Beyond the geopolitical deadlock at G20, Biden’s bilateral with Modi may deliver tangible outcomes and roadmaps

It is tough to imagine G20 chair India pulling off a Houdini act at the last minute and coming out with a ‘joint declaration’ at the New Delhi Leaders’ Summit that satisfies all sides if the current belligerent mood prevailing on  both sides of the geopolitical divide is anything to go by. There are no such worries though when it comes to the joint communique to be issued post Joe Biden’s bilateral with Narendra Modi. Biden, who will visit India for the first time in his capacity as US president, will meet the prime minister soon after landing on Friday for a bilateral on the sidelines of the G20 Summit that, from India’s point of view, will perhaps be more fruitful and consequential than the geopolitical slanging match that is likely to culminate on 9 and 10 September reflecting the unsolvable crisis that plagues multilateralism. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar made a forceful assertion Wednesday during an interview with ANI that G20 is a “collaborative forum” and not an arena for “power politics”, yet that is precisely the reason why hammering out a consensus is proving so difficult even at a multilateral forum whose stated mandate is to propel global efforts towards human-centric growth, technological transformation, and implementation of core developmental goals for the Global South. Ensuring global energy, food, nutrition and fertilizer security for the countries disproportionately affected by the pandemic and Ukraine war, or minimizing the stress on low-income and middle-income countries suffering from climate change, trade disruptions, high-interest rates or debt crisis requires a collective effort. It shouldn’t be reduced to a hostile debate over why the “joint communique text on Ukraine does not go far enough” but that’s unfortunately the world we live in. That’s why the India-US partnership is so crucial. It is the bedrock on which India’s novel approach of democratizing multilateralism is built, exploiting a moment in history that has brought the world’s top superpower and an aspiring great power together in a tight strategic embrace through a unique quid pro quo. While the US can play the role of an enabler, boosting India’s defence capabilities and harnessing India’s enormous tech talent and technological prowess to expand digital infrastructure and shape the global technology landscape (a step towards which has been taken through the  Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies , India brings to the table its rising competencies in different domains, its reputation as a ‘doer’, and a trustworthy partner of Global South that may bridge the sharp ‘north-south’, or ‘east-west’ divide for a more equitable globalization. India’s trust as a credible partner for Global South has been hard-earned, and it is here that the West runs a regrettable deficit. In this regard, it is interesting to note US national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s comments ahead of Biden’s visit to India for the G20 summit. Sullivan said during a press briefing in Washington on Tuesday that American “focus is going to be on delivering for developing countries; making progress on key priorities for the American people, from climate to technology; and showing our commitment to the G20 as a forum that can actually deliver. “And thanks to the leadership of Prime Minister Modi and India’s presidency, we hope we’ll be able to do all of those things.” The stress here is on delivering for the developing nations from the forum of G20 in partnership with India, banking on the fact that India’s role as a voice of the Global South is built not on rhetoric, but on delivery. In a recent interview to Moneycontrol, the prime minister pointed out that “when it comes to the Global South, these are countries with which we empathise. Since we too are part of the developing world, we understand their aspirations. At every forum including the G20, India has been raising the concerns of the countries of the Global South.” India sent millions of vaccine doses to over 100 countries at the height of the pandemic, and as a ‘pharmacy of the world’, medicines to over 150 nations when richer nations were busy hoarding and outbuying poorer nations. Soon after assuming the leadership of G20, India hosted the Global South Summit where 125 nations from Africa, Asia and Latin America were invited to open up about the challenges arising from the twin shocks of pandemic and war. To quote the foreign minister, “There have been G20 summits before… (But) no other G20 presidency made an effort to get together the developing countries who are not on the table and say — please come, sit with us, tell us what your concerns are. And we will distill those concerns and place them before the G20. That is a unique exercise. Nobody has done it before.” While this synergy will play out in the background at G20, Biden’s visit to India to strengthen ‘the most consequential partnership of this century’ will primarily be a