Beyond the Lines | Chronicle of a Year Foretold: Chinese Checkers, Global Economy and Elections in 2024

A second major conflict added to the woes of the world in successive years. The war in Gaza fuelled the Asian powder keg after the Ukraine war had singed Europe for much of two years. If 2022 and 2023 were the years of conflicts, 2024 is expected to be the year of outcomes and directions. Around 50 countries are expected to hold elections, reports Thomson Reuters; and three major elections among them decide the direction for the next few years and also offer indications on key outcomes. The election in the US is likely to elect a new President, which in turn will dictate the American initiatives on the China-Taiwan issue. More importantly, this American election also decides whether the US resurrects its declining influence in the Middle East and Asia, or the period unveils the decline of a long hegemony and signifies the passing of the baton to the next superpower. Is China ready? Is 2024 the breakout year? That takes us to the next question. The US is waning but is China ready to be the next dominant superpower? 2024 may not have all the answers but is likely to have a more definitive opinion on the subject, beyond mere premonition and approximations. How can a direction to the question be established? At the outset, the Chinese economic juggernaut based on infrastructure growth and exports, has stumbled and slackened. Alongside a declining population and abating manufacturing growth, there are issues of political coercion that have alarmed both businessmen and foreign companies. To add to their worries, Xi Jinping’s responses in the last few years have resembled Mao Zedong’s policies in the late 1960s – during the cultural revolution – when the government targeted foreign entities and local politicians on grounds of suspicion. The political enemies have now been replaced by a mix of both political and business adversaries. Xi’s crackdown on corporate firms operating in China and strong-arm policies have resulted in a more active business decoupling process of global firms from China. China’s economic slump will have a bearing on the global economy in the coming year, but it’s also a time when we are seeing a major move of businesses away from China. The year 2023 witnessed a higher quarterly dip in foreign investment in China than any other quarter in a long time. There is an indication that fresh foreign investment isn’t happening in China. “Anxieties around geopolitical risk, domestic policy uncertainty and slower growth are pushing companies to think about alternative markets,” says Nick Marro from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Debt and Destruction: ‘Money for Nothing’ The huge debt piled up due to the loans to over 150 countries and an extended repayment period is likely to put added pressure on China. There are fears that assets of defaulters could be expropriated and the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka is an example of a seized asset. Due to Sri Lanka’s default over payments, China wrested the Hambantota port and adjoining land from the island country for 99 years. This move gave China a vantage point south of India as part of its plan to surround its rival strategically and also control a key trade channel in the region. With its economy not showing encouraging signs, will China use such strategic assets as guarantees to force geostrategic alliances and trade deals? This is a question that ties its domestic troubles to its geostrategic outlook. This brings us to the political events that can help us understand how the year could influence geostrategic outcomes. According to Thomson Reuters, in 2024, more than 50 countries and regional bodies are experiencing major elections in the upcoming year, with four in particular that could have significant global impacts. Which might sound like the world technically stands at the cusp of a new set of leaders. Except for the fact that a closer look at select elections reveals a few crucial factors. The Turn of the Screw From a regional perspective, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia go to polls too. While each of these elections have a set of dynamics that would be crucial for the region — whether Pakistan’s ability to stay as a nation or Hasina Wajed’s margin of victory would demolish the opposition forever — the ones that impact the larger geopolitics of the region are the elections in the US, Taiwan and India. While India’s current stand on key and complex foreign policy issues is expected to continue with the return of the Narendra Modi government, America will witness a key election that is likely to pave the way for a possible return of Donald Trump (depending on the decision of the Supreme Court) or a Republican candidate in the place of a tepid current incumbent. The Taiwan elections will be keenly watched by everyone, and Xi seems to line up the ducks in a row for outcomes and subsequent options that emerge from it. Xi named Admiral Dong Jun as China’s defence minister at the end of the year. Dong previously headed the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). His experience ‘reflects serious joint and naval focus under Xi with growing potential applications to disputed sovereignty claims in the East and South China Seas — none more important than Taiwan,’ wrote China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) analysts Andrew Erickson and Christopher Sharman. The appointment was followed by Xi’s New Year speech in which he spoke of how ‘all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait were bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.’ The tone was undisguisedly paternalistic and softly authoritarian, deliberately discounting the fact that the political dispensation of the adversary nation (Taiwan) has been opposed to reunification. Xi virtually ignores the existence of a government in Taiwan these days. That’s where the upcoming Taiwan elections will decide how far Chinese incursions into the political landscape of Taiwan able to sway people’s opinion. The interesting part is if the simple nuance of an international ‘water-boundary’ separating the two nations is ignored, Xi’s assertions could resemble that of a junta leader of unified China. That is exactly how China is likely to move its pieces — assume and define its claims as a ‘done deal’ and focus on how Taiwan and Beijing are inching towards each other — mimicking in the bargain its characteristic tactic of crawl, creep and nibble. While they do this, China continues to posture internationally through belligerent political, economic and military stances. The talk of Taiwan and China brings into focus the sea and hence, the role of the navy. Defence Minister Dong is the first naval officer to be appointed to that position with Taiwan in its sights. Xi’s recent focus on the navy includes plans to counter America’s presence that including an aircraft carrier in the region. The show of strength by the Chinese is likely to be used as a bulwark as it plans to target Taiwan’s political system over the next year or so. It is likely that by the time 2025 arrives, Xi would have strengthened naval defences and mounted a political offensive to swallow the island nation. For that to happen, the Taiwan election results are key. If the Taiwan elections do not go to Xi’s plan, he could use the economic route of crippling the Taiwanese economy by flooding Chinese money, through third parties, to buy key assets. It is likely that he exercises the military option if all else fails, and only when the execution of a military invasion has a higher chance of success. The India-China Factor The Chinese economy is likely to take time to recover. On the other hand, Xi’s each successive January speech takes him closer to his promise made to the domestic constituency. Till China makes a move to acquire or invade via political, economic and military means, Xi will find it convenient to distract the attention of his increasingly impatient domestic base by occasionally getting into a short-term fracas with India. Involving China in a war against Taiwan that invites immediate American intervention can weaken his position if he doesn’t succeed quickly in dismantling Taiwan (lessons from recent wars would tell him that there are no quick modern wars). The elections in the US and India therefore become important in ringfencing the neighbourhood from any Chinese adventurism. Till China is in a position to mount a takeover of Taiwan without American interception, a short-term posturing in the Himalayas to put India on the defensive is a convenient holding option for President Xi Jinping. Outmuscling India over degree of political influence in the neighbourhood buys Beijing additional time and patience among the domestic constituency. Xi is preparing for that January speech in the future when he unveils the reunification with Taiwan — with Chinese characteristics. He would like to identify that moment in 2024. While elections in the US and Taiwan will intensify the debate on China’s likely moves on Taiwan, the latter in turn could have a major bearing on the global economy that is reeling from long wars, high inflation, climate challenges, displacement and business uncertainties. The writer is the author of ‘Watershed 1967’ and ‘Camouflaged: Forgotten Stories From Battlefields’. His fortnightly column for FirstPost — ‘Beyond The Lines’ — covers military history, strategic issues, international affairs and policy-business challenges. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Tweets @iProbal. Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.