all set to be the first major casualty of power struggle within the CCP. The writer is an author and columnist and has written several books. He tweets @ArunAnandLive. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views_. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.