Global Watch | Af-Pak relations going down the drain over water sharing dispute

Conflicts over territory are commonplace in international politics. Mostly such conflicts happen on borders. However, issues related to the transboundary waters are increasingly influencing international relations, in wake of the climate change and increasing water demand worldwide. Though in general, cooperation appears to be an option to overcome any conflict over the usage of transboundary waters, in times of mistrust and misperception, to reach such a cooperative mechanism becomes unlikely. And when the threats of water scarcity turn into reality, the issues can be weaponised to put pressure on a particular country to do something that it would otherwise not like to do. The latest developments in the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan demonstrate it aptly. Pakistan “weaponised” the issue of Afghan refugees in Pakistan. This was done to arm-twist the Afghan Taliban to act and curb activities of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a terrorist group fighting against the Pakistan state. However, the Afghan Taliban seems to have played their cards well. Apart from displaying its incapability to control/act against the TTP members within Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban seems to have invoked the issue of distribution of water resources between the two countries to coerce Pakistan to accept Afghanistan’s stand on their alleged inability to act against the TTP. This is also a counter-offensive to the reckless handling of the issue of Afghan refugees’ expulsion and use of Pakistani airspace by American drones against the Taliban. When the Afghan Taliban were in opposition and fighting to get control of Afghanistan, they needed Pakistan and its support to survive their struggle against the United States (US) led foreign troops. Once they took over Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban took to realpolitik in no time. Since then, the relations between the two countries have been deteriorating. They seem to have gone worse than they were during the anti-Taliban forces ruling Kabul. Both Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have been trying to dominate each other on various matters ranging from the rise of terror attacks in Pakistan, fencing of the controversial Durand Line, the issue of Afghan refugees in Pakistan to the latest issue of sharing of water of common rivers. In this dramatic turn of events, even the National Resistance Front (NRF) of Afghanistan led by Ahmad Massoud, according to some, has started to establish contact with Islamabad. This makes sense given Pakistan’s frustration about the Afghan Taliban’s refusal/incapability to act against the anti-Pakistan forces in the Afghan territory. Therefore, it is possible, given this background, that the Afghan Taliban deliberately might have invoked the water-sharing issue or the dam construction on the Kunar River in Kunar Province. It is a reality, however, that the Afghan Taliban have been trying to meet the water scarcity issue in the country by launching a policy of construction of various dams across Afghanistan for water management, mentions Nazir Shinwari in “Ministry Vows to Improve Country’s Water Management”(Tolo News, 04 April 2023). Given the transboundary nature of the various rivers in Afghanistan, the plan is bound to invoke reactions from its neighbouring countries. For example, the construction of the Qosh Tepa canal along the Amu Darya in the Balkh Province would divert 20 per cent of the Amu Darya towards the drought-stricken areas of Northern Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan has raised an issue that the construction might impact the lower riparian areas in these countries, adds Shinwari. Pakistan exploring options After their removal from power in 2001, Islamabad was at the forefront of supporting the Afghan Taliban against foreign troops and the Afghan National Army (ANA) in Afghanistan. Many in Pakistan believed that the pro-Pakistan Afghan Taliban regime would be helpful for Pakistan to deal with security threats from the eastern border. Furthermore, some even may have thought that the Afghan Taliban might recognise the disputed Durand Line as a permanent border between the two countries. Neither of the wishes has come true: Not only have terror attacks in Pakistan increased after the Afghan Taliban took over Kabul but the Durand Line issue has flared up from time to time since the Afghan Taliban’s arrival in Kabul. In the case of the rise of terror attacks in Pakistan, the government of Pakistan has been alleging that the terrorists are coming from Afghanistan inside Pakistan to carry out terror attacks. Islamabad has demanded that the Afghan Taliban should act against the TTP terrorists that operate from Afghan soil. On the refusal/incapability of the Afghan Taliban to act against the TTP, Pakistan finally decided to “put our house in order”, as Interim