As Russia leans towards China, should India be worried?

If 2022 was all about Russia launching ‘Special Military Operations’ against Ukraine in February, China has been hogging the headlines in 2023, especially in the last month. On 10 March, President Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented third term as the country’s president . Shortly thereafter, China shocked the world when it successfully mediated a rapprochement deal between two bitter rivals in West Asia; Saudi Arabia and Iran . Announced on 11 March, almost synchronized with Xi Jinping’s re-election, it was a major global diplomatic coup which caught the world by surprise, especially the US, which felt deceived, having dominated the geopolitics of the West Asian region for decades. This was soon followed by President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Moscow on 21  March which was a well-orchestrated show of solidarity between the two countries and a clear signal to the West that Russia’s isolation through western sanctions would be largely nullified by China’s ‘no hold barred support’ to Russia. Both leaders signed multiple agreements bringing their ties into a “new era” of cooperation, as they called for “responsible dialogue” to resolve the Ukraine crisis. This visit further cemented the “no limits” partnership with no ‘forbidden’ areas of ‘cooperation’ signed between the two countries in February 2022 when President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing, weeks before Russia launched operations against Ukraine. These developments have been closely watched in India and some concern whether Russia’s dependence on China could come at a cost of Russia’s close ties with India. This is especially important in the context of Indo-China ties, virtually frozen ever since the Galwan Valley clash in May 2020 and continued disagreements on completing the military disengagement from contested areas in Eastern Ladakh, India. With China supposedly pulling the strings, could it force or influence Russia to go slow in its ties with India? An objective analysis of recent engagements between Russia and India could provide better insights into this question rather than merely a subjective assessment. Current Thread of Indo-Russia Ties India’s ties with Russia are time-tested and are based on deep trust. Russia has always stood with India in the most difficult times in its independent history of 75 years. It has and remains the largest arms exporter and collaborator for India, not only for routine conventional weapons systems but strategic military platforms like the Sukhoi-30 fighter aircraft, Vikramaditya aircraft carrier (refurbished Russian carrier), S-400 Air Defence system, nuclear-powered submarines, joint collaboration on fifth generation fighter aircraft etc. The list is long and exhaustive. Most of the nuclear plants in India owe their origins to Russia too. In recent months too, events and engagements between Russia and India only reaffirm the close and friendly ties. When the Indian NSA was in Moscow for the 5th multilateral meeting of Secretaries of Security Councils/NSA on Afghanistan in February this year, he was granted audience with President Putin , not something normal for visiting NSAs in Russia. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was in Delhi twice in a month, first for the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting on 1-2 March and then on a standalone visit on 31 March when, apart from meeting External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, he was granted a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi , the only foreign minister in recent times who was given this privilege. Lavrov briefed Prime Minister Modi on the situation in Ukraine and praised India’s foreign policy outlook, adding that India could play an important role in the resolution of the Ukraine war, a significant statement in light of the Chinese president’s visit to Moscow earlier in the month. Some other facts too may deserve highlighting here. There has been some noise about the delayed delivery of S-400 Air Defence systems from Russia. However, it is not unusual for such delays, especially for a country at war. Russia has already made the initial deliveries and balance is already in the pipeline. India’s support to Russia especially at various votes at the UN on the Ukraine war has been acknowledged and appreciated in Russia. In February this year, both countries established Rupee-Ruble trade too , to help bypass the Western sanctions. Banks of both countries are opening Vostro accounts to facilitate it. In midst of Western sanctions and offer of cheap crude oil, India has steadily stepped up the purchase of crude oil from Russia, leading to Russia emerging as the top oil exporter to India bagging almost 23 per cent of Indian oil imports by end of 2022, pipping Iraq which was earlier the top oil exporter to India. On 27 March, India and Russia reached a deal wherein the Russian national carrier Aeroflot was permitted to operate 64 weekly flights , up from 54 flights earlier, a major boost to the beleaguered Russian airline, hit by Western sanctions. In mid of all these developments, Russia unveiled its new foreign policy on 31 March. It reaffirms its “privileged strategic partnership” with India, stating that it will place “special emphasis on increasing bilateral trade, strengthening investment and technological ties”. India and Russia already enjoy a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” which includes an annual summit meeting of the Indian prime minister and Russian president, a format that India has with very few select countries. Both countries also engage in the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Military & Military-Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-M&MTC) as well as 2+2 dialogue, both strategic and high-level engagements. Space cooperation is yet another time-tested engagement and both are currently collaborating closely for India’s first human spaceflight programme “Gaganyaan”. Conclusion The above list of engagements is not exhaustive but only indicative of intensely close engagement between Russia and India. Russia also realises the weight India brings to any global platform and the significance of any endorsement by India. On the other hand, China with all its economic might and ‘no holds barred support’ to Russia remains a global pariah owing to its hawkish stance on Taiwan, military threats in the Indo-Pacific, continuing stand-off with the US  and not to forget, strong (almost confirmed) allegations on the origin of COVID-19 virus from Wuhan in China. When weighed against each other, Russia cannot afford to lose India’s support against what China has to offer. For Russia, ties with India and China are not a zero-sum game. It requires China to help out in the ongoing Ukraine conflict as also to put up a strong alternative global front against the US-led Western alliance. India, however, will remain Russia’s long-term friend and support, especially when it has to seek a responsible and trustworthy voice on a global platform for help or support. India, which itself professes ‘strategic autonomy’ and independent actions in pursuit of its national interests, understands why Russia needs to court China in the present times in pursuit of its national interests. India should, however, remain vigilant and monitor developments closely. India-Russia ties are too deep-rooted and exclusive, to be threatened by China, and India therefore should have no major reason to worry about the current Russia-China intensifying engagement. The author is Assistant Director, MP-IDSA. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  Instagram .