Delimitation dynamics: Assam electoral landscape shifts as BJP's poll bugle puts Opposition parties in a fix

Challenges faced by opposition parties in Assam regarding the delimitation exercise in the state can be comprehended by analysing their dilemma between prioritising their vote bank or considering the overall welfare of voters. The latter option poses a difficult decision for them, as their pursuit of political power often takes precedence over broader public interests. On 7 May of this year, a collective memorandum was submitted by 11 opposition parties in Assam to the Chief Electoral Officer of the state, expressing their concerns regarding the delimitation process of Assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies. These political parties encompassed prominent entities such as the Congress, CPM, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, Jatiya Dal Asom, CPI, NCP, CPI(ML), RJD, JD(U) and Trinamool Congress. The memorandum raised a range of points highlighting their reservations and objections to the ongoing delimitation exercise. The opposition parties in Assam have expressed their opposition to the implementation of the delimitation exercise based on the 2001 Census data, as outlined in the Delimitation Act of 2002. They have appealed to the Election Commission to postpone the process until the updated National Register of Citizens (NRC) is officially notified. Their request stems from the belief that utilising the most recent NRC data would provide a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the state’s population, thus ensuring a fair and equitable delimitation process. On 27 December of the previous year, the Election Commission issued a formal notification to initiate the delimitation process. Subsequently, on 1 January, 2023, the implementation of the delimitation exercise officially commenced. Previously, the President of India had postponed the delimitation exercise in four northeastern states, namely Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur, citing concerns related to security. However, the specific order pertaining to Assam was revoked on 28 February 2020: “And whereas there is a significant improvement in the security situation in the State of Assam. There is also reduction in insurgency incidents and improvement in law and order of these States making the situation conducive for carrying out the delimitation exercise which was deferred in the State in the year 2008. Therefore, it appears that the circumstances that led to the deferring of the delimitation exercise in the State of Assam have ceased to exist and that the delimitation of the constituencies as envisaged under the Delimitation Act, 2002 could be carried out now.” “Now, the President, being satisfied that the circumstances that led to the deferring of the delimitation exercise in the State of Assam have ceased to exist, is pleased to rescind the notification number S.O. 283(E), dated the 8th February, 2008 so as to readjust the division of the State of Assam into territorial constituencies for the purpose of elections to the House of the People and to the State Legislative Assembly in accordance with the provisions of the Delimitation Act, 2002 (33 of 2002).” Subsequently, the Delimitation Commission for the aforementioned four northeastern states, along with the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, was reconstituted by the Central government, led by former Supreme Court judge Ranjana Prakash Desai, on 6 March, 2020. However, in March 2021, the four northeastern states were subsequently excluded from the jurisdiction of the reconstituted Delimitation Commission. Why opposition parties are wary of the delimitation exercise? While the opposition parties attempt to highlight procedural irregularities in the delimitation exercise, their primary concern lies in a different realm. These 11 opposition parties heavily rely on the support of Muslim voters, which presents a demographic anomaly that the delimitation exercise seeks to address. The outcome of the delimitation process will directly influence the consolidation efforts of the Muslim electorate, subsequently impacting the electoral performance of these parties, including prominent ones such as the Congress and Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF. According to a post-election survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS after the 2019 General Election, it was revealed that approximately 70 per cent of Assam’s Muslim voters supported the Congress party, with the AIUDF receiving around 20 per cent of the Muslim vote share. Comparatively, in the three previous elections (2011 and 2016 Assembly Elections, and the 2014 Lok Sabha Election), the Congress managed to secure a little over 40 per cent of the Muslim votes in the state. Notably, Muslim voters wield considerable influence in no less than 33 of the 126 Assembly constituencies in Assam. In the 2021 Assam Assembly election, an unprecedented occurrence took place as none of the eight Muslim candidates nominated by the ruling BJP-led alliance were successful in securing victory. This marked the first time in at least 50 years that the state treasury bench had no representation from the Muslim community. Presently, all 31 Muslim MLAs in the Assam Assembly belong to opposition parties. This scenario highlights the opposition parties’ significant reliance on the Muslim vote bank, which they are striving to secure through various means. The approaching Lok Sabha Election, scheduled to take place within a year as the tenure of the present Lok Sabha ends on 16 June, 2024, has undoubtedly amplified the concerns and unease among the opposition parties. According to a tweet by senior journalist Atanu Bhuyan, it is anticipated that the delimitation exercise in Assam will result in a reduction of Muslim representation in the state’s seats from the current 45 to 25, thereby allocating approximately 82 per cent of the seats to the indigenous people of Assam. This projection suggests a significant shift in the distribution of seats, potentially impacting the political dynamics and representation of various communities in the state. On 7 June, 2023, the Chief Minister of Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma, held a meeting with the Union home minister Amit Shah, where he requested the expeditious completion of the delimitation exercise. The chief minister expressed concern that if the delimitation draft is not prepared before 15 August of the current year, it would be challenging to complete the entire exercise prior to the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections in the following year. He emphasized the presence of several formalities that require attention after the draft stage, further contributing to the time constraints faced in the process. In the ongoing delimitation exercise, it has been determined that the total number of Assembly constituencies in Assam will remain unchanged at 126. However, a significant outcome of the exercise is the expected discontinuation of several existing constituencies, which will be replaced by newly formed ones. This development has instilled a sense of apprehension among MLAs and MPs, as they are concerned about the potential impact on their respective constituencies and subsequently, their political careers. The government is anticipating significant challenges in ensuring a smooth and legally unambiguous delimitation exercise. The opposition parties are expected to make extensive efforts to impede the process, aiming to delay it until the next General Election. Moreover, there are emerging allegations concerning the involvement of a specific Assam minister in the delimitation process, although the opposition parties have refrained from publicly disclosing the minister’s identity. These allegations further contribute to the complexity and potential controversies surrounding the delimitation exercise in Assam. Rapid rise of Muslim population in Assam In March 2022, Sarma made an explicit statement during a session of the state Assembly, highlighting that Muslims account for 35 per cent of Assam’s total population of 3.12 crore as per the 2011 Census. He emphasised that referring to the Muslim community as a minority would be inappropriate and further expressed concerns about the apprehensions and anxieties of the Assamese people regarding the preservation of their culture and civilisation. Acknowledging the growing Muslim population in Assam, he emphasised the collective responsibility to safeguard the state’s Sankari and Sattriya cultural heritage. Within the 35 per cent Muslim population in Assam, it is notable that 31 per cent are Bengali-speaking, while the remaining 4 per cent use Assamese as their primary language. This Bengali-speaking segment constitutes a substantial and influential vote bank for the opposition parties. It is important to acknowledge that, from a technical standpoint, the Muslim community comprises approximately one-third of Assam’s total population. However, it is worth noting that this population includes individuals with uncertain or questionable nationality backgrounds. The 1976 delimitation exercise in Assam The delimitation exercise in Assam in 1976 was a significant event in the state’s political history. During that time, Assam was grappling with social and political tensions arising from issues such as immigration, linguistic and cultural diversity and regional aspirations. The delimitation exercise aimed to address these concerns by creating constituencies that would ensure equitable representation and give voice to different communities and regions. The 1976 delimitation exercise resulted in significant changes to the electoral map of Assam. The number of constituencies increased from 114 to 126, accommodating the changing population dynamics and ensuring more inclusive representation. The exercise also considered the unique aspects of the state, such as the presence of tribal areas and areas affected by insurgency, while redrawing the boundaries. BJP sounds poll bugle ahead of Lok Sabha election The BJP has sounded the poll bugle in Assam along with Haryana and Andhra Pradesh preparing for the Lok Sabha election next year. As part of the Assam BJP’s Maha Janasampark Abhiyan, Union home minister Amit Shah is scheduled to participate in a meeting taking place in Hojai, situated within the Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency, on 27 June. Additionally, BJP national president JP Nadda is set to address a rally in Sivasagar, falling under the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency, on 19 June. In an effort to showcase the policies and initiatives implemented by the Central government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the state BJP has organised significant public gatherings from 11 June to 30 June across all 14 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state. The upcoming rallies organised by the state BJP will witness the presence of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, former state chief minister and Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, BJP national vice president Baijayant Jay Panda, Union Minister Kiren Rijiju as well as several other ministers and party leaders. These prominent figures are expected to actively participate in the rallies, contributing to the party’s campaign efforts in Assam. Delimitation, a big limitation for opposition parties in Assam Under the combined influence of Prime Minister Modi’s stature and the efficient governance of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, opposition parties in Assam find themselves in a challenging position as they strive to maintain relevance in the forthcoming elections. Faced with the task of countering the positive performance record of both the Central and state governments, the opposition parties are confronted with the potential obstacles stemming from the delimitation process. In the absence of a favourable anti-incumbency sentiment, the opposition is compelled to search desperately for legal loopholes that may be exploited. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that if the government adheres to proper procedures, the judiciary is unlikely to deviate from the established norms. Consequently, apprehension pervades the hearts of every opposition member in Assam. 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