CDU's renomination of Ursula Von der Leyen: Insights into EU leadership dynamics

The German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) currently in opposition at their convention on 19 February, renominated former German defence minister, Ursula Von der Leyen for an unprecedented second term to head the European Commission.

The CDU is part of the centre-right European People’s Party which is the largest bloc currently and expected to remain so in the next elections to the European Parliament in June. The current term of the President of the EC is till such elections to the European Parliament. If the EPP expectedly wins the elections it will pave the way for Von der Leyen to occupy the high chair at the European Commission for a further five years. This is the first step and the complex EU system would involve back-channel discussions with leaders of the 27 EU countries and firming up support within the European Parliament.

Von der Leyen is seen as a centralised yet determined European leader of the EC. She kept an even keel despite various pitfalls and challenges during her term including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine crisis, the migration crisis and the like. However, she’s seen as a steady hand at the wheel and the EU probably needs her as they prepare for the challenge of a Trump re-election.

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Von der Leyen has had a good relationship with President Joe Biden and followed his lead on taking the EU behind the US policy on Ukraine more or less junking the Franco-German Minsk process. Her efforts to secure a better trade agreement with the US faltered mainly because the US is not working out trade deals with anybody.

There are four things which Von der Leyen believes will need to be pursued in a second term. She has placed the expansion of the EU’s defence production capabilities as a major area of attention. She’s aware that despite European intentions of supporting Ukraine, their ability to provide equipment beyond a point has been hamstrung by low inventory in their armed forces and extremely low productivity of their industry. Despite France, Germany and the UK outside the EU having defence agreements with Ukraine the intentions are unfulfilled. The US is hamstrung by congressional approvals and Europe does not produce enough.

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Thus, a focus on Europe’s industrial base for defence production seems to be on top of her agenda. This issue attracts attention across Europe as well as among its NATO allies. Since the Ukraine crisis is not ending, the need for European defence capacities will remain for the foreseeable future. A return of Trump may end US involvement in Ukraine and then the EU will need to do much more and beyond funding Ukraine.

Von der Leyen is also seen as a steady hand to deal with the continuing crisis in West Asia and keep up the EU role and personality in international fora. Von der Leyen had successfully negotiated a Green Deal during her current mandate by having for the first time the EU use its high credit ratings to leverage €750 billion which is used to help member states with grants and loans focusing on climate change but also to deal with the impact of the pandemic. Now a similar effort seems to be on the cards to work towards augmenting the defence industrial base of the EU.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, Von der Leyen indicated that if re-elected she would institute the position of a defence Commissioner whose main role would be to expand the industrial capacities of the European defence industry. A plan for €100 billion bond issue to boost the European defence industrial base by leveraging its high credit rating could be on the anvil.

This would, perhaps be atop the current effort for an economic security strategy which includes controlling outward FDI in critical technological areas, a better clearance system of inward investments into Europe to prevent hollowing out of critical industries and better export controls on dual-use technologies and exports.

Other challenges include ensuring that the recently concurred laws for emissions reduction by 2040 are met. These have costs and European farmers are protesting across countries against their having to bear the burden of these costs for a green transition.

EPP is at the centre-right in the European Parliament among seven major groups in the 704-member EP. She must win approval at the EPP Congress in Bucharest in March 2024. After the European Parliamentary elections in June, she would need to be approved by a qualified majority of the 27 member states and then get the EP to confirm her through an absolute majority.

In 2019, she was supported in the EP by a coalition of the conservative EPP to which she belongs, the socialists and the liberal renew group which gave her a nine-vote majority when she polled 383 votes. Now, it is predicted that the far right is more likely to do better in the next European elections. The current backing of these three groups may not be adequate for her re-election.

In this connection, it is notable to see how Von der Leyen has built up her cosy relationship with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. When the migrant crisis hit Italy, Von der Leyen went there to show support; when Italy launched its G7 presidency with the Italy-Africa summit, Von der Leyen was there standing by them, making strong statements. This warm relationship is because Meloni is since 2020 the President of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party. They are anticipated to improve their numbers considerably from the 68 MEPs they have. In such circumstances, the support of this conservative group could come in handy for Von der Leyen to win a majority in the European Parliament.

At the same time, the member states and her peer commissioners have a grievance against her because on several important subjects, like her open support of Israeli action in Gaza, her China policy and implementing the Ukraine accession ideas she has acted more decisively but on her own without consulting EU diplomats or relevant commissioners. This gives her an important perception of being decisive. But at the time of the election, people want a promise to be consulted and be part of her decision-making apparatus.

The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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