At Political Crossroads: How Turkey presidential poll outcome can determine Ankara-New Delhi relations

Turkey, a nation straddling two continents, has always been a crossroads of cultures and civilizations. It has long been a critical player in the geopolitical landscape, serving as a bridge between East and West.   Now, as Turkey prepares to hold presidential elections, the eyes of the world are once again turning to this fascinating country. The abolition of the Ottoman Caliphate was a significant event that prompted divergent reactions from intellectuals in the Muslim world. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, a military officer and a statesman, founded the Republic of Turkey in 1923 after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in World War I. Atatürk believed that the only way to save the country from disintegration was to modernise and secularise it. Mustafa Sabri, former advisor to the Sultan, and Islamic scholar of the Ottoman Empire, vigorously defended the caliphate’s juridical and socio-cultural necessity. He vociferously argued that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s autocratic rule had abolished the Sacred Law of the Lord of the Worlds. In comparison, Atatürk was the subject of several pan-Islamic and pro-Ottoman poems written by the Egyptian Prince of Poets Ahmad Shawqi, hailing him as a brave hero who overthrew the sultan’s rule for the benefit of popular democracy. However, Atatürk’s secularisation policies were not universally accepted. The election of Turgut Özal as prime minister in 1983 marked a turning point in Turkey’s modern history. Özal was a devout Muslim who believed in market-oriented policies and a stronger relationship between Turkey and the West. He attempted to reconcile Islam with capitalism and helped usher in a new era of economic growth.   However, his policies also helped to strengthen the influence of Islamism in Turkey. Islamist parties, such as the Welfare Party, began to gain more seats in parliament and became major players in Turkish politics.   In 1997, the Turkish military, which had always seen itself as the guardian of secularism, intervened in politics and ousted the Islamist government led by Necmettin Erbakan. The military argued that the government was trying to undermine Turkey’s secular constitution and that it was moving the country towards Islamisation. Since then, Turkey has continued to experience a tug-of-war between secularism and Islamism. The current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was initially seen as a moderate Islamist when he came to power in 2002. He introduced many reforms that were perceived at the time to have been aimed at democratising the country and expanding the rights of its citizens. However, as he consolidated his power, he became more authoritarian and began to curtail civil liberties.   Over the past decade, Erdogan has been establishing a military presence in strategic sites in the Middle East and North Africa. His critics claim that he aims to revive the Islamic caliphate under his rule, extending Turkey’s influence over countries and territories formerly part of the Ottoman Empire.   New maps of Turkey published in 2016 include parts of Syria, Iraq, Bulgaria, and Western Thrace, indicating irredentism that could lead to war. Analysts warn that Erdogan’s ambition extends far beyond Turkey and includes reconstituting the Ottoman Empire and recapturing Jerusalem for Islam. Erdogan himself has stated that his decision to convert Istanbul’s Church of Hagia Sophia into a mosque foreshadows a future pan-Islamic reconquest of Jerusalem.   The Hagia Sophia was the most important church in the Eastern Christian world for nearly 1,000 years until it was turned into a mosque by Ottoman Sultan Mehmet II in 1453. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the founder of the secular Turkish Republic turned the Hagia Sophia into a museum in an effort to westernise Turkey. On 24 July 2020, Erdogan turned the Hagia Sophia into a mosque, fulfilling long-standing Islamist demands. In the present day, Turkey’s political landscape is dominated by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). The stakes are high, as the outcome will determine the future direction of the country and its relationship with the international community. Turkey is a parliamentary republic with a president who has significant executive powers. President Erdogan is seeking re-election, and the election is shaping up to be a battle between secularism and Islamism.   While secularism has been the dominant ideology for most of Turkey’s modern history, Islamism has always been a powerful force. The Islamist AKP has been in power for over two decades, overseeing a period of economic growth and development. But Erdogan’s authoritarianism and curbing of civil liberties has fueled opposition and led to the rise of new political challengers. Turkey’s main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has been announced as the main rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May. The nomination of Kilicdaroglu, who is the chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) founded by Atatürk himself, came after days of wrangling by a six-party alliance over the candidate. He heads the country’s second-largest party and has vowed to reverse many of Erdogan’s policies on the economy, civil rights, and foreign affairs. Kilicdaroglu may take advantage of the economic crisis and soaring inflation that have plagued Turkey in recent years, as well as criticisms of the government’s response to the recent earthquakes that killed more than 46,000 people. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), Turkey’s largest non-aligned political party, is tacitly supporting the opposition alliance’s efforts to unseat Erdogan by not selecting a single presidential candidate to represent them. The HDP, a pro-Kurdish party, has played an important role in past elections and its decision to back Kilicdaroglu would be a significant boost for the opposition’s campaign.   President Erdogan has several advantages, including a consolidated voter base and a disciplined party organisation, a highly uneven playing field, and access to public resources as President.   Turkey is not a healthy democracy. There is voter suppression in Kurdish regions of Turkey, and opposition candidates face legal harassment. The opposition lacks influence in the media. The major media is controlled by the government. It regulates transmission. Its riches are endless. No checks and balances exist.   On election day, however, voting is typically fairly open and transparent, and appropriate accounting is carried out. Erdogan lost in a number of key cities in the 2019 municipal elections as a result of this.   Turkey stands out from nations like Russia, Venezuela, and China due to its transparent and fraud-free polling process, despite the polarisation and political unrest leading up to the election. This election is seen as one of the most consequential in the republic’s 100-year history. It remains to be seen whether Turkey will continue on its path towards Islamisation or whether it will reaffirm its commitment to secularism and democracy. Turkey and India During the celebration of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and Turkey, Turkish Ambassador to India, Firat Sunel, said, “Turkey and India share deep-rooted historical and cultural linkages. The aspect of economic and cultural relations between ancient India and Anatolia dates back to the Vedic ages.” The Hittites and the Mitanni empire signed a treaty around 1400 BCE in Anatolia, which constitutes most of the territory of contemporary Turkey. The treaty invoked several deities, including names found in the Rig Veda - Indra, Varuna, Mitra, and the Ashvins. Should the leaders of Turkey and India be willing to explore their ancient connections and exchanges, these historical ties could serve as the groundwork for the development of contemporary relations between the two nations. Marking the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic relations, there exists ample opportunity to foster stronger economic and cultural ties that far surpass their current level.  Turkey is strategically important due to its geographical location as it is located at the crossroads of three continents. This makes it an important hub for trade and commerce. The country serves as a bridge between the East and the West, connecting major markets and providing a gateway to both Europe and Asia. Historically, Turkey and India have failed to develop close relations due to Turkey’s pro-Pakistan stance on the Kashmir issue and differing Cold War strategic orientations. However, with the Cold War waning, Turkish Prime Minister Turgut Özal visited India in 1986 to rebuild relations. The two sides reached several agreements but the Pakistan factor remained a vexing issue. Bülent Ecevit, the only Turkish prime minister considered pro-India, travelled to India in April 2000, and prior to the visit, Ankara changed its traditional stance on Kashmir, leading to an upswing in Turkey-India relations. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s visit to Turkey in September 2003 steered the bilateral relationship in new and promising directions.   Since then, the relationship has advanced most rapidly in the area of trade. In fact, the bilateral trade volume soared from $505 million in 2000 to $8.7 billion in 2018. However, the Pakistan factor, particularly the Kashmir conflict, has lately resurfaced as a source of Turkey-India contention. Turkey and Pakistan  Turkey and Pakistan have historically had close ties. Erdogan has visited Pakistan four times in official capacities, strengthening Turkey’s historically good relations with Pakistan. Ankara is pursuing a dual citizenship agreement with Islamabad, and Turkey will have its largest consulate anywhere in the world in Karachi. Defence ties between Pakistan and Turkey have expanded considerably in recent years.   A favourable outcome for Erdogan in the election could potentially strengthen this relationship, which could be problematic for India. Turkey’s growing anti-India activities have also become a major impediment in the development of India-Turkey ties. There is little hope that Erdogan would seek to mend ties with India anytime soon. After all, tensions between India and Turkey are not just about politics but are also rooted in religion and nationalism.   Turkey’s efforts to rebuild its influence in the Middle East and South Asia, along with its support for Kashmir, are driven by Erdogan’s ambition to be a leader of the Muslim world. Conclusion  As the world watches Turkey’s upcoming presidential election with bated breath, it is important for India to consider the potential impact on the region. Turkey’s position as a critical player in the geopolitical landscape means that any shifts in power could have far-reaching implications. From the legacy of the Ottoman Empire to the modern-day challenges facing Turkey, the country’s complex history and politics have shaped its current identity. As India navigates its own foreign policy interests in the region, it will need to carefully consider the outcomes of this election and the impact they could have on the broader picture. The author is an accomplished data engineer and public markets investor with a deep understanding of the financial, IT, and energy sectors. He tweets @DeepakInsights. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .