GhoseSpot | How Narendra Modi plans to fights 25 years of anti-incumbency in Gujarat

I visited Gujarat after a long time. It used to be part of my work beat earlier. But with COVID-19 and travel restrictions I did not get a chance to visit the state in a long time. Living in the south of India as I do, the craving for an authentic Gujarati meal had been building up. Besides, I needed to replenish my stalks of pickles, mathias and khakras. So, when I received an invitation to the wedding of a friend’s daughter in Vadodara, I jumped at it. Though it was a short visit of just two days, a marriage is a great event to meet people from different parts of the state. Thus, it was also an opportunity to get a sense of what was happening in the state — albeit through anecdotal accounts of a small and motley sample group. At first sight nothing much had changed on the surface. Gujaratis had stopped donning masks. Shops and snack bars were as crowded as ever. Egg and pan parlours were doing brisk business. An over-bridge or flyover was under construction. But progress seemed to be slow. Just as, I was told, the Ahmedabad Metro was taking ages to complete. However, my friends and old associates from the cement trade were happy at the Bullet Train project had taken off. As per them, cement consumption for the project had already crossed one lakh tonnes per month and should soon touch three lakh tonnes. Gujaratis are not much bothered about development as long as business is good. Just now life was — if not “jhinga-lala” — reasonably good. What about politics? My friend unlocked the screen of his smartphone to show the barrage of WhatsApp messages from the Aam Aadmi Party asking to give ‘change’ a chance. But as per him and others I met; it still had a long way to go. The AAP’s influence is so far limited to around Surat. There is palpable dissatisfaction with BJP in rural areas that it cannot encash on its own. Things could change if Arvind Kejriwal has a tie-up with Congress, which seems far-fetched. Besides, the Congress is in disarray. If it can do an encore of 2017 then it can give BJP anxious moments because the people still have emotional ties with the party. Can the induction of Naresh Patel make a difference in the fortunes of the Congress? With temple trusts behind him, Patel certainly commands a large base and has the financial muscle. The question, however, is if he can revive the organisation. Recent inductees like Hardik Patel can play spoilsport or even jump ship to the Aam Aadmi Party. The BJP cut its losses in the Patel community by replacing Vijay Rupani with Bhupendra Patel. Rupani, a Jain from Rajkot is a good man but was not effective as chief minister. Patel is a better administrator. But Gujarat is essentially being governed by bureaucrats. And there’s the rub. Complacency and arrogance have set in. Corruption too has been on the rise. They cite the instance of a police officer in Rajkot who was allegedly involved in an extortion racket but could ward off transfer despite reports of his dubious activities. This is where lies the importance of Narendra Modi’s current trip to the state as a follow-through of his earlier visit soon after the Assembly elections in five states. His engagements on both occasions were strategically targeted both in terms of audience connect and rekindling his top of mind recall with the electorate — leaving no doubt that he still rules Gujarat from Delhi. Just look at his itinerary. Starting with a review of the Command-and-Control Centre for Schools interacting with students (read first-time voters for 2024), the massive convention of women stakeholders at Banaskantha Dairy and interaction with tribals in Dahod where he announced a Rs 20,000 crore Railway Electrical Locomotive facilities. Then came the inauguration of the WHO Global Centre for Traditional Medicine at Jamnagar in the presence of the WHO Director Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus, and the Prime Minister of Mauritius kindling Gujarati pride reinforcing Gujarat’s place on the world map with yet another gem. Finally, taking one more head of government, Boris Johnson, to Amdavad and spinning the charkha at Sabarmati Ashram was the icing on the cake. [caption id=“attachment_10585501” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. ANI[/caption] Amit Shah too has been going to Gujarat at frequent intervals almost on the heels of Narendra Modi. Both know only too well the challenges of bringing back a government overcoming 25 years of accumulated anti-incumbency. And Modi-Shah are not ones to get complacent. All this is fuelling speculations of the Gujarat elections being advanced before the opposition gets their act together. Yet, nothing is guaranteed in politics. The mood of the public can change in a flash. Now the BJP seems to be having a clear edge in urban Gujarat. If through the outreach to the OBCs and tribals Modi is able to secure the rural areas as well — it will be an unprecedented achievement that could well set the tone for other Assembly elections and 2024. My hosts were disappointed that I did not budget time for a visit to the “Statue of Unity”. Defying cynics and sceptics it has turned out to be a huge tourist destination as Modi had envisaged. I left with the promise of coming back when the weather improves and probably in time for the polls. The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News ,  Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.