G20 Summit: Geopolitical turbulence, a polarised world and India’s quest for diplomatic triumphs

No one at all is now unaware of the G20, not even the neighbourhood chaiwala. In what is undeniably a smart move, the government held meetings at some 55 locations around the country, accompanied by an aggressive advertising campaign aimed at showing India as going places. As External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said recently, it was the prime minister’s explicit direction that the G20 be taken to the people, and not left in exclusive conference halls and the elite. That has been Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s signature style, even as chief minister, and is all to the good. But ask anyone what exactly the G20 is about, and there’s puzzlement. Given the breadth of the exercise, it’s a lot that should impact our lives. Or it should. But as always, geopolitics prevails. And profit. The critical point The main point to note is that this meeting occurs at a critical point in time. Even before the Ukraine war, post-pandemic growth globally was expected to be a low 5 per cent globally. Post the Ukraine shock,  growth is expected to be 2.2 per cent, with the Global South suffering the most due to a  ‘perfect storm’ of inflation, high debt and the second shock of severe climate change. Consider just one factor. A  recent study found that forest fires now result in 3 million more hectares of tree cover loss per year compared to 2001 — an area roughly the size of Belgium — and accounted for more than one-quarter of all tree cover loss over the past 20 years. Tied closely to the loss of forests is the expected resurgence of new zoonotic epidemics that could put COVID-19 to shame. Then take the multiple climate disasters, primarily in the Indo-Pacific, including floods in Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Thailand, drought in China, Kiribati and Tuvalu, typhoons in the Philippines, heatwaves across much of Asia, and now a failing monsoon in India, and the ensuing rise in vegetable prices by at least  37 per cent. Runaway inflation is a danger in all G20 countries, so much is expected of them. Don’t hold your breath. India has been the most energetic chair, with not just official working groups, but academia bringing in some 350 policy briefs. The scale of the effort has been immense, but it could all fall apart as the rich nations – and that includes ‘developing’ country China – all look to their political interests rather than the global threats. The G20 facts upfront Now look at the facts. As of now what is absorbing people’s attention are the reasons for President Xi Jinping not attending. Given that he didn’t attend the ASEAN summit in Jakarta either, something seems to be in the wind. But that’s a different story. President Vladimir Putin’s non-appearance was a given, but delegations of both countries were at every meeting over the last year. This is why not a single G20 ministerial meeting has led to a joint statement, instead settling for a ‘chairperson‘ summary and an outcome document. In short, the Ukraine war is a roiling agreement and is likely to prevent a joint communique, Already gleeful  reports note that India will lose out on the year-long exercise if a joint declaration is not issued. That rather misses the woods for the trees. It’s not just about Ukraine. There’s a lot else in the disagreement bracket. And sometimes sheer hypocrisy. The troublesome common document It’s true that a chairman’s summary or outcome document is not binding. But then little else is. Remember that the G20 is an informal grouping. This means that unlike the United Nations (UN), it does not have a permanent secretariat or staff. It brings together an agenda and is supported by a  “troika” – previous, current and incoming presidencies. That means India, Indonesia and Brazil (who is the next chair), all of whom have strong common agendas. The G20 is also informal in another sense – while the decisions of the G20 are important, they do not get implemented automatically. This is like a discussion forum, where intentions are framed. That is then implemented by the countries involved, or by the international organisations who are also part of it. True, the difficulties in a common draft are primarily due to the Ukraine issue. Note that the number of countries abstaining on UN resolutions against Russia has been slowly increasing, and they are all from the ‘Global South’. As India held its first ever (and largest ever virtual conference) of the 125 countries of the Global South, it has the support of these countries in causes that are common across them, and which have all been raised at the G20. There may not be a common declaration – even as the Sherpas are still at it – but those causes have already evoked a huge degree of support.  And consider this. India has backed the entry of the African Union into the G20 which could happen in Delhi. That in itself is a victory not just for India – but all those of the Global South who have been marginalised for decades. Issues that resonate – health What are these issues that are likely to resonate across the Global South? Check the  outcome document of the ministers’ meet on health which states “Building on the lessons from COVID-19 pandemic, we arrived at a consensus to build more resilient, equitable, sustainable and inclusive health systems equipped to address ongoing global health challenges and future public health emergencies with equitable access to safe, effective, quality-assured and affordable vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics, and other medical countermeasures, especially in Low-and Middle-income Countries (LMICs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDs)”. Whether that document becomes an agreed statement or not, it flags a vital issue across more than half the world. Now consider that the UN has charged the Global North with  discrimination and a human rights violation in their refusal to waive