As a redesigned world takes shape, Moscow and Beijing are being forced into an all-new alliance

It’s a bit of old news that Russia-China military games are to start on 13 August. Making it notable is the fact that the decision to conduct them was taken in the pre-Ukraine conflict era, probably in 2021. Nevertheless, the script is impressive: 38 nations are to participate, 12 of them will lend their territory to all kind of military exercises, including India, Iran, Uzbekistan and Venezuela well as Niger and Rwanda. But we live in a new era now, one that started with two twin-like crisis situations, around Ukraine and Taiwan. In the old era, Russia and China were conducting military manoeuvres every year since 2005, but these were relatively minor games, rehearsing joint action in very local potential conflicts. In fact, they were only imitating “anti-terrorist operations”, something like what happened in Syria recently, or in pirate-infested waters near the Horn of Africa. The question is, how about today — will we see something like a drastic increase in cooperation between Moscow and Beijing? And what kind of increase it may be? So far, we can only guess. The signs are there, however. All the experts on this side of the Russo-Chinese border have noticed unprecedented language used in official remarks after the meeting of the two foreign ministers, Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi, in Phnom Penh (Cambodia) very recently. Both nations declared their intentions to drastically increase almost everything, from mutual trade to our general “resistance to hegemony of the West”. Words are just words, by now we may only guess at their meaning, but at least, today we surely know that there is something to guess about. How about a full-scale military alliance, first of all? Until very recently the answer was, “There is no need for that”. The Ukrainian war, conducted by Russia, never needed and will probably never need any Chinese assistance, be it hardware or any other supplies. Russia obviously has enough of that. Likewise, in the hot spot around Taiwan, China can manage alone and has everything it needs for that. But then there is such a thing as cooperation in producing a new generation of weapons. Russia and China resumed military contacts in the late 1990s, and at that time the formula was simple. Russia’s military industry at that time has survived the post-Soviet disaster thanks to orders from China (and India). China has re-armed itself thanks to purchases from Russia, being not able to produce most of the weapons in required. This era is over by now, for many reasons. Both nations have moved to a whole new generation of weapons, produced locally, including hypersonic missiles. In general, China now is as strong in production of fighter jets or missiles as Russia is. Simple sales of weapons to China are gradually diminishing to become a secondary process. Russian military experts are publishing guessing lists of technologies where China may be interested in Russia’s help, as well as similar lists of areas, where Russia is falling behind (like, maybe, ship-building). All that is a subject for discussion of great magnitude. So far, the two nations have agreed to a joint programme of military contacts, signed in December 2021. But it is a modest document, prepared long before the current twin crisis, the one around Ukraine and Taiwan, cropped up. And the programme stretches only up to 2025, which means planning for a relatively short period of time. All in all, the situation is very much like in 1954, when the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev came to Beijing for his first visit. USSR was very willing to strengthen China at the time, but then Chairman Mao have asked his guest: How about your giving us an atomic bomb? And that’s when Khrushchev said “no, no”. There were too many complications to consider. Moscow, at the time, was just not ready for such drastic moves. It was watching in amazement the emergence of a new reality where dozens of new independent nations were entering the global stage, and had no idea about the shape of the world to come. [caption id=“attachment_11045731” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]  Chinese leader Mao Zedong with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in August 1958. AFP File[/caption] We are witnessing the beginning of a similar and total redesign of the world, with no clear idea where things are going to. You may think that the general idea is simply a re-emergence of two opposing global camps, isolated from each other economically, ideologically, and technologically. At least, that’s what the West may be thinking. According to AP, the US Congress is actively promoting an idea that CIA has to create a powerful “China house”, just like the State Department did recently. The gist of that idea is, the Middle East is not interesting (or not dangerous) anymore, while China is both. Russia, in American political thinking, should be seen as China’s junior partner, or at least propagated as such, so as to ignite the flame of Russian pride and nationalism. And then there is such a trifling thing as global economy, which definitely is resisting all kind of political dreamers. East and West, two separate production bases and two different markets for everything, like semiconductor chips, and steel, and grain… it looks like an artificial idea, likely to be broken up by realities sooner or later. All that means that Moscow, as well as Beijing, are in need of a very complicated process of joint re-evaluation of their national interests for decades to come. The shape of the future bilateral alliance, its scope and limits, will have to be determined not exactly at conferences and seminars, but in the course of hectic and nervous reacting to all the unexpected challenges of the time. The US may have done everything thinkable to push China and Russia together into a stronger and yet stronger alliance, but that factor alone should not be the only reason for our joining hands. In fact, there are so many factors to consider, that we may be talking about years and years of groping in the dark for an ideal coupling of our huge nations. Dmitry Kosyrev is a columnist for the Russian State agency website ria.ru, as well as for other publications. Read all the Latest News , Trending News , Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.