Caught in crossfires: Pakistan's three fronts and evolving landscape in South Asia

In an unforeseen escalation of tensions, Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province on 16 January, claiming to have targeted two strongholds of the anti-Iran insurgent group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice). In response, less than two days later, Pakistan retaliated with missile attacks and deployed fighter jets in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province, asserting that the targets were hideouts of ethno-nationalist insurgents operating against Pakistan from Iranian soil. Tragically, the exchange of military strikes resulted in nine casualties in a border region of Iran’s southeast, including three women and four children, as reported by the deputy provincial governor of Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province. This retaliation has not only heightened tensions between the two nations but has also amplified the risk of violence spilling over into other parts of the Middle East, particularly at a time when the region is already grappling with the Israel-Gaza conflict. In response to the escalating conflict, Pakistan took diplomatic measures by expelling the Iranian envoy and recalling its ambassador from Tehran. Such actions signal deterioration in diplomatic relations and add a layer of complexity to the already delicate geopolitical landscape in the region. Founded in 2012, Jaish al-Adl, also known as the Army of Justice, is a separatist militant group with operations in both Iran and Pakistan. This group has gained notoriety for claiming responsibility for attacks against Iranian targets, emphasizing its focus on the independence of Iran’s only Sunni-majority province, Sistan and Baluchistan. The region is predominantly Shia, making the group’s objectives stand out as a call for autonomy in a Sunni-majority area. In a notable incident in 2019, Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing that targeted a bus, resulting in the tragic loss of 27 members of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. The members of Jaish al-Adl primarily hail from the ethnic Baluch community, residing on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border. While Pakistan denies the group’s organised presence in its provinces, it acknowledges the possibility of militants hiding in remote areas of Baluchistan. The province, being Pakistan’s largest and facing a prolonged insurgency, is a sensitive area. The separatists and nationalists associated with Jaish al-Adl express grievances of discrimination and advocate for a more equitable distribution of resources and wealth within their province. Pakistan finds itself at the center of a complex and challenging situation with three active and potentially volatile borders—Afghanistan, India and Iran. In early October 2023, Pakistan’s announcement that 1.7 million undocumented Afghan refugees and migrants must leave the country had triggered a humanitarian crisis on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The directive, leading to expected forced returns, raises deep concerns about the well-being of the affected population. The Durand Line, serving as the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, has long been a source of tension, exacerbated by the movement of terrorists and insurgents, further straining relations between the two nations. Pakistan’s historical conflicts with India, particularly in the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir, are well-documented. Its sponsoring of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and other parts of India contribute to the persistently strained relations between the two neighbors. Adding to the complexity, Pakistan is now facing a military conflict on its border with Iran. The nature and specifics of this conflict require careful scrutiny, as it introduces another layer of geopolitical tension in the region. The meeting between Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, just one day before Iranian strikes on Pakistan is also extremely interesting. The discussions during the meeting centered around the further development of bilateral relations and a comprehensive review of regional and international developments. However, the timings of the meet are raising questions about the hidden complexities underlying the visit. The shades of grey in this diplomatic engagement have been brought to the forefront, especially considering the evolving dynamics in India-Iran relations following Tehran’s inclusion in the BRICS group on 1 January. This meeting is not an isolated event, as Jaishankar and his Iranian counterpart are set to convene again in Kampala during the Non-Aligned Summit while the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council is also expected in India shortly for talks with NSA Ajit Doval, indicating Delhi and Tehran are stepping up their diplomatic engagement. This provides an opportune occasion to delve into the intricacies of the Iran-Pakistan confrontation and potentially signifies a dawn of improved India-Iran relations against the backdrop of shared concerns over Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. The unfolding events warrant careful scrutiny, as diplomatic engagements may play a crucial role in shaping regional dynamics in the near future. All is not speculative either; India has come out in the support of Iran’s actions and cleared its position on cross-border terrorism, being a victim of it for a long time itself. India backed Iran on its strikes on alleged terror camps in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province, calling it an act of “self-defence”. “This is a matter between Iran and Pakistan,” the Ministry of External affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said in a statement. “Insofar as India is concerned, we have an uncompromising position of zero tolerance towards terrorism. We understand actions that countries take in their self-defence.” This also needs mentioning that the Baloch region in Pakistan has been marred by a disturbing pattern of human rights abuses by the Frontier Corps (FC) and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. Described as a “decades-long campaign,” these abuses involve a brutal practice known as “pick up and dump,” wherein Baloch nationalists, ideologues, and even innocent bystanders are forcibly taken, disappeared, tortured, mutilated and/or killed. Human Rights Watch has accused the ISI of engaging in massive human rights violations in Balochistan, with hundreds of nationalists and activists subjected to enforced disappearances. In 2008 alone, an alarming 1102 people were reported to have disappeared from the region, underscoring the scale of this reprehensible practice. Reports of torture have also emerged, painting a grim picture of the treatment meted out to those who have been forcibly disappeared. Disturbingly, an increasing number of bodies with gunshot wounds to the head are being discovered on roadsides, revealing the extent of extrajudicial killings in the region. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has pointed fingers at the ISI and Frontier Corps as the perpetrators of illegal disappearances in Balochistan. Journalist Malik Siraj Akbar also noted that the province continues to witness “dozens of people losing their lives every day” due to extrajudicial killings committed by Pakistani security forces. These accusations have been met with outright denial and rejection by Pakistan security officials, which comes as a surprise to absolutely nobody. The persistent reports of disappearances, torture, and extrajudicial killings also underscore the urgency for international scrutiny and intervention to ensure accountability and justice for the victims in the Baloch region. The deep state’s involvement in these reprehensible acts not only violates fundamental human rights principles but also raises significant concerns about the broader implications for stability and peace in the region. However, achieving peace in the region requires addressing the root causes of conflicts. Pakistan must abandon its support for cross-border terrorism, a factor that has significantly contributed to strained relations with India and its other neighbours; also, recognizing the legitimate grievances of Baluchis and addressing them through dialogue and inclusivity is crucial for fostering regional stability. The writer takes special interest in history, culture and geopolitics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.