East Asia Summit avoids a fumble as big powers give it a miss

The East Asia Summit (EAS) was held in Jakarta, Indonesia on 7 September, 2023. It was also the concluding summit for Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN for 2023. It marks the last time that Indonesian President Joko Widodo would participate in ASEAN and related summits since his term ends next year. With the conclusion of these events, Indonesia has handed over the chairmanship of ASEAN and EAS to Laos. The EAS in 2022 in Cambodia did not succeed in having a consensus around the leader’s statement. Therefore, only a chairman summary was issued. We are now familiar with this difference since, at the G20 in New Delhi, India was grappling with the same dilemma. In the EAS, however, the tradition is to issue two documents. The leaders’ statement normally covers functional non-political issues, while the chairman’s summary focuses on geopolitical issues and other related matters of contemporary interest. In Indonesia’s case, it seemed that they too would stumble like Cambodia and issue only a chairman’s summary in which there were disagreements over the paragraphs pertaining to Ukraine. This held up the consensus on the leader statement as well, which otherwise focused on Indonesia’s theme. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, who played a significant role with her team in resolving these issues, candidly said that it was a challenge and that many delegations made life difficult for Indonesia. During this period, the ASEAN held their own summit on September 5, thereafter, on 6 and 7 September, there was the summit that ASEAN held with its dialogue partners, like the ASEAN-India Summit, the ASEAN China Summit, and the ASEAN US Summit. It also holds the ASEAN Plus Three Summit, along with Japan, China and Korea, their oldest partners in the region. Once these are concluded, then the cherry on the cake is the eighth tea nation East Asia Summit, which is what every ASEAN chair looks forward to, because it brings the big powers to their capital. It was established in 2005 with the 10 ASEAN countries and their closest regional partners, Japan, Korea and China, to which countries like India, Australia and New Zealand were added in 2011. The US and Russia’s addition made it the most powerful summit in the region. Every year, the chair looks forward to the presence of the US president, the Russian president and the Chinese Premier since Chinese President Xi Jinping never attends ASEAN China or ES summits. This year marked the debut of Chinese Premier Li Qiang. President Putin has stopped attending summits except in his close proximity, and Russia at this year’s G20 summit also was represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. But what hurt the Indonesians and ASEAN most was that US President Joe Biden did not make an appearance and this was despite Indonesia adjusting the dates of the summit which were coinciding with the G20 Summit dates in India, which Biden chose to attend. Thus, none of the three big powers were present at the EAS, denuding it of significance. But the absence of the leaders did not mean the absence of contradictions and controversy. Indonesia had successfully negotiated a few paragraphs on Ukraine by condemning Russia during the G20 Summit in Bali in December 2022. But, like everybody else, they discovered that Jakarta was not the same and the Russians and Chinese stuck to their guns. Indonesia was relieved when finally, a consensus was built on these paragraphs, meaning that the church summary could go through and the objections to a consensus on a leader statement were removed. Para 39 on Ukraine focuses on the negative impact of the Ukraine crisis on ASEAN but does admit that at EAS, “Most members strongly condemn the aggression against Ukraine and underscore the need to reach a just, and lasting peace based on the principles of the United Nations Charter, including the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and political independence of Ukraine.” Here too, Russia was indirectly mentioned through UN resolutions. Indonesia does need to be complimented, that while Cambodia could not succeed, they did. Though the going is now tougher than what they faced during the G20. India learned from this since Indian delegates were watching proceedings carefully. The EAS is losing some steam because of the continuing degradation of the region’s rules-based order by China. China refuses to improve its behaviour. It is delaying the code of conduct in the South China Sea and ticking off ASEAN countries, which are its economic partners, for the strategic convergence with the Quad and other countries. On top of it, the Chinese economy is faltering. ASEAN countries are seeking strategic autonomy and engaging closely with other members of the East Asia Summit. Just before the EAS, Indonesia held its first-ever ASEAN Indo-Pacific Forum to focus on $93 billion of projects, which could ignite economic engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Indonesia and ASEAN embraced the Indo-Pacific concept so openly this time, indicating a change in tactics. However, they do not see it as a strategic concept and want to bring it to the level of economic and functional engagement, much like the Asia Pacific concept was. This, however, ignores the harsh realities which led to the generation of the Indo-Pacific. During the launch of a business event, Singapore diplomat Kishore Mahbubani said that the Indo-Pacific emerged because the US wanted to woo India to challenge China. While this may not be entirely true, the perception of India in ASEAN is definitely changing. India is resolute in its support to the EAS processes and the stability it can provide. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the EAS “plays a pivotal role as the primary confidence-building mechanism in Asia. And the key to its success is ASEAN centrality”. India fully supports the “ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific”. The positive agenda of IPOI and QUAD complements various mechanisms of ASEAN. Prime Minister Modi was clear in his view of the Indo-Pacific and without naming China, its actions were called out. The Indo-Pacific must have international law, including UNCLOS, equally applicable to all countries; freedom of navigation and overflight; and unimpeded lawful commerce for the benefit of everyone. India believes that the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea should be effective and in accordance with UNCLOS. Additionally, it should take into consideration the interests of countries that are not directly involved in the discussions. This supported the CoC as well as challenged two redlines China has drawn on UNCLOS and the rights of non-SCS countries. The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.