Prime Minister Anwar-ul Haq Kakar mentioned recently. The decision was to expel what were labelled as “illegal Afghan refugees” staying in Pakistan, many of whom have been accused of being involved in terror attacks. One of the reasons for forcing the Afghan refugees in Pakistan to go back was to build pressure on the Afghan Taliban to behave according to the needs of Islamabad and act against the TTP and other terrorists within Afghanistan. In this background where mistrust between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban remains high their respective (mis)perceptions get enforced by any move made by one as if it is directed at the other. Thus, the move to expel Afghan refugees back inside Afghanistan at a time when the Afghan Taliban is dealing with food scarcity and economic crisis naturally would be a burden on the Afghan Taliban. The reaction from the Afghan Taliban was strong, saying that the decision was “unacceptable”. On the public level, voices were demanding a strong reaction; some even suggested using the commonly shared water as a weapon to punish Pakistan. The recent tirade by the interim Interior Minister of Balochistan, Jan Achakzai against the Afghan Taliban’s what he called “unilateral” decision to construct a dam on the Kunar River makes sense in the existing state of affairs between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. The minister said that the decision “will be considered a hostile act against Pakistan”. The harshness of the language implies that the relations between former friends have turned topsy-turvy. That, however, does not mean that Afghanistan does not have its requirements to deal with the water scarcity issue in the country. Afghan Taliban’s pushback Afghanistan, with or without the Afghan Taliban, anyway, needs better water management to deal with the issue of water scarcity in the country. The country has recorded severe droughts in the last few years, causing severe damage to the agriculture sector, the backbone of the Afghan economy that employs more than 40 per cent of the Afghan national workforce. The Taliban have been trying to deal with the water scarcity issue by continuing the projects launched by the Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani administrations and by launching new projects. In the prevailing situation, expectedly this has not gone well with Pakistan. The confrontation has intensified when both countries are dealing with the water scarcity issue in the absence of a water-sharing agreement. In 2013, the Karzai administration and Islamabad decided to manage the common nine rivers, including the Kabul River and the Kunar River. The first move towards that was the construction of a 1,500MW hydropower project on the Kunar River. This, however, did not achieve much as the issue of water sharing has remained unresolved. The decision by the Afghan Taliban to build the proposed Gambiri dam on the Kunar River to produce 45MW of electricity is seen with scepticism by Islamabad. Meanwhile, the Afghan Taliban needs funds for development projects. Any country that provides funds will be welcomed, including India. Islamabad, however, has already been raising issues with proposed dams on the common rivers. India’s involvement in the construction of dams will be cast in a harsher light, like in the case of the Shahtoot Dam. The existing situation, therefore, it has led to aggravating the existing tension in the bilateral relations. What next? In an environment of mistrust, Pakistan and Afghanistan are going to see each other’s policies antagonistically, especially those that directly or indirectly impact both. Both seem to have their reasons, if the existing state of affairs is taken into account. At the same time, both do not appear to be in a position to do much about it. Terrorism in Pakistan has indeed become a serious issue. Terrorists have been carrying out attacks on important points and causing heavy losses to Pakistan’s security forces, infrastructure and common people. On the other hand, the Afghan Taliban may not be able to act against the TTP members spread all over its vast territory and they have other priorities right now such as providing sufficient food and water to the Afghans. It is, therefore, highly likely that the bilateral relations will remain tense as they are shortly. They can nosedive further in case Pakistan decides to go across the border to hit TTP hideouts. If this happens, the Afghan Taliban could be using the transboundary waters to hit back at Pakistan. In addition, it would give TTP a free hand to attack Pakistan from within. This isn’t an impossible scenario and could become reality much earlier than expected given the way Pakistan’s Afghan policy has crumbled and become a major embarrassment for its ruling elite as well as the deep state. The writer is an author and columnist and has written several books. His X handle is @ArunAnandLive. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.