stock-taking exercise building on the significant gains that were achieved during Prime Minister Modi’s state visit to Washington in June. Unlike the pessimism that pervades the negotiating G20 sherpas who are on a mission impossible to arrive at a joint declaration, frenetic but positive consultations have been on for the last few weeks between American and Indian officials to settle on a joint communique rich in deliverables, outcomes and clear roadmaps. As Jaishankar pointed out, “We have had a very strong state visit by the prime minister to the United States. Strong in terms of the outcomes and the results of that visit. So, my understanding is right now both systems, the Indian system and the American system, are busy working that through and trying to implement a lot of what was agreed to in June this year. So, I think this would give an occasion for the leaders to take stock.” Both sides are active in creating an enabling atmosphere for fruitful talks. On Wednesday, two days before Biden’s arrival, India slashed the retaliatory tariffs it had imposed on imports of 12 American products such as apples, almonds and lentils. A few days ago, the US Congress removed all legislative hurdles from the GE-HAL jet engine deal by giving a seal of approval to the agreement signed between America’s GE Aerospace and India’s state-owned HAL for joint production of GE’s F414 engines in India. The MoU for the landmark government-to-government deal, that will see fighter jet engines for IAF’s Light Combat Aircraft Mk2 programme being manufactured in India, is underwritten by the abundant mutual trust that was on display during Modi’s state visit to the US. The deal still must clear several regulatory hurdles, of which Congressional approval was one, and it involves the transfer of some of the most sensitive secrets involving jet engine technology. The level of trust between India and the US is apparent from the fact that not only has there been ‘no objection’ from the US Congress indicating bipartisan consensus, but the deal will involve an unprecedented “80% transfer of technology (ToT)” that will lead to production of jet engines in India with an “indigenous content of around 75% compared to 55%-60% in LCA Mk-1A and 50% in the existing variants,” reports Hindustan Times quoting “Indian officials”. Meanwhile, the move to acquire 31 MQ-9B predator-armed drones from General Atomics (GA) is in its final stages with India reportedly close to finalizing the Letter of Request (LoR), reports Indian Express. Subject to bureaucratic procedures and finalization of the procurement process, that involves price negotiations, the drones that are to be assembled in India may enhance the Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities of India’s armed forces in sensitive domains such as the LAC. These and other progresses in the defence and economic domains will be assessed when Modi sits across the table with Biden. On the table are “a possible nuclear pact on small modular nuclear reactors, an academic programme tailored for Indian students, movement on the drone deal, progress on jet engines, joint humanitarian aid for Ukraine, a more liberal visa regime for Indians and new consulates in each other’s countries,” according to Indian Express. When the relationship is driven from the top and enjoys massive people-to-people sanction, the bureaucratic and strategic middle is forced to shake off stonewalling, stasis and scepticism. This sense is captured in a senior Biden administration’s comments to Hindustan Times where, referring to Modi’s state visit, he said, “In the period after ambitious visits, there is often a tendency to get distracted and turn away from areas of hard work… We can’t let that happen in the US-India relationship… Much has happened since the visit, the absolutely historic moon landing… The steps in terms of investments from American firms in India… I think it would be fair to say that we are pressing forward across a broad range of areas…” The wide-ranging defence deals, technology partnership, alignment of supply chains, collaboration across domains such as space and artificial intelligence is America’s vote of confidence in Indian leadership and its capabilities as a net security provider in an arena where China’s expansionism has upset all geopolitical calculations. Observe the events at 18th East Asia Summit in Jakarta where ASEAN leaders met Chinese premier Li Qiang who cautioned the 10-member bloc of Southeast Asian Nations — at the receiving end of China’s cartographic aggression — against starting a “new Cold War” and ‘warned’ them against taking sides in any conflict (read US). Biden, incidentally, gave the summit a miss and sent VP Kamala Harris instead. Prime Minister Modi, however, took some time out from his hectic schedule to attend both the East Asia and ASEAN-India summits. What we see here, therefore, is that beyond the alliance-based architecture, this partnership-based alignment is attuned to deal with emerging challenges. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook , Twitter and Instagram .