Bangladesh 2024 elections: With date out, Shaikh Hasina looks set for 4th consecutive term

There is a case for, and a tradition of, strong leadership in Islamic countries. Several are still monarchies, with strict police-state approaches to law and order, dissent, and debate. Others have thinly veiled dictatorships or military men at the top. Wherever such governments have been toppled, as was the case after the Arab Spring movement, general chaos ensued until another tough leader emerged. Where no such leader emerges, the country is generally ruled by factional warlords that each hold sway over different parts of the country, as in Libya. In Pakistan, from which East Pakistan broke away to form Bangladesh in 1971, democracy has not really taken root, even though it has elections and has a parliament. It is de facto run by the Pakistan Army and its intelligence wing, the ISI. And it has seen its share of political assassinations over the years since its founding in 1947. President Shaikh Hasina escaped harm during the assassination of her father by being in West Germany at the time with her sister Sheikh Rehana. The legendary Bongobondhu Mujibur Rahman, her father, the founder president of Bangladesh, and most of her immediate family were killed by a group of Bangladesh Army personnel on 15 August 1975. It was a bloody coup d’etat, followed by a series of counter-coups over several years. Sheikh Hasina was barred from returning to Bangladesh immediately. She was given sanctuary by India and was only able to return to Bangladesh on 17 May 1981. On return she inherited the leadership of the Awami League, the political party founded by her father, and came to power after the elections of 1996. Her political rival was and is her erstwhile collaborator Khalida Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Khaleda Zia won her first term in 1991 but resigned to a caretaker government, followed by Sheikh Hasina winning her first term in 1996. The precedent, therefore, for the demand for President Hasina to handover to an impartial caretaker government, comes from this 1996 election. In 2001, Khaleda Zia and the BNP won again for the last time. During 2006–2008, Sheikh Hasina was in jail on extortion charges. When she was released, she won the elections in 2008 and has been in power ever since. As of 17 November 2023, Sheikh Hasina is the longest-serving female head of government in history. Now at 76 years of age, Sheikh Hasina presides over a rapidly expanding economy and has reined in both Islamic radicalism and a military with a history of meddling in politics. Her rival Khalida Zia’s BNP is backed by both the Pakistan Army and ISI to boot. However, Sheikh Hasina is walking a tightrope for her staunchly authoritarian ways, criticised by the Left in the West as well as her political rivals. The US has crafted some curious visa restrictions against Bangladeshis who obstruct a free and fair election process. In 2021, the US Treasury sanctioned Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), implicated in extrajudicial disappearances. Shaikh Hasina sees much of this as the application of double standards that ignore much of the good work her government has done over the years. However, she enjoys the continued confidence of India, a country that was very helpful in the birth of Bangladesh in 1971, and this goes on under the Modi government even today. There are increasing trade, commerce, and transportation linkages between India and Bangladesh that are aiding India’s Look East Policy. The US, as the principal importer of Bangladeshi ready-made garments (the raw materials come from India), at $ 55 billion, 85% of all its exports, and some 16% of its GDP, wants her to hold free and fair elections. There is a wage agitation amongst the garment workers, most likely instigated by the opposition, despite their emoluments being increased from $75 a month to $ 114. The workers want more, but the government has refused further increases in order to maintain the competitiveness of Bangladeshi garment exports. Khalida Zia’s BNP and other supporting political parties have threatened to boycott the elections (once again, having done so in 2014), unless Shaikh Hasina resigns and appoints a caretaker government. Khalida Zia is gravely ill now and under house arrest for alleged corruption, and other senior leaders are in exile. However, under the circumstances of deep political hostility from the opposition and violent agitations ongoing, this seems unlikely. Shaikh Hasina has survived 19 assassination attempts over the years, as an illustration of the political atmosphere. And the device of the caretaker government at election time, used widely between 1996 and 2008, is no longer necessary following a constitutional amendment in 2011. This was necessitated by a military-backed caretaker government that clung to power for nearly a year from 2006. The elections have just been announced to be held on 7 January 2024 by the Bangladesh Election Commission. A boycott by the opposition despite exhortations to the contrary from the EC will result in a certain victory for the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina. The writer is a Delhi-based political commentator. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.