 "‘Delhi Chalo’: Why farmer protest smells more of politics than agrarian distress")
The I.N.D.I.A opposition is in tatters with entire parties and prominent individual leaders deserting it frequently. Rahul Gandhi’s East-West Bharat Nyaya Yatra is a damp squib. Other efforts from the DMK in Chennai and the Congress in Karnataka, both seeking to promote poisonous and divisive agendas, have also failed to gain any traction.
Meanwhile, the ruling combine has been notching up one success over another and is poised to win the 2024 elections with a larger majority than in 2019.
But here comes a significant and emotive disruptor. In utter violation of democratic norms of measured negotiation, Supreme Court directives against demonstrators blocking highways, imposition of Section 144, the Punjab farmer bosses are about to lay siege to Delhi once again.
This is flying in the face of three Union ministers, Piyush Goyal, Arjun Munda and Nityanand Rai, camped in Chandigarh, engaged in negotiations with the farmer unions. They have already agreed to the MSP demands but have not got around to the rest. The agitators seem keen on a confrontation rather than negotiated settlements.
Predictably, so far, all attempts have failed to avert the march on Delhi, further Bharat bandhs and threats of violence. Meanwhile, hordes of people from Punjab have arrived at the barricaded Shambhu border already, and the police are busy dispersing them with tear gas.
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View AllOstensibly, this time, the government is determined to end this agitation at the earliest. It has readied a stadium to act as a temporary detention centre for any protestors that do get in to Delhi.
The agitation named ‘Delhi Chalo’ is a march composed of people of dubious provenance that claim to represent India’s farmers. They are apparently Punjabi Sikhs in turbans laying a bogus claim to represent all.
Some, from the Samyukta Kisan Morcha, held a televised press conference on the 13 February and exhorted other farmers and other groups/unions affiliated with the BJP to join their agitation. This clearly indicates they are supported by anti-government forces.
They are converging on Delhi with over 1,000 tractors and trolleys, some reports say 2,500, with enough provisions and rations to settle in for six months. The financing for such substantial mobilisation and elaborate bandobast, has come in, most likely from the anti-Modi government forces, both in the country and from abroad. It is absolutely déjà vu.
Will the Central government end up conceding the points raised by the protestors once again? Yes, if the infamous rollback of the Farm Laws is anything to go by.
That controversial, politically calculated capitulation of two years ago, may have emboldened this mobilisation in February 2024. The timing is shortly before the Model Code of Conduct imposed by the Election Commission (EC), goes into force. This could happen by March. After that, no major initiatives will be permitted. But still, these agitators plan to dig in for six months.
The Delhi Police has sealed all the main routes into Delhi with barricades and other elaborate fortifications. But this will disrupt other legitimate traffic, trade and supplies causing heavy losses, like the last time. Some protestors can get in by the lesser routes too.
The assembling of apparently over 100 farmer unions, some reports speak of 200 unions, from Punjab, supported, allegedly by an equal number of labour unions, have suddenly sprung up. Each of these unions however must necessarily be quite small. This prompted the government ministers to question their representativeness, before going on to discuss their demands.
This is not an all-India stir by any means and is principally centred in Punjab. No people are purporting to be farmers from other states at all, except some opposition-led elements from Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh who may turn up like last time, as this goes on. This is trying to grow into a replica agitation of the one to protest the three Farm Laws two years ago. The laws were rolled back by the central government under immense pressure.
Ostensibly, this agitation is to demand guaranteed Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for a large number of crops, farmer and farm labour pensions, debt waivers, compensation for those killed in the clashes of the last farmer agitation at Lakhimpur Kheri, possibly a ban on privatisation of farming if it is being contemplated, other lesser demands. The fiscal impact of conceding all these demands could be considerable and impact the GDP growth projections.
The entire crowd so far seems to consist of Punjabi Sikhs. Punjab is ruled by the opposition Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is supporting the agitation. Is this then merely a political stir encouraged by the AAP?
The AAP is embroiled in a liquor Scam and multiple other corruption? Several of their ministers are in jail including the Delhi deputy chief minister. Chief Minister Kejriwal has been dodging summonses from the Enforcement Directorate (ED).
The Congress Party, in competition with the AAP in Punjab for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, is also offering a degree of support to the Delhi Chalo agitation, motivated perhaps by the pressure that is being applied on the central government.
The BJP, and even the Akali Dal that may be thinking on rejoining the NDA, have little electoral possibilities in Punjab.
In Haryana and Uttar Pradesh however, BJP is in a strong position. So, the central government has no great reason to cave in to these gun-to-the-head tactics. Of course, the public relations fallout of a renewed and prolonged farmer agitation is a relevant political factor.
Given the prominence of the Punjab Sikhs in this stir, most probably financed and supported by a bouquet of anti-NDA forces, the question arises, are they the only farmers in India? Why are they routinely pampered ever since the Green Revolution engineered by MS Swaminathan, even though many other states have become major agricultural contributors since?
There may be multiple anti-India forces that could be behind this stir.
Many of these people or organisations think the prospect of a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Hindu nationalist NDA is a threat to their worldview, particularly with India’s current buoyant economic prospects. Strategically, a weaker central government in India would make it more biddable for the Western forces and China alike. These apparently agricultural agitators at Delhi’s borders are regarded as convenient cat’s paws by such forces.
The author is a Delhi-based writer. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._
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