Intellectual property rights on vaccines. US President Joe Biden however earned enormous goodwill in waiving the rights, even as major vaccine  producers are fighting back. There is a great deal more, with India holding the first-ever summit on traditional medicine together with the World Health Organization, with 350 representatives from over 90 countries attending. Meanwhile, the message of a ‘rules-based’ post-COVID world order has also been pushed at the recent Jakarta meeting by the prime minister. In other words, these are initiatives and positions which will be taken up regardless of a common final document. Climate change There is now little secret about the fact that developed countries are refusing to pool into the 2019 goal of raising $100 billion to finance climate goals. Consider that estimates suggest that the actual flow of climate finance from developed to developing countries in 2020 was between $21 billion and $83.3 billion, predominantly as high-interest loans, adding to existing debt pressures on the poorer countries, severely hit by climate change. World bodies have suggested that future loans will have to be softer and for an extended period. At a UN meeting on the issue, the countries of the South, including India were all at one in demanding that the developed countries do more, but to little effect. Now Europe proposes a carbon tax on imports, (in all fairness together with stringent rules for their own industry) that will hit imports from countries like India, which last year exported 27 per cent of iron, steel, and aluminium products to the EU. Certainly Indian steel manufacturers – the third largest source of air pollution – need to up their act. Add the so-called ‘developing country’ China, whose emissions are more than India, US and EU combined, is increasing its coal power, and its steel and metal production. No wonder the Environment and Climate group didn’t have a common document. The report – like the others – calls out the Ukraine war, without mentioning that the war has reversed green commitments severely in Europe in particular, where  coal has made a strong comeback. No, the G20’s progress on climate change has been called ‘ woefully inadequate'. In simple terms, the North is hanging on to their collective wallets. Energy transition There’s more. The chair’s summary on  energy transitions appears to have had more difficulties than just Ukraine, as it clearly shows differences in phasing out fossil fuels and shifting to alternative energies. The text notes “Given that fossil fuels currently continue to play a significant role in the global energy mix…. phase down of unabated fossil fuels in line with different national circumstances was emphasized by some members while others had different views on the matter”.  That poorer countries want more sharing of alternative energy technology was the strong point made, but that’s unlikely given that the technology is a  $100 trillion money-making opportunity. The summary has a strong nod towards “transparent and resilient global markets for hydrogen”. Delhi’s massive ‘Green Hydrogen Mission’ aimed at not just shifting to reducing the $160 billion it spends on energy imports but also creating some 6 lakh jobs and making India ‘a global champion’ in this area. There is a “Common Principles document and a Voluntary Action plan for lowering cost of finance” as an annexure. But it’s pathetic and is further proof – if needed – of the intransigency of the developed world in actually working towards energy transition. Meanwhile, India has just signed on to import 10,000 MW of energy imports from Nepal, together with ‘mutually beneficial’ investment in its hydropower and transmission sector. Moreover, in a huge shift, India has registered a  364 per cent rise in export of solar products, all of which is testimony to the determination with which the country has progressed. As Foreign Minister Jaishankar noted to an audience, where this author was present, countries of the Global South were palpably proud of the achievement of a country once regarded as a technology outcaste. The G20 show The point is also made that India ‘showcased’ the G20 for political mileage. The news is that every country does so; Delhi just did it more efficiently, and most of all bringing in the public wherever possible. The Environment and Climate Sustainability Working Group (ECSWG) for instance, kicked off with a beach clean up in 30 beaches across India, as well as in some 20 other countries. Sceptics may call that a public relations exercise. But here is the thing. The  report on marine plastic litter for instance, just calls for a ‘reduction’ in single-use plastics. That’s as far as most governments are prepared to go. To go further, the people have to be convinced. Meanwhile,  reliable reports observe that it’s the richest countries that produce more plastic waste per person, in this case, the US and the UK who head the list. The point here is not to carry out a finger-pointing exercise. There are huge areas where India can do better, especially in the conservation of forests and green spaces, or reducing our huge plastic signature. The point is that expectations of G20 should be realistic, keeping in mind a highly turbulent political and economic climate where each country will be focussed on what it can fence for itself and its voters. That’s about dollars and pounds, and that’s unlikely to change. But by Delhi upscaling the whole exercise, and championing the causes of its poorer countries, the whole has become a test case for whether the north (and China) will put its money where its mouth is, and actually assist in turning away from global climate disaster, end a highly dangerous war, and end a highly uneven not to say unstable economic pitch. As of now, the portends are not good on any of these. Delhi will however power ahead anyway. It has promises to keep. The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s_ views. 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