As Israel 'gradually expands' ground operations into Gaza amidst mounting international pressure, will it prevail?

Israel’s Air Force is pounding northern Gaza for the past few nights as it ‘shapes the battlefield’ before its battle tanks and ground forces launch the much-anticipated ground offensive into Gaza. Targeted ground raids with tanks and Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC) have been undertaken to strike and knock out key Hamas leaders as well as command and communication installations in Gaza, especially northern Gaza. Media reports indicate that over 100 fighter aircrafts struck around 150 ‘underground targets’ in northern Gaza on the night of 27/28 October 2023. Armoured tanks and battle formations have meanwhile lined up waiting for the green signal to cross into Gaza. In the early hours of 28 October, an Israeli strike knocked out a key communication tower in Gaza plunging Gaza into an internet blackout and communication blackout. Inputs from the battlefield and statements from key Israeli commanders indicate that the full-scale offensive is imminent. However, with each passing day, pressure as well as opposition to the extremely punitive strikes undertaken by Israel resulting in deaths of thousands of civilians in Gaza, is building. Amidst this, questions are being asked whether Israel can undermine the appeals and warnings from around the region and globe, and still launch a full-scale offensive? Increasing international pressure The visuals and memories of the barbaric Hamas attack on 07 October still haunt Israel and the international community. However, the resultant air and artillery strikes by Israel in the past three weeks, killing thousands of innocent civilians including women and children, has forced the international community to stand up and recognise that Israel too is blameworthy of ‘war crimes’. The UN General Assembly, in its Special session on 27 October, adopted a resolution sponsored by Jordan, calling for an “immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce” between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza. It also demanded “continuous, sufficient and unhindered” provision of lifesaving supplies and services for civilians trapped inside the enclave. The resolution was passed with 120 votes in favour, 14 against and 45 abstentions. Gilad Erdan, Ambassador of Israel to the UN, immediately denounced the resolution stating, “Today is a day that will go down in infamy and that the UN holds not even one ounce of legitimacy.” Earlier, Brazil’s President denounced the Israeli strikes stating that this is not war but a genocide, which has already killed about 2,000 children who had nothing to do with it. UN agencies too have been sounding alarm over the humanitarian crisis caused by complete blockade of Gaza enforced by Israel and the death and destruction being caused on civilians by Israeli strikes which have already resulted in deaths of over 7,000 civilians and displacement of over one million of the population. On 17 October, the UN warned that Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip are being “packed into an ever-smaller area” and life-saving essentials have essentially run out, appealing for a humanitarian truce to allow aid access. “We can’t move humanitarian trucks and convoys while active bombardment is ongoing,” UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. The World Food Programme (WFP) too warned that that shops have been unable to replenish supplies and will run out of available food stocks in “less than a week”. WHO and the UN have said that thousands of Palestinians trapped in Gaza are likely to die in the coming days if they are denied access to urgently needed relief supplies, especially medicines. Within the region too, voices against Israel’s aggression are becoming louder and fiercer. OIC issued a statement on 27 October expressing deep pain and distress over events in Palestine as a result of wanton Israeli aggression and appealed for collective help and aid to the Palestinians. Nine Arab countries on 26 October issued a joint statement condemning the targeting of civilians and violations of international law in Gaza adding that Israel’s right to self-defence after a devastating 7 October attack by Hamas militants did not justify neglecting Palestinians’ rights. The nine Arab countries include Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. At the ninth meeting of GCC Ministers for Islamic Affairs on 25th October, Saudi Minister of Islamic Affairs Sheikh Abdullatif Al-Sheikh, reiterated the steadfast commitment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to stand with the Palestinian people stating that it is a cause that unifies Islamic and Arab nations, transcending boundaries and impacting humanity as a whole. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, speaking at the UN Security Council debate on 25 October accused the international community’s negligence so far to work to immediately stop the collective punishment carried out by the Israeli war machine against the people of Gaza and attempts at forced displacement that will not bring us any closer to the security and stability that we all seek. Turkey has taken a more confrontationist stand with its President calling that Hamas is not a terrorist organization but a patriotic liberation movement fighting to protect Palestinian lands and people. Egypt too is raising the ante slowly especially after a few missiles have landed in its territory. Rafah crossing was hit on 10 October and again on 27 October, an unidentified projectile hit two Egyptian Red Sea towns, wounding at least six people in Taba and an electricity plant in the town of Nuweiba, prompting the Egyptian President Al-Sisi to issue a warning on 28 October of possible expansion of conflict, adding that the region risked becoming a ‘ticking time bomb’. Qatar, which hosts the Hamas HQ, too has been belligerent stating that Israel is “solely responsible for the ongoing escalation due to its continuous violations of the rights of the Palestinian people, including the recent repeated incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque under the protection of the Israeli police”. On 25 October, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, Qatari PM added in a press conference with the Turkish foreign minister in Doha that “Qatar condemns the collective punishment policy” on Gaza. The military challenge The ground offensive into Gaza is not