Deeper ties with France, a volatile LAC: What 2023 may have in store for India

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, presently deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, in a series of ‘New Year’ predictions, speaks of the decline of the West, mocking it. Among other things, he announced that oil would become much more expensive and that the UK would return to the EU. He also spoke of the emergence of a ‘Fourth Reich’, a civil war in the US and Elon Musk becoming the US president. According to The Jerusalem Post: “Medvedev’s predictions combine some points that clearly represent Moscow’s views, with those that might be better described as ‘trolling’ or posting just to cause controversy.” Without being so dramatic, one can try to do some predictions for the New Year. China’s future Let’s first look at the Middle Kingdom, which has been (for the wrong reasons) at the centre of world news since three years. President Xi Jinping has often stated that his country faced an increasingly unstable and uncertain security situation. This will increase further in 2023. Unexpected situations will arise, but although China will manage to control the current wave of the pandemic, it will not return to ‘normal’. The scar of the three-year old, purely made-in-China virus, are far too deep. On 20 December, Politico published an interview of dissident Wei Jingsheng, who in 1979 posted a ‘big character poster’ on a wall in Beijing, arguing strongly for democracy. He subsequently spent some 18 years in jail before migrating to the United States. Politico says: “Just a couple of weeks after our interview, mass demonstrations broke out against Xi’s Covid lockdowns following an apartment fire that killed 10 people; many blamed Covid restrictions for delaying the rescue effort. Protestors held up white, wordless sheets of paper as symbols of mourning and defiance of the CCP’s ruthless censorship campaign.” The protests forced Xi Jinping to take a U-turn and dramatically dismantle his ‘Zero Covid’ guidelines. The Emperor lost face in the process. According to Wei, the White Sheet movement has ‘far exceeded’ the Democracy Wall revolt in 1979: “The White Paper Revolution severely undermined Xi Jinping’s confidence. After the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping had come to monopolize power at the center and was feeling smug. But the slogan for Xi Jinping to step down, put forward by the White Paper Revolution, is comparable to the question I raised at the Democracy Wall Movement: Do we want democracy or a new dictatorship?” This people’s revolution will have incalculable implications for the future of the Middle Kingdom and of the totalitarian rule of the Communist Party of China. The first strong signs will be seen in 2023. It is clear that once the masses have tasted ‘freedom’, they won’t be able to forget its savour. Did the Emperor have any choice but to back out? China’s economy It will continue to plunge. According to Bloomberg: “China’s economy ended the year in a major slump as business and consumer spending plunged in December, with more disruption likely in the first few months of the year as Covid infections surge across the country.” Official data over the weekend showed that the decline in manufacturing worsened last month, while activity in the services sector plunged the most since February 2020.” Though, China is slowly walking out of the pandemic, the consequences, mainly the trust of major world nations, has been seriously eroded since the emergence of the Chinese virus at the end of 2019. In the coming years, the only ‘friends’ Beijing will be able to have are totalitarian regimes such as Saudi Arabia (visited by Xi Jinping in December 2022) or Pakistan, China’s all-weather friend, a country itself on the brink of financial and moral bankruptcy. A Taiwan adventure There will be no Taiwan adventure in 2023 simply because Beijing can’t afford it. Forbes wrote: “What goes on inside Beijing’s Forbidden City is, as ever, inscrutable. But one thing China’s leadership knows or should know is this: the economics of a move against Taiwan is not good. An invasion or blockade would cost China’s already beleaguered economy dearly.” The economic paper rightly adds: “Economics, of course, can never tell the whole story, and often takes a back seat to geopolitics and national pride. But to the extent that anyone in Beijing is listening, the economics makes a strong case for the moderation. A first economic consideration is how much more important Taiwan has become to the Chinese economy. Taiwanese buying in China has increased some 87 percent during the past five years.” So, no invasion of Taiwan in the near future. Asaphila China will continue to be aggressive on India’s northern borders. The talks in Moldo/Chushul in Ladakh will not progress and the two remaining ‘disputed’ areas