GhoseSpot | Opposition unites in 'I.N.D.I.A': Why BJP can't rely solely on Modi wave but must fix organisational woes

Call “I.N.D.I.A” repackaging of UPA or giving a new name to “Khichadi”, cynicism apart, there is no denying that with the formation of the new “I.N.D.I.A” front, there is some positive movement towards opposition unity. It would be unrealistic to expect differences will be dissolved or egos will be assuaged in a day. However, two developments are noticeable. First, Congress has come down from its high horse and displaying greater maturity and pragmatism. This is not just towards its allies, such as AAP with whom it has struck a truce on the Delhi Ordinance issue, but even within its own ranks as we saw in Chhattisgarh and, more recently, in Rajasthan. Its willingness to bury the hatchet with Trinamool despite the blood spilled battle in West Bengal, though regrettable, indicates a sense of realism. In a way, it was appropriate that the coffee was smelt in Bengaluru as Karnataka is our main coffee-producing state. However, the magic potion that seems to have worked is the instinct of survival that is heightened among most regional parties where the leaders are close to their sell by dates with the next generation not yet ready to take over the mantle. In the case of Congress, it is apparent that Sonia Gandhi has realised that without her intervention any attempt at “Opposition Unity” is going to be a non-starter. It is also an indication that veterans like Mallikarjun Kharge are finally having their say in the party affairs over the mercurial Rahul Gandhi. There is also a light imprint of Priyanka Gandhi visible. In comparison, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)’s moves come across as a bit muddled so far. In trying to woo back estranged allies of NDA it seems a bit desperate. As indeed its attempts at breaking the ranks of the opposition such as the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and NCP (Ajit Pawar). The heat against opposition leaders through the Enforcement Directorate and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) – perceived by many to have political undertones – are yet to fetch any dividends (unless one considers Maharashtra to be a case in point, though West Bengal can be a counterpoint). As the 2024 elections come closer these moves are likely to yield diminishing returns given the dismal rate of conviction so far and international scrutiny of such investigations which have been successfully portrayed as acts of political vendetta and affected sections of the media and civil society. However, BJP has a bigger problem which is its own organisation. Increasingly it is showing the same symptoms as Congress after each electoral setback. Even after three years, the party is yet to recover from the trouncing of 2021 in West Bengal. In Karnataka, it appears to be still in a state of disarray. When last checked a Leader of Opposition had not been appointed. In Himachal Pradesh, the local leadership seems to have gone into extended hibernation. In Chhattisgarh, there are no signs of revival. No impact of Captain Amarinder Singh, Sunil Jhakhar, and other acquisitions in Punjab is visible yet. It is also unclear how other high-profile inductees like RPN Singh, Jaiveer Shergill are being kept engaged. Now coming to the states going to the polls at the end of the year. BJP appears to have conceded Chhattisgarh to the Congress after TS Singh Deo’s appointment as deputy chief minister. After heavy investment, it seems to have lost the plot in Telangana and a truce with K Chandrasekhar Rao before the Lok Sabha polls cannot be ruled out. In Madhya Pradesh, the party high command seems to have come to terms with letting Shivraj Singh Chouhan call the shots knowing the challenges of “Double Engine Anti-incumbency” (you heard the term first here). But the biggest conundrum is Rajasthan where the BJP is yet to find a credible alternative to Vasundhara Raje. Ashok Gehlot has recovered ground with his populist schemes. Sachin Pilot has been neutralised.  At least for the Vidhan Sabha elections, it looks like advantage Congress. As was seen in Karnataka, Modi, Amit Shah, and JP Nadda will not be able to pull off Rajasthan with a debilitated state unit. Today’s situation is different from 2018-19 when there was a decoupling of issues between Lok Sabha and state elections. Wins in the states are going to provide further wind to the sails of an already buoyant Congress and a pesky Opposition that the BJP cannot afford to ignore. If Modi - Shah have a strategy worked out they are yet to reveal their cards. So far, the only major move of the BJP has been the Uniform Civil Code gambit. Whether it gathers momentum and to what extent it can put the Opposition on the mat will be known during the coming Parliament Session. Besides that, we know it is banking heavily on the Ram Mandir inauguration at the end of the year. Will these alone be enough to ensure consolidation of BJP’s traditional vote bank for countering the opposition mobilisation is a matter of conjecture on which pundits will be wary of placing bets on this date. Meanwhile, Narendra Modi has just completed two hugely successful foreign trips. The G20 is going as per script. Undeniably, Prime Minister Modi’s global stock is at its peak. Some of his erstwhile critics like Shashi Tharoor are now praising the achievements of the Modi government on the foreign policy front. Even Rahul Gandhi had to endorse India’s stand on Russia during his recent visit to the United States. The world is finally acknowledging India’s handling of Covid. No matter how hoarse the cries of naysayers may be, the performance of the Indian economy through the twin crisis of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is for all to see. But one could err by overestimating the impact of these extraneous factors on the domestic electorate as the Vajpayee government did with the India Shining story. With Covid behind us, the dividends of Labarthi schemes are petering out. Issues like Inflation and unemployment are resurfacing making “freebies” attractive. Against this backdrop, it is difficult to imagine BJP can swing 2024 with another Modi wave alone. That is why returning to the basics of setting the house in order is so critical. The rumoured cabinet reshuffle that might send some generals back to the field may be a step in that direction. The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. 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