going to be a cake walk and Israel knows it well. Its experience of the previous two ground offensives during Operation Cast Lead in 2008-09 and Operation Protective Edge in 2014 have made it very clear that it is going to be a battle of attrition, in a territory which the Hamas has prepared well and where it has mastered the skills of fighting. The intricate network of underground tunnels running into more than 500 km, popularly known as the ‘Gaza Metro’ poses a formidable challenge. The heavily concretised and deep tunnels are mostly undamaged as the Israeli bombs and missiles do not have the capability to penetrate over 30 metres i.e. 150 feet of earth. Added to it is the fact that the tunnels are running under densely built buildings which camouflage their visibility and cushion the shock of missile/bomb attacks. These tunnels are reportedly also the place where Hamas has kept over 220 hostages from Israel, adding to the challenge in targeting the tunnels. Plus, these tunnels have numerous escape routes as well as cut-offs, meaning that only small portions of damage even in case of direct Israeli attack in the tunnels. They also store weapons and rockets as well as house critical command elements of Hamas operations. The densely populated and very thin Gaza strip is a nightmare for any conventional army fighting a guerrilla force. The use of Israeli tanks and armored vehicles will be severely restricted as there is very little space for maneuver in Gaza. In such a battle, the defender has the advantage and is able to launch ‘sneak attacks’ and bog down enemy’s armored columns. Adding to the challenge is the support that Hamas is likely to get in case of a full-scale war. Hezbollah from Lebanon and Syria is already engaged. Despite warnings from PM Netanyahu, it is unlikely that Hezbollah will pull out from the war, opening a second front against Israel. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), against which Israel has been engaged in numerous skirmishes over the past two years is already upping the ante in the West Bank. Israeli raids into Jenin camp in the West Bank in July this year as well as frequent targeting of Palestinian worshippers in Al Aqsa Mosque has kept the temperatures high in the West Bank and despite being occupied by Israel, indications are that the West Bank and PIJ will keep Israeli forces occupied too. The question of Iran in any Israeli conflict cannot be ignored. Iran is monitoring the developments closely and has already warned that it can launch a pre-emptive strike if provoked. The US has warned Iran to keep out of the conflict. On 27-28 October, US forces targeted some key IRGC posts of Iran in Syria, as a warning too. But with Iran counting Israel as ‘enemy No.1’ and being a key benefactor to Hamas as well as Hezbollah, its entry into the conflict, albeit by proxy is a very likely possibility. Although the US has moved aircraft carrier-based forces into the region, Iran is unlikely to be deterred. In this context, the Persian Gulf crisis of 2019 may be recalled when the US and Iran had almost come to the edge of a military conflict after Iran targeted the US and other western ships in the Persian Gulf. Here, we must also remember that, unlike in 2019, Iran is on a path of reconciliation with the Arab world and this fight is not about Iran and the Saudi led Arab world but about Israel versus the rest in the region. Israel stands defiant Despite all the challenges and pressures, Israel stands defiant and resolute. It is banking on its military superiority and the support from its staunchest ally, the US, to lend critical support, especially against any other power like Iran getting directly engaged in the war. It has vowed to flatten Gaza to the ground and eliminate Hamas from the face of the earth. Israel has tried to build a narrative that this war is about the right of existence of Jewish people, forgetting its sense of rage and revenge, that any action that it takes, would also decide the future and possibility of a state for the Palestinian people too. On the question of occupying or governing Gaza, Israel has left it unanswered for the time being, saying that it will be a call taken once the dust settles down after the war. For Netanyahu, already facing tremendous backlash over his domestic policies, especially the judicial reforms, this war could be the end of his chapter, if it doesn’t go as per plan. Israel has called the UN as a useless body and has called for the resignation of its Secretary General. It has dismissed concerns of people and countries in the region, as irrelevant and has no guilt over thousands of lives lost as collateral damage in its strikes into Gaza. As the ground offensive slowly rolls into Gaza, it is bound to be a bloody and messy war, lasting over weeks and months. Hamas will definitely suffer heavy losses, but will it be obliterated is a question for serious debate. However, there is little doubt over the mass casualties that innocent civilians will suffer in Gaza and the destruction that Gaza will have to bear, something that might take decades to rebuild. The possibility of a ‘Two State Solution’ now looks a distant dream as also Israel’s integration into the region and the future of Abraham Accords. The inability of the international community to restrain Israel presents a gloomy picture on the future of world peace. The words of pain and despair of Queen Rania of Jordan during an interview to the CNN on 25 October, at the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, would perhaps hound Israel and the international community for long. “Are we being told that it is wrong to kill a family, an entire family, at gunpoint, but it’s OK to shell them to death? I mean, there is a glaring double standard here,” she had said. This conflict, launched as a result of a brutal terror attack by Hamas has definitely changed the regional landscape for forever and perhaps is an important and irreversible inflection point in global geopolitics, consequences of which will reverberate for decades and generations to come. The onus of how this conflict develops and ends, is totally in the hands of Israel as it initiates the ground offensive. Question is whether Israel will heed to reason and exercise restraint or will it unleash its war machinery and create havoc and destruction. The author is Assistant Director, MP-IDSA. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s views._ Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.