As rift widens, Afghanistan turns to India to break Pakistan’s trade grip

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) carried out an attack on the headquarters of the Federal Constabulary in Peshawar on the morning of November 24. Members of the Pakistan security forces and the TTP were killed in the attack. This was the latest in a series of actions undertaken by the TTP against the Pakistan state. Pakistan routinely blames Afghanistan for sheltering and enabling the TTP to target military and civilian installations in the land of the pure.

A fallout of the TTP’s latest attack would be to reinforce Pakistan’s decision to keep the border crossings along the Durand Line closed to trade and transit between the two countries. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) spokesperson’s response to a Pakistani journalist on November 21 indicates the country’s insensitivity towards Afghanistan.

The journalist observed: “The border crossings between Pakistan and Afghanistan are closed. You stated previously that the reopening of the borders and the resumption of trade with Afghanistan will be contingent upon assessment of the on-ground situation. While that remains to be seen, what would become of the three projects that Pakistan shares with Afghanistan and other regional countries, i.e., TAPI, CASA-1000, and UAP? My other question is on the five-day visit of the Afghan Minister for Trade to India. Should we view this visit with concern, especially when it takes place almost immediately after Afghan Foreign Minister Muttaqi’s visit to India last month?”

The Pakistan MoFA spokesperson responded: “On the broader issue of trade, our policy remains the same… We have closed the border crossings and suspended all trade with Afghanistan due to the support being extended to Fitna Al Khwarij and Fitna Al Hindustan terrorist elements by the Afghan Taliban Regime. The onus of delay in the reopening of the border crossings rests with the Afghan Taliban Regime. Similarly, the projects that you mentioned – TAPI, CASA-1000… success of all these projects is also incumbent upon the Afghan Taliban Regime to halt its support and abetment to terrorist outfits operating from Afghan soil.”

The spokesperson added, “This is an important denominator of our trade and economic engagement with Afghanistan… Afghan Taliban Regime should also stop Afghan nationals from carrying out terrorist attacks inside Pakistan. On the visit of the Afghan Trade Minister to India – these are developments between the two sovereign countries. Pakistan remains committed to trade connectivity and the improvement of trade ties in the region. Our relations with Afghanistan are based on their own merit and considerations and not on third-party involvement.”

Pakistan now calls TTP Fitna al Khwarij and the Balochi militants Fitna al Hindustan. These terms are derived from Islamic theology which abhors revolt against legitimate political authority. Pakistan’s objective is to portray the TTP as acting against the Sharia and the Balochi militants as acting on India’s instigation. It vainly hopes that it will be able to drive a wedge between the Pashtun and the Baloch people against the TTP and the Baloch militants respectively by using these names. However, both groups are rooted in their respective communities and derive their support because of longstanding and legitimate Pashtun and Baluch grievances against exploitation by the Punjabis, who use the resources of these provinces for their own benefit.

The Pakistani spokesperson’s comments also reinforce Pakistan’s determination to undermine Afghan resistance by closing what has been the best route, till now, for trade for a majority of goods for this landlocked country. However, far from being intimidated, the Afghans seem determined to reduce their dependence on Pakistan for trade and transit.

For this purpose, the Taliban’s influential Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Baradar publicly said on November 12: “The closure of Pakistan’s crossings has not only hurt our traders but also disrupted markets and affected ordinary people.” Baradar also instructed traders to stop importing inferior medicines from Pakistan and look for alternative trade destinations and transit routes. He was critical of Pakistan for causing economic and humanitarian suffering in Afghanistan for political purposes.

Afghanistan’s Industry and Commerce Minister Alhaj Nooruddin Azizi’s official five-day visit to India — November 19-25 — is significant in the context of Baradar’s pronouncements. India is Afghanistan’s largest export market. A study by the Pakistan Business Council (PBC) in 2024 noted that Afghanistan exported goods worth $666 million to India, while its imports from India were around $320 million. The same study noted that Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan amounted to $1.14 billion in 2024. They consisted of “cereals, cement, pharmaceuticals, edible oils, vegetables and textiles.” In addition to the formal trade, informal trade or smuggling from Pakistan to Afghanistan amounts to $2-3 billion.

Most Afghans are convinced that Pakistan has treated their country like a colony. That is one reason why it has never allowed Indian goods to go to Afghanistan via its Punjab land route. It is afraid that Afghans will prefer Indian goods which will lead to an end to Pakistan’s dumping its inferior products in the Afghan market. The informal trade takes place mainly in Pakistani currency, which also indicates Pakistan’s economic intentions towards Afghanistan.

It is noteworthy that fuel oil comes to Afghanistan from Iran and Turkmenistan.

Azizi’s visit to India indicates Afghanistan’s desire to break the stranglehold of Pakistan on its transit and trade. It is not unnatural for the Afghans to seek greater Indian participation in their country’s economic life. For this purpose, Azizi met government ministers, officials and businessmen and sought Indian investments in Afghanistan and also an expansion of trade.

After meeting Azizi, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated on X: “Discussed ways to strengthen our trade, connectivity and people-to-people ties. Reiterated India’s support for the development and welfare of the people of Afghanistan.”

The critical factor in enhancing India-Afghan economic and commercial ties is connectivity. Reportedly, India is also considering an air corridor for importing Afghan goods. Naturally for this purpose Afghan airlines would have to be used because Pakistan does not allow Indian airlines to overfly Pakistan. However, if Pakistan wishes to interrupt an air trade corridor it can ban overflights from Afghanistan to India. This is apart from the commercial viability of an air economic corridor.

Azizi was also reported as saying in Delhi that Afghanistan would promote the Chabahar port route. However, there are issues here too. These extend from the capacity of the port to the costs of transporting goods via this route to northern and eastern Afghanistan. All these are real difficulties and it will require creative and expensive methods for India to overcome them. However, India’s strategic interests demand that a great effort be made in this direction.

There is another aspect that the Afghan authorities will have to consider. Through the decades, trade and transit from Pakistan to Afghanistan has created vested interests in both countries. They will use smuggling supported by the Pakistani authorities. Hence, the Taliban government may have to use more than just persuasion to turn the attention of the country’s traders to other routes and also keep prices down because of the precariousness of the Afghan economy.

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations have always been difficult. Pakistan has always sought, as it is doing today, to leverage transit against Afghanistan. On its part, the Afghans are trying to break the Pakistani stranglehold. They are turning to India. It will be difficult for Afghanistan to substitute the Pakistani route, but they want to gain new options and India must assist them in this effort. It would be useful for India to have discreet and purposeful conversations on all Afghanistan-related issues with Iran, the Central Asian Republics and Russia.

(The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)