in Depsang and Demchok, will not be solved. Though Beijing failed to make any in-road in the Yangtse sector, north of Tawang, China will open another front, probably in Asaphila in the Upper Sabansiri district of Arunachal Pradesh or in the Fish Tails area. Beijing needs to make a point that it does not agree with the present status quo on the LAC. The Special Representatives process between Ajit Doval, the Indian National Security Advisor and Wang Yi, his Chinese counterpart (now member of the all-powerful Politburo) will go nowhere, apart from repeating the same old banalities. Preparing for the next Dalai Lama In an interview to PTI, Penpa Tsering, president of the Tibetan Central Tibetan Administration predicted that once the present Dalai Lama passes away, a replay of the 1995 appointment of a rival Panchen Lama by the Communist government of China can be expected. At that time, the boy chosen by the Dalai Lama as the incarnate of the Lama was arrested and Beijing nominated a dummy Panchen Lama: “What happens after the present Dalai Lama is no more, is a big challenge for the Tibetans, especially if the Sino-Tibetan conflict is not resolved," admitted Penpa. There is no doubt that the conflict will not be resolved in 2023. The Sikyong added: “China has been preparing for that for the last 15 years. …We believe China will definitely interfere with the succession process of the Dalai Lama.” He explained that their aim is to use religion as a political tool: “Communist China professes not to believe in religion, yet it wants to interfere in what is a purely a religious function,” adding that the Dalai Lama in jest has said that if the “Chinese government is so interested in re-incarnation, it should study Tibetan Buddhism.” But the stakes remain political, Beijing will continue to set a ‘legal’ framework to be sure that the 15th Dalai Lama is Chinese. However, the Communist Party will not succeed. Miscellaneous predictions One cannot predict anything good for Pakistan as the situation will continue to deteriorate in Gilgit-Baltistan and Baluchistan. Despite the Eternal Chinese Friendship, Pakistan will remain on the brink. The Great One Let us come to India. Joshimath will continue to sink and new areas in the Himalayan Belt (Dharamsala?) will face similar fate. Already in 1905, a severe earthquake took place in the Kangra Valley of the then Punjab Province. It measured 7.8 and killed more than 20,000 people; most buildings in the towns of Kangra and Dharamsala were destroyed. Let us hope that similar fate is not awaiting other mountain tourist spots in the Himalayas, though this time, human beings will be entirely to blame. Indiscriminate development can’t be called ‘black karma’, but it will be man-made. It is so sad. France and India Paris will become Delhi’s best friend, a more reliable partner than the United States or Russia can ever be. Already Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic advisor to the French President Emmanuel Macron called on the prime minister on 5 January. The Press Information Bureau said: “Prime Minister highlighted the close cooperation between India and France in various domains of their Strategic Partnership including defence, security, and the Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister welcomed France’s support to India’s G20 Presidency”, while Bonne conveyed President Emmanuel Macron’s message of friendship to the prime minister. Macron will visit India in March, probably to sign a new contract to sell Rafale M (Marine) for the indigenous Indian aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant. But the trust goes deeper than the sale of equipment or armament. It is more a shared vision for the future, though Paris had different views on the Ukraine War. A dream To conclude, can the Indian prime minister take the same visionary decision than his French ‘friend’, Emmanuel Macron and dissolve the Civil Service and replace it by something more appropriate to the 21st century in which we are supposed to live? Last year the French President announced the closure of France’s Ecole Nationale d’Administration (ENA), the training school for French leaders founded by Charles de Gaulle at the end of World War II. It was then envisioned as the pinnacle of a meritocratic system offering opportunities for all. Unfortunately, over the decades it deteriorated to become a symbol of elitism and entrenched privilege; a system closed on itself, only serving ‘Administration’ and no longer the People. The situation is the same today in India with the Indian Administrative Service which mostly helps itself; a radical reform (is reform even possible?) is the need of the hour. But this is not a prediction; it is a Dream for India. The writer is a noted author, journalist, historian, Tibetologist and China expert. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.