As UN report warns of rising terrorism in Afghanistan, narcotics activity is picking up in Pakistan

The United Nations, for all the abuse and derision thrown at it, sometimes has its uses. On 23 July, it brought out the 32nd report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, on the activities of the most dangerous terrorist activities in the world. Considering that the global media and various statements from different conferences have been only about Ukraine, China and Russia, it’s rather a relief to know that someone somewhere is still concentrating on a terrorist threat that is far from over. That’s especially vital now that a Pakistan minister has admitted that drones are dropping narcotics into India. He didn’t link it to terrorism, but that’s the reality. The UN report: The Al Qaeda aspect Unlike most UN literature – which is mostly what it is with good language and little else, these reports have been surprisingly good, and apparently unafraid to do a little finger-pointing. Last year’s report, for instance, observed that the core Al Qaeda leadership under Aiman al-Zawahiri was from Zabul province along the border with Pakistan. It also noted that he had appeared in eight videos, one of which praised the Indian girl who had protested the hijab ban. In short, Zawahari seems to have virtually come alive the moment he (barely) crossed the Pakistan border into Afghanistan. He was later targeted in a posh house in Kabul, most likely after some strong arm twisting of Rawalpindi. But that story is not over. As of now, evidence points to strong links not only between the Taliban, Al Qaeda and a host of other groups but also that Al Qaeda has infiltrated into Taliban decision-making circles including high-level positions in the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI). That comes under the charge of the redoubtable Sirajuddin Haqqani. Then there is another unnerving fact. New Al Qaeda camps are coming up in Kunar and Nuristan, where Arab fighters are also training as suicide bombers. The governor of Nuristan is an affiliate of the group, but the bad news is this. The area is a known stamping ground of the Lashkar-e-Taiba ( who originated in Afghanistan when it was under the sway of Pakistan) and was a strong partner even then of Al Qaeda. Another curious aspect is that none of the UN reports made a single reference to this group in the last two reports. In 2019, however, it did note that LeT was active in this area, and ‘managing’ relations between groups. Now it seems it has gone quiet. That’s not a good sign. There are a bunch of others Consider the other groups around, all of whom are slated to be enjoying not only Taliban hospitality, and acting as the outlying troops of the group. This includes not only the TTP fighters, (4,000- 6,000); the ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Party - around 1,000 odd) who are located in the far north towards the border with China, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (some 100-500, a new entity called the Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan, and most importantly for India, the AQIS ( Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent) which has sworn to target Kashmir, Bangladesh and Myanmar. This is led by Osama Mehmood (as he calls himself) a Pakistani, and a designated terrorist, as is his Deputy Atif Yahya Ghouri who has been designated by the US. All of these are the Taliban’s storm troops, with a tenuous control from the top echelons. The trouble is that the ‘top’ is divided. For instance, Taliban Emir Haibatullah tried to ‘dismiss’ Sirajuddin as Interior Minister, Mullah Yaqub as acting Defence Minister and Mullah Fazl Mohammad Mazloom as acting First Deputy Defence Minister. That turned out to be a damp squib since no resignations followed. The problem with expecting the Taliban to deal with these myriad groups is therefore immense, particularly when the Interior Ministry depends on them for intelligence and backup. The narcotics angle More problems for India arise from the release of such persons as Haji Bashir Noorzai, kingpin extraordinaire of narcotics rings in the subcontinent, once called Afghanistan’s ‘Pablo Escobar’ who has close ties to the Taliban Emir. Indeed, he is highly regarded across the spectrum as seen from his welcome at the airport when he returned from a US prison in September 2022. Then there’s Mohamed Naim Barich, with oversight of Taliban’s drug trafficking operations in northern Afghanistan. And Haji Mali Idran Khan Haqqani (uncle of Sirajuddin) released by the US in 2019, is a trusted commander who knows eastern Afghanistan like the back of his hand. He is said to have several meth labs in Nimruz. All have strong links to official Pakistan, and the narcotics mafia in the country, particularly Noorzai, who has been effectively hidden by the ISI when he was at the crosshairs of US drug enforcement agencies. Against all this is the now-established fact that the Taliban – on Mullah Haibatullah’s orders – has destroyed 99 per cent of poppy cultivation in Helmand (which produces more than half of the country’s opium) according to ALCIS . Whether this means cultivation is likely to shift elsewhere, perhaps to the north or into Pakistan. What did happen was that the price of ‘meth’ (methamphetamine) production which had soared 600 per cent between 2018-2019, soared to levels not seen earlier. Fast forward to an unprecedented seizure of methamphetamine worth Rs 12,000 crore off the coast of Kochi recently, sent by a Haji Salim network in Pakistan. In other words, some drug kingpins have found the ban on opium extremely useful. Noorzai would be more than aware that while the opium destruction would earn points internationally ( as indeed it has), the Taliban/mafia coffers would continue to grow. And to tie it all up During an interview, Malik Muhammad Ahmad Khan, the Special Assistant on Defence to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, was asked whether drones are used to smuggle drugs at the border. To this, Khan replied, “Yes, and it is very scary. Recently, there have been two incidents where 10kg of heroin was tied to each drone and sent across. Agencies are trying to stop this.” While it is encouraging that a minister is admitting this, the point is that there is a heavy influx of drones (or quadcopters) with this being the 33rd shot down this year. It’s not just heroin that they carry, but 9mm pistols, magazines, ammunition rounds, detonators and explosives. There is no doubt that the Khalistan movement is being fuelled abroad, with recent recruitment efforts in Punjab adding to the danger. But while that is dangerous enough, there are two other issues. One is the power of drug money to fuel terrorism, on which there is little or no data in India. Second, is the equally lack of data on the extent of addiction here, especially among young people, though the UN says India is now one of the largest opiate markets in the world. The drug market is shifting and changing and with it the capabilities and relationships among the 20+ plus terrorist groups in Afghanistan and the mafia gangs in Pakistan. The key bottom line is this. As Pakistan collapses internally and economically, the reliance of its intelligence agencies on drug money is only going to increase, and with it the desire to weaken India through all available means. That’s what ties the whole picture together. And it’s an ugly one. It is time to greatly increase our ability to connect the dots between two highly dangerous activities, even while encouraging the UN groups to look a little closer at just how and where the Lashkar is operating in the melange of terror groups. It’s far from dead, its central institutions remain as do its camps. The Lashkar is likely to reinvent itself and that needs to be monitored closely.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s_ views. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .