Beyond the Lines | The present and future of Putin: What to expect after the Wagner show

Adolf Hitler used to be a star guest at the Bayreuth Festival which hosted his favourite opera of Richard Wagner. Wagner died before Hitler arrived on the scene but he continued to be associated with martial tunes; more controversially, with the Nazi ideology for years. In 2013, Wagner would find a new lease of life through another set of controversial followers. Dmitry Utkin, a member of Russian military intelligence, GRU, was a fan of the composer and used a call sign in his name — ‘Wagner.’ When Utkin retired from the military in 2013 and worked for a private security firm, he went on assignments in Syria, where he found a business opportunity. To the call sign after the composer’s name, he added a caterer businessman funder — Prigozhin — and thus was born the Russian private military company (PMC) Wagner in 2014. Over the years Crimea, Africa, and now Ukraine became a happy hunting ground for Russia’s PMC. While Utkin became a footnote, Prigozhin became the one-man force that ran Wagner and threatened Putin when he mutinied against his former mentor – Russia’s president Vladimir Putin in June. He captured Rostov-on-Don, south of Moscow, and threatened to march to the capital. The rebels were 125 miles from Moscow before he was neutralised by Putin, under a deal brokered by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko that granted amnesty to him and his soldiers, allowing them to move to Belarus. What happens to the Wagner army? Wagner has been Putin’s go-to outfit in his quest to expand global influence in the developing world with minimum involvement of the Russian army. In Africa, Wagner helped African nations fend off rebels and keep the government safe. In the Central African Republic (CAR), after Wagner helped President Faustin-Archange Touadera in 2018 against rebel forces, the language ‘Russian’ was introduced as an official language in local schools. Russian influence expanded, via the Wagner group, across Mali, Sudan and Libya. Wagner’s status changed overnight after the failed coup. Wagner troops in Syria have reportedly been told to report to the Russian military base in the country. Putin, for now, might want part of Wagner’s troops to become a part of the Russian army. African nations have enjoyed the support of Putin until now. “I suspect the way Moscow hopes this will play out is the commanders will move to Belarus and then possibly decamp for operations in Africa,” believes Michael Kofman from the Center for Naval Analyses in the US. Has the failed coup weakened Putin? For long, Prigozhyn was campaigning for the ouster of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the army chief General Valery Gerasimov. Neither resigned while Prigozhyn was given an honorable exit after rebelling. The Western media believes that the coup identified Putin’s Achilles heel — a threat from within. The Prigozhin revolt turned out to be a damp squib, but Putin is said to have been disturbed by the threat, according to various reports from the Western media — which seems to be the major source of information on Russia. Where does this leave Putin? Let’s examine a few points. First, though Wagner had been protesting against Defence Minister Shoigu for months before he mutinied, curiously there were no political defections from Putin’s camp. For someone like Prigozhin, who was planning to usurp political power from an autocrat, this was perplexing. Does that mean there aren’t enough people who believe Putin can be dethroned? Second, one way to deflate a mercenary army is to address the reason why the latter is in a war or desires an element higher than political power. ‘Money’ is a prime consideration. Unlike Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater who ran America’s private army in Iraq or Utkin who founded Wagner, Prigozhin is not a soldier but a businessman interested in the profits of war. He ran a dirty business and like all investors, was interested in a profitable exit. When he raised the stakes of negotiation, it is probable that Putin or someone on his behalf addressed the currency of exchange that would buy peace and exile in Belarus. It helped that in Belarus’ Lukashenko, Putin found a mediator that ensured a tame end to a promising beginning. What promised to be a whopper of a mutiny ended up as a whimper of a protest. The funny thing is: it suited all stakeholders in the drama: Putin, Prigozhyn and Shoigu. Putin didn’t experience any major defections, Prigozhyn found a safe haven (and possibly money) and the threat to Shoigu’s position was gone. Third, dictators are forever wary about challenges and therefore, allowing Prigozhyn to grow into an uncontainable monster wasn’t exactly the future Putin imagined. In 2003, Putin jailed Russia’s richest man, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, for daring to criticise him and exiled him. In January 2021, he arrested the country’s Opposition leader, Alexei Navalny and has become wary about internal threats. With each of the past two events, Putin has emerged stronger, repressing and outsmarting opponents. In this case, Shoigu got the Wagner army out of Prigozhyn’s grasp and could now choose to enrol them in the Russian army ranks. The only set of stakeholders that might be left disappointed are those who believed Moscow was about to witness a radical change in power. There is an opinion that raising the banner of revolt against Putin and finding support amongst the people of Rostov-on-Don (the city that Prigozhyn captured) was a signal that the Russian people were about to turn against Putin and were looking for a messiah. Surveys carried out by agencies after the failed mutiny showed how Putin’s popularity had fallen. But these were agencies from democracies where people’s opinions matter. In Russia, it’s Putin’s diktat that works. The revelation from the coup is that the distance from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow is more than a hundred odd miles that a Google Map might depict. A more relevant question on Putin’s future What could have perhaps been a more realistic analysis in a society run by an autocratic government is the probability of Putin’s opponents displacing him from power. Has that probability increased? No one knows, for sure. I would think that in the short run, Putin doesn’t face any increase in internal threat. The no-show of any dissenters during an extremely public remonstration against the Russian dictator is an indication that political stakeholders do not believe they have the power to make a change in Moscow. In the long run, trends over the next few months could indicate how power dynamics play out in Moscow. Dictators are known to be fearful of their own shadows and thus, the recent rebellion will concern him. The outcome: Putin will try and brutally consolidate his own position at home, which means a few heads will roll. What is Putin keen on? After the Wagner challenge, Putin is desperate to build his image among his domestic supporters and global allies. Domestically, he seems keen to keep an ear to the ground. Recently, he travelled to the Derbent in Muslim-majority Dagestan on Eid al-Adha. He smiled alongside the crowds, showing a friendlier side — unusual for someone who has avoided gatherings recently. On the global front, Putin is keen to show his allies that he is still Russia’s decision-maker in charge. In the global kerfuffle over Ukraine and Russia, India stands in an exclusive position of having successfully negotiated with America despite choosing to maintain relations with Russia over its own trade and political interests. By deftly walking the middle line, India’s status as a neutral arbiter has found acceptance on both sides of the divide. India had also voiced its concern to Russia over the continuing war. Therefore, after suppressing the coup, Putin’s call to brief Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the situation is an indication that Russia understands India’s role as an essential player — neutral but friendly — as it seeks to build its narrative for allies. The SCO in July 2023 provided an opportunity for his overenthusiastic strategists to showcase Russia’s relationship with India, albeit with an outright gaffe. For instance, at the SCO, the Russian statement said Modi expressed ‘support of resolute actions by Russian leadership’, while MEA stated that Putin told Modi about recent developments and the Indian prime minister reiterated the call for dialogue. Putin is aware that China’s president Xi Jinping hadn’t been too pleased with the continuing war. Any perception of a domestically weakened Putin might lead Xi to influence Russia’s decision on the war. Putin is aware of his regions of influence outside Africa — for instance, the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. One of his priorities would be to ensure that the Western narrative doesn’t hurt him there. It may seem counterintuitive: the future of Putin in Russia depends on the support of his overseas allies. A weakened stature amongst allies will begin to put pressure on him in Moscow. The writer is the author of ‘Watershed 1967: India’s Forgotten Victory over China’. His fortnightly column for FirstPost — ‘Beyond The Lines’ — covers military history, strategic issues, international affairs and policy-business challenges. Views expressed are personal. Tweets @iProbal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.