Amid rising terrorism in Pakistan, it's time to take note of the red lights ahead

The chaos seems even worse than usual. Seven attacks in about 24 hours, killing more than 25 security personnel, a record even for Pakistan which has been in the throes of self-inflicted injury on the economic, social and now security dimension for some time. Now, however, everything seems to have taken a sharp upward curve. While news channels focused on the terrorist attack against the Mianwali Air Force base, not far was a tragedy of almost epic proportions as thousands of refugees were pushed out in what is probably the worst case of forced migration seen in recent decades. The new kid on the block The most serious concern is the attack on the Air Force base. Satellite imagery shows serious damage, including at least 10 hangars, though army officials have run down the damage as limited to grounded aircraft. Pictures of slain terrorists are doing the rounds, to show the bravery of security forces, which is all very well. But what is remarkable is the planning that went into the attack, and the high motivation of cadres of the Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), which has claimed responsibility. The group was possibly founded in February this year and is headed by Maulana Abdul Yaghistani. That’s nom-de-guerre to refer to the lands of Yaghistan (literally the land of the rebels) which was an independent battleground of the mujahids who fought the British in the tribal lands between British India and Afghanistan. The objective of the present-day group seems to be setting up an Islamic system in Pakistan according to a Twitter account cited by MEMRI. That account is said to have had over 2,000 followers but seems unavailable now. The inspiration for all this is cited as being Sheikh-ul-Hind which refers to Mahmud Hasan Deobandi of the Darul Uloom Deoband in Deoband, Uttar Pradesh. The group’s statement says that ‘Islamic scholars’ sought to revive Sheikh-ul-Hind’s mission through peaceful means, but the ‘secular Pakistani elites’ who came created various obstacles. TJP’s is to achieve its goal through “hundreds of mujahideen and dozens of fidayan of Islam (who) are ever ready to sacrifice with money and body” and it also invited other religious political parties to join it. Is it a stated target? The security institutions are part of the ‘anti-shari’a system’. It has been claiming attacks since 12 May and published a picture of its first shaheed. No shortages there, since then it has logged at least five suicide attacks since then. The PAF attack however is its first massive attack. What is the TJP? This is all rather perplexing. Mahmud Hasan Deobandi has rather an illustrious lineage, with his father – who co-founded the Darul Uloom Deoband and was a professor at Bareilly College. During the revolt of 1857, his father was transferred to Meerut and Hasan was shifted to Deoband. He strongly opposed the British Raj and was arrested in 1916 and imprisoned in Malta. He wrote religious edicts in support of the non-cooperation movement and advocated Hindu-Sikh-Muslim unity to achieve freedom thereby encouraged Muslims everywhere to join the freedom movement. Overall, an interesting source for a violent struggle in Pakistan. The TJP itself has more than proven its mettle, with some five suicide attacks under its belt even before the PAF attack. That raises the possibility that it is a faction of the TTP itself – likely given that all these are loose confederations – or even one that has split from Al Qaeda. Even more interesting, the TTP recently conducted a massive operation against Shias in Parachinar, in tandem with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and possibly the Taliban. That was carried out for more than 10 days with all exits sealed. There’s an interesting cocktail of groups operating, sometimes together, and often as not, jealously guarding their turf. Where the TJP fits into this is yet to be clear. But with the PAF attack, it can claim a ‘top gun’ status. That brings rewards of all kinds including more recruits, and more money. Is a message being sent? That several groups are operating together, becomes even more evident like the strike itself. The attack on the highly guarded camp, close to the tribal regions, was a key training centre, upgraded in 2017 to host among others a ‘Shooter Squadron’, an innovative idea to allow pilots to bridge the gap between low and high-tech aircraft. According to sources, it houses the Chinese Karakorum-8P fighter trainer aircraft, possibly two squadrons of F-7P and the No. 86 SAR (Alouette III) units. That pre-dawn attack came a day after insurgents ambushed a military convoy in Baluchistan’s Gwadar district, killing 14 soldiers. Simultaneously, officials reported a  bomb blast in Dera Ismail Khan as a police bus passed by, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Someone was sending a message, and it was not just the TJP. A tragic exodus; Those messengers are not hard to seek. Pakistan has just begun one of the largest deportations in the recent history of some 1.4 million Afghans, something which the United Nations has pleaded against, also noting that Afghans have been subjected to imprisonment, exploitation and “undignified’ treatment – the last evident all over social media. Taliban Defence Minister Mullah Yaqub and Sirajuddin Haqqani have all railed against it as “Unislamic” (which it is) and the rage at this treatment of their brethren is palpable. Not that this is going to make life any easier for the women and children at least. Afghanistan has just been through another natural disaster, in the form of an earthquake, measuring 5 plus on the Richter scale, and turning an already starving area into dust. More than that, many of the Afghans being pushed out are Hazaras, who are the most outrageously persecuted in Afghanistan. Many will prefer to die rather than leave. And the ultimate irony. These millions left due to Pakistan’s decadal prosecution of a proxy war against Afghanistan. No one leaves their country unless they have to. Pushing out the Afghans won’t win the war Another irony? A research report notes that terrorist incidents have increased by a phenomenal 73 per cent since the Taliban took over. That’s rather a poor reflection of Pakistan’s two-decade proxy war. That triumphant picture of then DG ISI Lt Gen Faiz Hameed sipping tea in Serena hotel in Kabul on 4 September, days after the Taliban took over - and which was hailed in Pakistan as the “Serena swagger’ – now seems a travesty and a lesson that hosting terrorist camps for any length of time is dangerous. Hosting them and their myriad relatives, clansmen and criminal cousins for forty years is disastrous. The report also notes that terror incidents have gone up the most in KP and Balochistan, up 92 per cent and 81 per cent respectively. A map of where refugee clusters are, understandably shows these areas as having the maximum refugees. In Pakistan’s limited CT capabilities (it’s more concerned with prosecuting terror than stopping it) a large-scale removal of refugees will solve the problem. It won’t. For one, refugees may offer a pool of recruitment. But the big guns in terrorist groups – like Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud and his three deputies, Mawlawi Faqir Mohammad, Mufti Hazrat Deroji and Omar Khalid Khurasani in TTP are all Pakistani. Then was Aslam Farooqi of the Islamic State Khorasan who was earlier part of a group tied to Kashmir. And they’re all sitting in Afghanistan. Now what Pakistan has done is to hand them several thousand prospective cadres, even while raging at the Taliban for not ‘taking action’ against the TTP. Why the Taliban should, given that the TTP has been faithfully fighting by its side for years? Besides, they are Kabul’s stormtroopers. As the Afghans are harried out, and DG(ISPR) puts a brave face on the attacks, matters are likely to get worse. The chief Gen Asim Munir is now operating across multiple fronts. Apart from the economic mess, and security chaos, there’s an election to run and an enraged population that wants Pakistan to ‘do something’ on the Palestine issue. A smiling Maulana Fazlur Rehman has got his photos clicked with the Hamas leader in Qatar, even while he has escaped multiple terrorist attempts on his life. Other than that, there’s little that Pakistan can do given the mess it is in. Consider that tiny Tajikistan, six times smaller in territory sent a convoy of trucks to Afghanistan with aid. Pakistan sent 50 tents. As terrorist attacks rise – which it will – Pakistan will cease to matter even more, except in one sphere. That is its nuclear weapons. They are now more in danger than they were ever before from cadres who are far from being just a bunch of mullahs. That red light is flashing. Time for the world to take note. The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost_’s_ views. Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.