As war escalates in West Asia, India's security requires fancy footwork

The situation could not be more confusing. On one side, virtual trench warfare is being fought in Ukraine. Israel, on the other side, is bombing Gaza in an effort to eliminate a terror group that is wraith-like in its presence, with the idea of a free Palestine spreading across the world. That’s already been seen in Delhi, with a blast near the Israeli embassy. Off our coast is another series of attacks allegedly by the Houthis targeting ships in the Arabian Sea. In Kashmir, terrorism is again rising. Further, a glowering super-power waits for its chance, not just against India but also against Taiwan. And here’s the curious part: No mediators or peacemakers are around. Not one. Yet the world is at war — not just a remote cyber, espionage, or information war — and this has people dying. That Definition of War Everyone knows that famous Clauzewitzian definition of war, as an extension of policy by other means. ‘Warfare’ is how you fight that war. War remains a decision by policy makers, except this not about a high level group declaring war, but a series of deniable policy decisions. Along with that warfare has diffused too. For instance, anyone with a smattering of interest in the news, would know that it is the United States which is at war with Russia, with the Ukrainians taking the body count. In Israel, as a former proxy of the Israeli state, Hamas seemingly launched a ‘surprise’ attack on a state that has a 24x7 security system, with a famed intel capability. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is as far right as it is possible to get, seems to be seeking, not a capitulation by Hamas, but its extermination together with Palestine itself. As for the Houthis, (who were till a year ago at war with the Saudis) on October 31st, they announced their intention to target Israel for its war, and then followed that up on December 9, with a declaration to target all ships heading to Israel, and later all commercial shipping in an effort to influence the international community on the Palestine war. Decision making among the Houthis is unclear, but that it has outside support is evident from their steadily increasing range of their missiles. Iran denies the US’ allegations of supporting the Houthis. But its role is rather more than evident in the Ukraine conflict, where its fleet of drones are assisting the Russian war effort. It has also sent trainers to Crimea to manage the fleet. That means a deeper meshing of Iran in the war, and methods of warfare becoming difficult to spot. The Quiet Actor To make all this even more complex is the quiet presence of yet another actor in all these policy decisions. As the Houthis use their missiles and UAVs the Iranian signature is more than apparent, particularly in the 2000 km plus range. Though that originated from North Korea, China has long assisted Iran in its nuclear and missile capabilities. That clearly continues. In June this year, the US Treasury accused Iran’s defense attache in Beijing, Davoud Damghani, of coordinating military-related procurements from China for Iranian end-users, including subsidiaries of Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL). Sanctions have been slapped on both sides. That trail of assistance is there in Ukraine as well, though less apparent, since Beijing’s assistance to Russia has been on diverse fronts including diplomacy, and also includes some $100mn worth of drones and mainly dual use items. Ukraine also buys some Chinese weapons, though that seems to have come down drastically according to customs data. But Chinese involvement is crucial to Russia’s weapons manufacturing capability, and its overall economy, enough for what Politico calls a ‘China sized hole’ in sanctions. In sum, the trail of decisions is extremely stretched, from proxy to state, to another proxy, with intentions unclear. That means, the end points are also unclear. The War at Sea Meanwhile, there’s trouble at sea. According to US sources, the Houthis have launched 15 attacks on commercial shipping since October 15. That included the MV Sai Baba, which the US said was Indian flagged. The Navy clarified that it was not, though it did have Indians on board. Then came the attack against MV Chem Pluto, a chemical tanker headed from Saudi Arabia to India. According to reports it is a “a Liberia-flagged, Japanese-owned, and Netherlands-operated chemical tanker”, but with a link to Israel, that is unclear as of now. That a drone could fly over 500 nautical miles (from Iran) or 860 nautical miles ( from Yemen) to hit a moving ship seems incredible. The US claims it was a direct hit from Iran. There have also been attacks against ships which have nothing to do with Israel including the dramatic hijacking of vessels, using helicopters — again on an India bound ship — and the first ever successful attack using an anti-ship ballistic missile (December 15). Whether New Delhi likes it or not it is now part of the whole mess. That was apparent in the unusually combative statement from Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, as he warned “whoever carried out this attack, we will find them even from the seabed. Those behind it will be brought to justice.” He also declared that the government will “work with friendly nations” and ensure the safety of maritime trade. But ‘friendly nations’ are having troubles of their own. The US had earlier announced the setting up of “Operation Prosperity Guardian” under its command, only to face the embarrassment of France, Italy and Spain refusing to take part in this. West Asia countries like Egypt (which loses millions in the Suez) have not criticised the Houthis, and the Saudis have refused to join the new command, despite the offer of an alluring arms package. Riyadh has begun a fledgling peace initiative with Iran, under Chinese auspices, and it has costs in terms of how it wants to be seen in the Arab world, in terms of a defence of Israel. Meanwhile India has sent three warships to an unknown ‘area’ and it is unclear if it will operate with the US. The 39 nation CMF (Combined Maritime Forces) operates here in the area, and in which India takes part. Its component (Combined Task Force 153) already covers the Red Sea, and is to command the new operations. Meanwhile, the US is mulling the costs of using missiles that cost more than a million dollars each, against drones that cost less than a few thousand. Other ‘costs’ include 6 million displaced in Ukraine, 1.7 million in Palestine, a reported 50,000 Russian military dead, Ukraine crossed 10,000 civilians dead in November, while Palestine figures are at about 18,000. That’s a lot of people dead and displaced. Meanwhile, ‘costs’ also include 5000 protests across 100 countries related to the Palestine conflict. India has seen protests as well, but the blast near the Israel embassy adds yet another dimension. And then there is the fact that Red Sea traffic has already dropped by 35 per cent, as major shipping companies re-route. About 30 per cent of global container traffic and more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day typically head through the Suez Canal, which means that global trade is going to pay heavy costs. Considering the picture as a whole, it seems that there is an ongoing quasi-World War that is being played out in different theatres, by multiple actors but with the underlying common thread of a challenge to the US hegemony, and by extension, Israeli dominance. That is not just about forming new alliances, but also eroding existing ones, as apparent in Europe and the Middle East, where countries are shifting policies rapidly in their own national interest. It only needs a war in Taiwan to square the circle completely, and drive the global economy into a sharp downward spiral, with unforeseen consequences. New Delhi has a minefield ahead in terms of the choices it makes, not leaning too much one way or the other. This is non-alignment with a vengeance, which demands not a ‘principled’ staying away from big power politics, but an energetic navigating of choppy waters as something of a big power in itself. The ‘defence of India’ now requires some very fancy footwork indeed, as India gets drawn inch by inch into choosing sides in an evolving global power play. Expect wars closer home, as other countries consider the global turmoil in terms of possible advantages to themselves. There is only one way to go forward. Go out there and mediate. If this doesn’t end soon, that plan for a $5 trillion economy is going to get hit, and hard. The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s_ views. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.