G20 Summit: Global climate crisis tests bloc's commitment to security and sustainability

The planet Earth saw three months, June to August 2023, as the hottest ever. For India, it was the hottest August since 1901. Globally, August was estimated to be 1.5° C hotter than the pre-industrial average of years 1850-1900. This warmer trend is predicted to carry till 2027, or maybe even beyond. Global sea surface temperatures have also been at record highs. Antarctica’s sea ice is at its lowest. Earlier this year, the island country of Tuvalu became the first digital nation to move towards the virtual world as climate change threatens its physical territory. People often mix ecological and environmental issues with climate change, these are different issues. Climate change has serious security dimensions. This needs better understanding. Extreme weather results in higher temperatures, wildfires, storms, rising seas, soil degradation, acidification of oceans, melting glaciers and Arctic ice, droughts, flooding, submerging of islands and coastal cities, loss of arable lands, threatens infrastructure, affects health, creates water and food shortages, has economic impact, results in migrations, cultural and demographic tensions, infectious disease outbreaks, or actions by transnational criminal organisations, and much more. All that could result in worsening global tensions, and security. Security implications A series of punishing droughts set the stage for the Syrian civil war in 2011. A drying East Africa fuels ongoing conflicts over natural resources in Somalia and Kenya. Himalayan glaciers are receding and have direct implications for the growing populations of South Asia. Rising seas threaten possible future refugee crises in Southeast Asia. Melting sea ice in the Arctic is opening new shipping lanes, creating new potential for tensions among competing powers. Water and food insecurity made worse by heat waves, droughts, and floods are already increasing the risk of conflict in Egypt, Ethiopia, Iraq, and Jordan. Militaries affected by climate change Climate change is not normally a direct cause of instability and conflict, but is considered a “threat multiplier”, and as such has an important linkage to national security. Climate change has a direct impact on military infrastructure and operations. US naval base at Guam could get flooded driven by sea-level rise and impact operations. So could be the reclaimed Chinese islands in the South China Sea, and the large number of island nations in the Pacific. Wildfires and hurricanes affect US bases in Florida, and permafrost in Canada and Alaska. US Air Force’s massive radar installation on a Marshall Islands atoll is projected to go underwater within two decades. Climate change is being taught in all major military academies. The US Naval War College began studying the topic in the late 1980s. Private think tanks and other organisations have been pointing to threats that climate change poses to peace and stability. US Department of Defence has special directorates in intelligence, and security departments to look at links between climate and security. The White House uses these inputs to guide the national defence priorities and military strategy. Finally, the militaries and security agencies have to walk the fine line. Climate change and India The highest number of glaciers in the world are situated in the Himalayas. India and its neighbours have significant military action on the great mountain range. We are literally sitting on the Siachen glacier. A study published in 2021 found the ice from glaciers in the Himalayas is melting “at least 10 times higher than the average rate over past few centuries”. Himalayas have lost 40 per cent of their ice over last five hundred years. Many glaciers are receding. Glacial movements cause landslides and block roads. These have military implications. Melting glaciers and changes in rainfall patterns can disrupt irrigation systems in South Asia which has been a granary for over 5,000 years. Most of India’s water flows from the Himalayas with origins in China. India is concerned that water could be used as a weapon, by damming it or excessive release. According to the Central Water Commission (CWC), the Brahmaputra receives 40 per cent of its water in Tibet and 60 per cent of it in India. China is not willing to share water data with India. China is also working on weather modification through cloud seeding and more. China has used the Mekong River to make downstream countries subservient to it. The shared river basins in South Asia, such as the Indus, Ganges, Meghna, and Brahmaputra, have had geopolitical tensions, which renders transboundary climate cooperation to deal with water-related problems difficult. The Indus Water Treaty remains an issue between India and Pakistan. Extreme flooding in Pakistan last year had one-third of the country under water. If parts of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were to submerge, India could face a migration crisis. The airfield at Campbell Bay in the Nicobar Islands is just 5 feet above sea level. So is the one at Agatti in Lakshadweep Islands. India and its neighbours have many ports and coastal military stations that could be threatened by sea level rise. India has its share of extreme weather events, with increasing frequency and ferocity of cyclones. We go through significant floods, luckily, though the droughts are hopefully behind us. Imagine India having a weak monsoon for three consecutive years. It would mean unreliable food sources for nearly 1.4 billion people. Climate events have transnational impact In the globalised world, climate events would have transnational impacts. A drought in Russia, Ukraine, and the United States and damaging precipitation in Australia could affect global wheat supplies. Droughts around the world in 2010 contributed to a doubling of global wheat prices in 2011 and a tripling of bread prices in Egypt. This, among other factors like poverty, contributed to the civil unrest that ultimately resulted in the 2011 Egyptian revolution. Likewise, drought in Somalia has forced herders to sell livestock they could not provide for, reducing their incomes and leading some to join armed groups. Migrants from Africa, Asia, Central America, and the Caribbean are moving to where resources and life security are. Europe is already witnessing the impact of the refugee crisis. It will only worsen. Climate variability creates conflict through intermediate processes, including resource competition, commodity price shocks, and food insecurity. Warmer temperatures provide the opportunity for mosquitoes and other disease-carrying pests to increase their geographic range. Major contributors to climate change As per United Nations reports, fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions. As greenhouse gas emissions blanket the Earth, they trap the sun’s heat. This leads to global warming and climate change. The biggest polluter is generating electricity, 75 per cent of which is by burning coal, oil, or gas, and only the remaining comes from wind, solar, nuclear, and other renewable sources. Globally, residential and commercial buildings consume over half of all electricity. Manufacturing and industry are the next which also burn fossil fuels to produce energy for making things like cement, iron, steel, electronics, plastics, clothes, and other goods. Mining and other industrial processes also release gases. Cars, trucks, ships, and planes run on fossil fuels. That makes transportation a major contributor of greenhouse gases. Emissions from ships and planes continue to grow. Transport accounts for nearly one quarter of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Producing food causes emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases in various ways including through deforestation and clearing of land for agriculture and grazing, digestion by cows and sheep, the production and use of fertilisers and manure for growing crops, and the use of energy to run farm equipment or fishing boats, usually with fossil fuels. Consuming too much adds to greenhouse gas emissions. The wealthiest bear the greatest responsibility. The richest 1 per cent of the global population accounts for more greenhouse gas emissions than the poorest 50 per cent. The Group of 20 nations are responsible for about 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Credibility and accountability of net-zero commitments Scientific studies and software have allowed mathematical modelling to increase the predictability of extreme weather and climate change. This requires data mining. For a livable climate, net-zero commitments must be backed by credible action. It means cutting net greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible, with any remaining emissions re-absorbed from the atmosphere, by oceans and forests. The target is that global temperature increase be limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, we are already getting there. As per the Paris Agreement – emissions need to be reduced by 45 per cent by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. Emphasis is on renewable energy sources. China, the United States, and the European Union are the biggest polluters with 76 per cent of global emissions. Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance, an international group of over 40 institutional investors with over $6.6 trillion in assets has made a bold commitment to transition investment portfolios to net-zero emissions by 2050. Are we on track to reach net zero by 2050? The Glasgow Climate Pact called on all countries to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets by the end of 2022, but very few have committed. India moving responsibly To be aligned with the 1.5°C temperature limit, India needs to phase out coal use from its power sector by 2040, with substantial reductions by 2030. The Indian government’s 2023-24 budget includes funding for new clean energy projects and other financial incentives to promote renewable energy. Yet India’s electricity demand will force it to build more coal-based plants. The government continues to advance its green hydrogen policy, which is an important step forward for the decarbonisation of refineries and fertiliser plants where currently fossil fuels are used as feedstock. India has made significant progress in renewable energy capacity installation, ranking fourth in the world in 2022. As a responsible nation, India has managed to cut its greenhouse emissions rate by 33 per cent in the past 14 years, much faster than expected. It has set an emissions-intensity target of 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. It has plans to achieve 50 per cent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030. It targets to create a carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 GtCO2e through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. Amid growing global mistrust, the G20 under India’s presidency has been trying play a vital role in furthering effective climate collaboration. Way ahead Most major nations have released their Nation Security Strategy (NSS). The security strategies include the impact of climate change on security. India’s draft NSS is still gathering dust in some files and needs to be pulled out and released. Being a transnational phenomenon that requires global solutions. Climate variability based on El Nino/La Nina events is being studied closely as it directly impacts climate extremes. The cross-connects between economic growth and carbon emissions have to be handled with maturity. The question for coming times is not whether humanity survive this 1.5°C or even 2°C warming, but, how much will the existing disparities between the developed and developing world widen, and for how long the world can sustain these disparities without conflict? The industrialised developed world that has ruthlessly polluted the planet needs to take the lead and not make unreasonable demands on the Global South which is still struggling to raise standards of populations. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports are cautioning that by 2050, climate change will wreak increasing havoc on human and natural systems, and more so on the developing world, and have profound consequences for national security. Major wars or low-intensity proxy conflicts seem likely, if not inevitable. Climate change linkage to security, can be termed as akin to ‘nuclear threat in slow motion’ said a senior General. We need to not only understand the linkages between climate change and security but to mitigate the causes and prepare for the consequences. The impacts of climate change also mean diverting greater resources for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). The time to act is now, lest it becomes too late. The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.