G20 Summit: India a new voice for inclusive world order amid North-South divide

From Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s astounding welcome at the White House to the upcoming Modi-Joe Biden meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi, India’s new-age diplomacy seems to have come of age. The recent events are a recognition of three significant factors. First, the US acceptance of the multi-aligned world order safeguarding its liberal hegemony against the authoritarian rise of China; second, India’s rise as a voice and leader of the Global South; and, third, a crafted and well-calibrated ideological shift from a Eurocentric worldview accommodating a larger canvas for US grand strategy with the Indo-Pacific region at the centre. The US’ acceptance of India as a leader of the Global South is the finest moment in Modi’s foreign policy achievements. India’s repositioning on the world scene is both a success and a hotly debated issue under PM Modi. Its democratic credentials are hugely contested both at home and outside but that didn’t stop diaspora investors and CEOs expressing their admiration for India’s most business-friendly PM. But where does India stand in the shifting multi-aligned world and can it sustain the structural challenges including maintaining a fine balance between the US and US’ adversaries like Russia with whom it has historic relations? India’s foreign policy in multi-align world order Foreign policy fundamentally explains three factors: national interest, national security, and national sovereignty in decision-making. The broader understanding of India’s strategic thinking often understood as non-aligned has been shifting. India both seeks to maintain its position as an independent sovereign nation but also to strategically involve itself as a multi-aligned partner in the new world order. Non-alignment was a principal position chosen by the Nehruvian consensus on foreign policy during the peak of the cold war. Then, India lacked any substantial power assertion in the world, and neutrality was a pragmatist approach not just utopian or idealist as often scholars critique the early phase of Indian foreign policy. Four factors characterise today’s multi-aligned world order. First, there is no single hegemon despite the US still dominating followed by an assertive China. Second, the rise of multiple forums like the G-20, BRICS, SCO, and Quad. Third, the age of globalisation and transnationalism brought many middle powers to emerge in the wake of the weakening US-led unipolar moment and rivalry with rising China particularly in South Asia and SouthEast Asia. The Indo-Pacific is now shifting the Eurocentric worldview to complete the circle of the shifting order and finally the fourth factor: convergence of geopolitics, geo-economics, and geo-strategic. The rise of G-20 is the first significant shift in the order making the world multi-aligned. India’s interests are now multi-aligned. Indian foreign policy is strategically well-defined like in the matter of international loans to Sri Lankan, climate funds for vulnerable Pacific island countries like Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and voice for the African Union and Bangladesh and similar countries. But despite the rise of the Indian story on the world scene, the structural challenges are still powerful. Challenges for Indian foreign policy Conflicts are a constant feature of the world order. The US-China rivalry is a new cold war forcing countries to choose sides, where neutrality could be self-defeating. Perhaps history is rhyming in another form: a new cold war. The rise of Quad, Indo-pacific as a new global national security strategy for US-aligned countries against China, India-US recent bonhomie (tech transfer in the backdrop of India’s technological limitations in supporting its make-in India program and reducing its dependence on Russia for military support) and the unchallenged US coercive diplomacy and strategic power coming from financial institutions and US Dollar a weapon during sanctions as reflected in the case of Iran and now Russia. Another is the globalisation vs de-globalization debate under the guise of conflicts from hot wars to supply chains and maritime navigations. The troubles of the impact of covid-19; the Russian-Ukraine conflict and its impact on the food supply chain and rising global crude prices. India-Russia relations have received much anger in Europe and the US and that would be a real challenge for India. Similarly, China’s assertiveness has put Indian foreign policy on toss and is more complex than the India-Pakistan rivalry. China is a bigger power and a bigger threat from cyber warfare to debt diplomacy encircling India, supporting Pakistan’s proxies activity in Indian territory and safeguarding those non-state actors in the UN security council. India’s position in the Quad is the rebalancing act, its close relations with Taiwan, Vietnam, and US partners like Australia and South Korea in the Indo-Pacific are strategic. But despite growing ties with the US, it requires a more meaningful, coherent, and cohesive long-term policy. The global supply chain is a structural problem that India ought to address carefully. The emphasis is on massive investment in the semiconductor industry, expanding strategic oil storage facilities, and open and rule-based maritime navigation, whether in the Persian Gulf or Suez Canal. The recent close ties with Egypt are fundamentally securing India’s supply chain strategy which is hugely import dependent on crude and fertilisers. Suez is strategically placed between Asia and Europe and any unforeseen situation would hamper India’s strategic equation. Ultimately, these structural challenges for India will shape its foreign policy now and ever. Besides these identified factors among many, Pakistan still is a significant rival and an old guard in the backyard challenging India’s strategic worldview. Pakistan is a structural issue just not a historical rival and despite its self-chosen irrelevance, it does impact India’s position in the multi-aligned order. The last structural challenge would be domestic factors. India must understand that democracy is a strategic currency it has over China and it does matter in converging geostrategic, geopolitics, and geoeconomics. India is now the world’s fifth largest economy and soon will be the third after the US and China but also it has become the most populous nation with a high unemployment rate. Indian foreign policy is aligning with the shifting world order in securing its strategic aims for the Global South. In recent times, at every opportunity including the recent BRICS summit, India is asserting for a greater role in the new world order, demanding a more rightful place for India and the Global South aiming for re-globalisation, de-dollarisation and reforming security council permanent membership. There is no clash of civilizations but a clash of worldview between Global South and Global North and India is at the cusp of becoming the voice for an inclusive new order, but it requires to address structural limitations to lead the Global South. The writer is an Associate Fellow at Berlin-headquartered transnational think-tank The Center for Middle East and Global Order and a former Assistant Prof. at Nelson Mandela Centre for Peace & Conflict Resolution, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, and can be reached at mailpremmishra@gmail.com. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.