Five reasons why Modi's BJP should not take 2024 election victory as foregone

Every time a buoyant BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi goes to elections, a reference to the party’s 2004 ‘India Shining’ debacle comes up. The comparison is largely banal and fallacious. The BJP of 2004 under Atal Bihari Vajpayee lacked the aggression and electoral determination of the Modi establishment, had failed to grow the organisation in uncharted areas, and was heavily dependent on coalition partners like Chandrababu Naidu who eventually let it down by getting wiped out at the ballot. It lacked the current BJP’s might at either booth-level management or social media warfare. The party under Atal and LK Advani achieved remarkable feats, but as a political force, it was still a baby dino coming out of the egg and breaking into a sprint. The BJP under Modi and Shah is a bounding, fearsome beast fully in control of its intent and actions. Now, majestically racing from its three state victories to the forthcoming inauguration of the Bhavya Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, the party looks unassailable. Even mainstream media hostile to it have started declaring that Narendra Modi’s third term in office is inevitable. There lies the greatest danger for the BJP and Modi. Although the most dominating victories have never slowed the party down with ego or ennui and only increased its hunger for more success, even a glimmer of complacency before the 2024 general elections may upset its best-laid plans. Here are five reasons why. First, if the BJP becomes over-reliant on the heartland, too self-assured after its past and recent sweeps in the north and west. Although the party sends the highest number of MPs from south India to Parliament, it has a fraction of its heartland influence in the peninsula so far. The Congress and the rest of the Opposition waste no breath to drive in the perception that the BJP is not the party of the south. It will relentlessly play on the so-called north-south divide. In the east, Bihar can be a challenge. Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD is a resurgent force. The I.N.D.I. alliance’s political play over the OBC census and proportional reservations have failed in the last spate of elections, but might find traction in Bihar where Yadavs are extremely politically influential. While upper caste Bihari voters are vocal and may give the impression of their dominance, certain backward castes can silently upset the equation. Also, this time the BJP is going to fight polls without JDU unlike in 2019, unless Nitish Kumar bowls another googly and joins the NDA at the last moment. In Bengal, the BJP enjoys growing popular support despite the wanton slaughter its supporters faced after the 2021 assembly elections. That is mainly because of the TMC’s brazen corruption and appeasement politics. But a large section of its cadre feel the state organisational leadership could be a lot more united and aggressive. They also feel arrests of high-profile TMC leaders are long overdue and could catapult the party to unprecedented success. In Maharashtra, the BJP is in the kitchen with too many cooks, many of whom like Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde its cadre and support base do not fully trust. In Punjab, the party is heading for the polls without its traditional ally, the Akalis. Unless, again, things change in the coming days. The south is a blue ocean for the BJP, with slowly growing islands of influence in Tamil Nadu and Telangana. The party recently suffered a rout in its strongest southern bastion, Karnataka. In Kerala, its vote share has been growing despite demographics skewed against its Hindutva politics but seats have been elusive. A socio-political coalition with a section of Christians, who are alarmed at the rise of Islamism in the state, could significantly change the BJP’s fortunes. With disenchantment growing against Jagan Reddy’s government, Andhra Pradesh has a yawning political vacuum in the Opposition which the BJP can exploit. But the Andhra BJP unit still does not have a young, dynamic find like K Annamalai in Tamil Nadu. That makes it reliant on coalitions and mergers, possibly with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP or actor-politician Pawan Kalyan. Second, while the Opposition alliance seems to be floundering at every step, ultimately its existential desperation may bring the creaky, disparate wagons to come together as a travelling circus. In Maharashtra, for instance, this fear of being decimated by the BJP had made the Shiv Sena-Congress-NCP alliance last much longer than expected before it fell. The third portent for the BJP is the legendary complacency of the Hindu voter. Drowned in the euphoria of the Ram Mandir inauguration, the heady surge of Hindutva and the impressively long goods train of developmental and welfare measures, the party’s committed support base may take the 2024 outcome for granted and not come out to vote. Micro-management at the booth level becomes a lot more important in times of surfeit than during crisis. The fourth challenge stems from the same factors spawning the third, which is a massive surge in Narendra Modi’s popularity will consolidate the minority vote behind the Congress. The Congress is the flawed but only option left for the fearful or communally charged Muslims who want to stop the galloping Hindutva chariot at any cost. Regional parties may lose out because the community would not want to waste its vote on them. But a near-total consolidation of minorities behind the Congress will certainly worry the BJP. Fifth and the most sombre presage for the BJP ironically lies in its strength. In 2024, even the most delusional minds in the Opposition do not believe they can defeat Narendra Modi. The prime minister’s opponents have reconciled to a much lower and realistic bar: to restrict the BJP under 272 seats, or a simple majority. They know that if they can achieve that and force the BJP into a coalition, the horn of the unicorn will break and turn it into a tethered workhorse. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are not going to be between the BJP and the Opposition. The only opponent which can leash the democratic world’s most potent political force is the BJP’s own smugness or slackness, in case either or both creep in. The author is contributing editor, Firstpost. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.