From trend to tradition: How Narendra Modi turns pro-incumbency into a winning formula

In the realm of Indian politics, ‘old-school analysts’ who studied Indian elections maintained that whenever a political party governs for two or three consecutive terms, the conventional wisdom of anti-incumbency sets in and the political challenger is bound to win. With this hopeful anticipation, a broader narrative was propagated within a certain section of the media, suggesting that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi would face defeat in all three Hindi heartland states, fail to improve its tally in Telangana, and this would serve as a precursor to 2024. In my considered analysis, this approach to interpreting Indian politics has surpassed its relevance in the ‘Modi era,’ characterised by the entrenched pattern of pro-incumbency. This notion has been challenged by Prime Minister Modi. Contrary to the narrative, the ‘Modi era’ has witnessed a consistent trend of pro-incumbency becoming a habit. Following his ascent to power in 2014, Prime Minister Modi exceeded popular expectations by securing victory in the 2019 General Elections with both a higher vote share and seat count than in 2014. Recalling our pre-poll estimate at Jan Ki Baat, where we predicted a majority verdict of 300+, it faced initial scepticism, necessitating several months until the 2019 verdict to substantiate our prediction. Political analysts well-versed in Narendra Modi’s governance and political strategies would affirm that his governance strategy, rooted in ‘Sarvavyapi Vikas’ or Holistic Development, has been a constant factor since his tenure as the chief minister of Gujarat. This approach has not only strengthened ‘Brand Narendra Modi’ but has also enabled the BJP to secure sweeping mandates in the Hindi heartland and an upward trajectory in Telangana. In each of the states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana—the BJP not only augmented its seat count but also increased its vote share. Conversely, the Congress failed to attract additional votes compared to 2018, while the BJP experienced an uptick in its vote share across all four states. This signifies a shift in voter allegiance, with individuals who did not support the BJP in 2018 choosing to do so in 2023. For instance, in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP secured 30 new seats not won in 2018; in Chhattisgarh, it secured tribal seats not won in 2018 or 2013; in Rajasthan, it demonstrated improved performance in Eastern Rajasthan where it lagged in 2018, and in Telangana, it garnered votes from areas previously absent in its support base in 2018. This trend extends to the national level, as observed in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019. While the Congress consistently received approximately 10-11 crore votes in both the 2014 and 2019 General Elections since 2009, the BJP has witnessed a substantial increase in its tally, progressing from less than 8 crore votes in 2009 to 22 crore votes in 2019—an approximate increment of 14 crore votes under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi since assuming office. In essence, the electoral dynamics underscore a straightforward reality: each new voter exhibits a preference for casting their vote in favor of Prime Minister Modi over the Congress. Furthermore, the probability of garnering support from ‘floating or non-committed’ voters significantly favours Prime Minister Modi over the Congress. This discernible trend underscores the enduring appeal and electoral magnetism that Prime Minister Modi holds, particularly among segments of the electorate previously considered neutral or unaligned. The efficacy of Prime Minister Modi’s developmental initiatives, known as the ‘Vikas Push,’ has become the cornerstone of garnering electoral support in terms of votes. Notably, the BJP’s expanding footprint is evident through its success in reaching newer geographies and securing backing from segments previously considered averse to the party. This shift is particularly notable in Chhattisgarh, where the BJP secured more tribal votes than in 2018, in Madhya Pradesh where it garnered increased support from SC votes (a 32 per cent increase since the last election), and in Rajasthan, gaining votes from communities such as Gurjar and Meena, which it did not in 2018. In aspirational districts across these states, the BJP triumphed in over 50 out of 81 constituencies, reflecting a noteworthy increase from the previous count of less than 30. Telangana witnessed a doubling of the BJP’s vote share compared to the last Assembly elections. These compelling data points culminate in a singular conclusion: Prime Minister Modi has successfully catapulted the BJP into a constantly expanding party, traversing new geographies and appealing to diverse voting groups. The party’s commitment to addressing the concerns of both existing and potential supporters is evident in this ‘Constant Expansion.’ This trajectory, made possible through impactful developmental measures, is underscored by real life instances echoing sentiments on the ground. For instance, during a post-election interaction with a taxi driver from Bihar, the sentiment resonated strongly in favour of Modi, citing improved infrastructure, economic development and global recognition. I asked him, “What do you think about Prime Minister Modi and BJP’s victory in all three states?” He replied matter-of-factly, “Why will Prime Minister Modi not win, Sir? In my home state of Bihar, he has established factories, improved roads and is taking the country forward. If someone else becomes the prime minister, what is the guarantee that he will continue the work? Modi has improved India’s image globally.” This ground-level sentiment, cutting across caste, demography and geography, transforms any election Prime Minister Modi contests into a people’s election rather than merely a party-centric one. As a psephologist, considering the current sentiment with over 60 per cent support from women, 45 per cent from farmers, 58 per cent from the poor and 50 per cent from the youth towards Prime Minister Modi, the prospect of a repeated and even more substantial mandate in 2024, surpassing the 2019 figures in both vote share and seat count, seems plausible. The resonance of Modi’s leadership is not just a political phenomenon but a testament to his widespread appeal and the transformative impact of his governance on the lives of the people. The author is a journalist, psephologist and founder, Jan Ki Baat. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.