As Bhutan walks a tightrope balancing two Asian giants, India must counter China's land-grabbing endeavours

Bhutan’s fifth King, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, visited India earlier this month. The King paid a visit at the invitation of President Droupadi Murmu, which concluded in a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Tandi Dorji, Minister of Foreign Affairs and External Trade, and other top officials from Bhutan’s royal government accompanied the king for the visit. The King’s visit’s timing has become a topic of discussion. And rightfully so! PM Lotay Tshering’s comments to a Belgian newspaper about resolving the Doklam tri-junction conflict “tri-laterally,” with Bhutan, India, and China as “equal” interlocutors, sparked outrage in New Delhi. He also indicated that he planned to complete boundary demarcation talks on disputed areas in the next “one or two more meetings,” and that a Chinese “technical team” will be visiting Bhutan soon. While Bhutan’s Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji emphasised that “India’s interests on the Doklam tri-junction will not be harmed or “compromised” by Bhutan and China’s agreement for a three-step “road map” to resolve their outstanding border disputes,” it has triggered significant concern in New Delhi. At this moment, all countries around the world are witnessing great power competition. With the centre of geopolitics shifting to Asia-Pacific, there is little doubt that the South Asian region in general, and India in particular, would experience immense pressure from a rising China. While India and Bhutan have a remarkable and long-standing bilateral relationship anchored on trust, openness, and mutual understanding, China’s presence and growing influence in the region cannot be dismissed. There is now a slight churn in the tranquil waters as a result of Lotay Tshering’s comments. They will undoubtedly have an impact on how India views its neighbours and intends to navigate the coming storm. Despite the proximity, the number of high-level visits between the two countries continues to be rather disappointing. The Bhutanese King last visited PM Modi in September of last year, when he stopped over in Delhi on his way to attend British Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral. PM Modi and Bhutan’s Prime Minister Lotay Tshering have spoken frequently on the phone, but they last met in Thimphu for a bilateral meeting in August 2020. Additionally, this is the first high-level meeting between the two leaders since Bhutan and China’s boundary discussions made significant headway. In a recent statement paralleled to Bhutan government’s announcement of the King’s visit, the Ministry of External Affairs said that the visit was part of the “long standing tradition of high-level exchanges between both countries”, and that the leaders would “review the entire gamut of bilateral cooperation and to further advance the close bilateral partnership, including economic and development cooperation.” Bhutan is clearly trapped in an increasingly precarious balancing act. The government intends to normalise and strengthen ties with two of its neighbours. Bhutan is also expecting for a swift resolution of Indo-China boundary disputes, as it seeks to press forward with the Doklam tri-junction situation. Bhutan has been working tirelessly in recent years to resolve its boundary conflicts with its northern neighbour. Bhutan and China signed a “three-step roadmap” for accelerating talks to demarcate their land boundary in October 2021 after 24 rounds of talks. The discussion focuses on two valleys to the north of Bhutan and the Doklam region to the west of Bhutan, which is close to the tri-junction with India and was the site of the confrontation between Indian and Chinese forces in 2017. Fast forward to January 2023, when Bhutan and China met in Kunming and achieved a “positive consensus” on how to proceed with the talks. India has been especially wary of the possibility of a “swap agreement” between the two countries, which might jeopardise its security at the trijunction. Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra arrived in Thimphu for bilateral talks three days after the Kunming discussions. Bhutan has underlined that Doklam is a junction between India, China, and Bhutan, and that it is not up to Bhutan to solve the problem on its own accord. It has urged all three stakeholders to handle the issue collaboratively and, most importantly, as equals. Bhutan is walking a tightrope, attempting to strike a balance between its two biggest trading partners and neighbours. It is clear that the Bhutanese administration, as well as its competent monarch, are quickly coming to the realisation that they must settle their disputed boundary while ensuring that bilateral ties with either of its neighbours does not deteriorate. Bhutan is undoubtedly concerned about the deterioration of relations between India and China. While India has long-standing economic and cultural links with the country, financing hydropower project establishment and importing its energy, China also has substantial economic ties with Bhutan. It is essential to acknowledge that international politics cannot be viewed solely through binary lenses. It’s not only a case of winning or losing. Given the regional power dynamics, India needs to present itself as accommodating of Bhutan’s standpoint, rather than viewing the recent statements and actions as a “loss” for India and a “win” for China. We must remember that India is closely involved in Bhutan’s cultural and economic development. There is no possibility for Bhutan and China to reach a bilateral agreement without engaging India. Even more so since the Doklam impasse, it is clear that the boundary conflict between Bhutan and China is not a bilateral one. Bhutan, for its part, has acknowledged India’s concerns and assured it that Bhutan and China’s endeavours will neither undermine nor compromise India’s interests at the Doklam tri-junction. With the situation in eastern Ladakh having deteriorated in the last two years, the Bhutanese next door are undoubtedly keeping a close eye on developments. The presence of two regional, competing powers, and the ensuing balancing act of a smaller, regional nation, is a geopolitical reality, as unpleasant as that may be for New Delhi and Beijing. Bhutan’s actions are therefore entirely routine. Despite this, recent events serve as a reminder that New Delhi must tread carefully in the coming years in order to position itself as a dependable, powerful power. China’s influence over the region continues to increase and there is little doubt that it will resort to coercive diplomacy and arm-twisting its neighbours into handing over large swaths of land. It is imperative that India develops a strategy to counter this, as China’s land-grabbing operations will have far-reaching consequences for the South Asian power landscape. The author is presently associated with a premier think-tank in India, specialising in defence, security, and strategic studies. Her research interest and focuses of analysis are defence strategy, geo-economics, foreign affairs, and the implications of Chinese security developments on the region, especially India. Views expressed are personal. Read all the  Latest News,  Trending News,  Cricket News,  Bollywood News, India News and  Entertainment News here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.