Beyond Joshimath or Metok: Unless China stops amassing troops along LAC, development race will heat up further

The Himalaya has been in the news and not for a good reason: The pilgrimage town of Joshimath is sinking. According to images released by the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Joshimath has witnessed a fast subsidence, nearly 5.4 cm in just 12 days. The report added that a subsidence of 9 cm was recorded between April and November 2022, mainly in the vicinity of the Joshimath-Auli road at a height of 2,180 metres. Ironically, Joshimath is a holy place; the monastery of Adi Sankaracharya stands there; it is the gateway to the Badrinath temple and Hemkund Sahib Gurudwara. Why should it sink? Are the Gods unhappy? Incidentally, the town is categorised in Zone V in the seismic scale, denoting the highest risk.   China’s reaction China’s social media was quick to comment: “In order to compete with China, in recent years, India has launched large-scale infrastructure construction in its border areas. However, due to poor planning and levels of low construction, the roads have got damaged and houses cracked in many places along the border.” The land subsidence was caused by the construction of a diversion tunnel in Joshimath, asserted the Chinese bloggers, who could not resist pointing out: “This is also the only place to pass through to the Indian-occupied area of Wuje (known as Barahoti in India) and the Auli area where the US-India military exercise was conducted recently.” Barahoti saw the first Chinese intrusions into India’s territory in June 1954; since then, it is considered a ‘disputed’ area. While nobody can deny that the time has come to undertake serious (and honest) scientific studies about the fragile Himalayan ecology and the danger of excessive development, China should first put order in its own house, before commenting on India. Infrastructure development in Tibet During the recently held Tibetan Autonomous Region’s Regional Congress, a report was presented about some key development projects involving an investment of 16 billion US dollars taking place on the Tibetan plateau. It was announced that 22 projects had already been completed with an investment of 4.4 billion US dollars: “All 46 supporting road projects of the Tibetan section of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the Tibetan section of the G318 highway quality improvement project were started, and the Pai-Mo Highway was completed in its entirety. The airport in Lhuntse and Tingri was opened to traffic, and the first million-kilowatt hydropower station, the Suwolong Hydropower Station [in Markhan County of Chamdo City], was put into operation and has started generating electricity.” Of particular interest (and worry) to India is the Pai-Mo Highway. Already in October 2021, China Tibet News, a Chinese website, noted that this road linking Pai (or Pe) to the Metok County in the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo, was soon to be opened, shortening the travel time to Metok to 4.5 hours; it concerns India, because the road-end is located north of Tuting, in the Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh. The highway starts in Pai Town in Mailing County and uses a long tunnel to pass through the Doshong-la Mountain, proceeding to another tunnel in Laohuzui and ending at the Jiefang Bridge close to the Indian border. The project will have a total length of 66.9 kilometres. The article concluded by saying: “After completion, the Pai-Metok Highway will effectively increase the tourism promotion for the Grand Canyon and high-quality agricultural products (tea, matsutake [a highly sought mycorrhizal mushroom]), [further] fully promote the rapid development of local tourism, commerce, agriculture and animal husbandry, and help Tibet to eliminate poverty and realise the self-sufficient economy. [The road] will make a positive contribution.” Everywhere the developmental pattern is the same, but on the Chinese side, it is clearly with a military purpose. The mega plant: Cascade of hydropower stations? In December 2021, The Global Times further announced China’s plan to build a large hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, (the river becomes the Siang and later the Brahmaputra in India). The tabloid admitted that “it has raised concerns in India over potential political and ecological threats as the river passes through Southwest China, India and Bangladesh”, the article however asserted that Chinese experts “refuted the claim that Chinese hydropower project have political aims, and said the project could help alleviate power shortage problem in northern India and boost regional economy.” Absolute propaganda. The project is designed by the Chengdu Engineering Corp under the Power Construction Corp of China (or POWERCHINA), the same company which built the Pai-Mo highway. One can only presume that the hydro-power project (known as ‘the mega dam’ in India) will consist of a cascade of huge hydropower plants (HPPs), each one evacuating the power produced towards the plateau …and the Mainland (if it is not used to push the waters of the Yarlung Tsangpo towards Qinghai province and the Yellow River. This alternative has also apparently been worked upon in great detail by some Chinese engineers). The mega hydropower station(s), with its tunnel(s), will run parallel to the new highway. It seems sheer madness, in view of the fragility of the terrain and the high seismicity of the area. The Himalaya: Most fragile zone It is not only Joshimath and Uttarakhand which are fragile, the entire Himalayan belt is seismic prone. Who remembers the earthquake of 15 August, 1950? In September 1950, Time Magazine reported about the earthquake which had its epicentre in Rima in Tibet, just north of the Lohit sector in Arunachal Pradesh: “Seismographs the world over one day last fortnight registered an earthquake so violent that the record of its convulsions ran off the paper. Because of the incomplete recordings, seismologists were unable at first to determine the quake’s location, later reckoning that it must have hit hardest in southeastern Tibet and in northern Assam (a province of India). Communications with this wild mountain region, always poor, had stopped abruptly; the extent of the damage done by the quake could only be guessed at. By last week, frightening evidence of the quake’s dreadful work in Assam had begun to reach the outer world. Shipping on the lower Brahmaputra River was dislocated by a tide of tens of thousands of uprooted trees and the bodies of tigers, elephants and other wildlife borne down the river from the earthquake area. The waters of the Brahmaputra, blackened with sulphur that the quake had churned up from the earth’s innards, cast up millions of dead and dying fish. Up in the mountains the river had been dammed by landslides.” Of course, more than 70 years later, it has been forgotten.   Evidence mounts for dam-quake link On 20 April, 2012, Jane Qiu wrote in Science: “Ever since the devastating magnitude-7.9 Wenchuan earthquake killed 80,000 people in 2008, Chinese hydrologists and geologists have wrangled over whether the reservoir behind the 156-metre high Zipingpu Dam may be to blame.” The author added: “Most scientists agree that the Wenchuan hypocenter, or depth of the initial rupture, is directly beneath the reservoir. But just how deep it lies is in dispute.” But who is listening to science, and in the case of the HPPs in Metok County, the developers will argue that they are run-of-the river plants, without huge reservoirs.   An environmental law On 13 July, 2022, Li Zhanshu, No 3 in the Communist Party till March this year, visited the north bank of the South Woodland Ecological Demonstration Area of the Yarlung Tsangpo to investigate the planting of trees. Reports said that Li Zhanshu inspected the protection of wetlands, river mudflats, reforestation projects, water resources protection, mine restoration among other things; during a forum: “He listened to the views and suggestions of the stakeholders.” He discussed a Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Ecological Protection Law and said: “The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a special ecological status and value, and plays an extremely important role in the national and even global ecological security." Li Zhanshu noted that to implement the new development concept, one should follow “systemic thinking, in a scientific attitude and problem-solving spirit, in order to strengthen the protection, governance, restoration and risk prevention and control of each important ecosystem.” Once again it sounds good (despite the verbiage), but what about the high speed development (roads, railway lines, airports) already started? However once Li relinquishes his post in March, who will listen? Will tens of millions of tourists visiting the plateau every year be conducive to the protection of the environment? The problem is not just Joshimath or Metok (though the consequences could be far more serious in the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo), the issue is the entire Himalayan Belt and unless China stops amassing troops on the plateau to threaten India, the race will continue. And unless everyone realises that ‘development’ does not solve all the problems of humanity, there will be the danger of new earthquakes, landslides, or ‘sinking’ towns. One solution would be for all parties to work together, but is it possible in today’s world? Probably not. The writer is a noted author, journalist, historian, Tibetologist and China expert. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.