Amid frequent violent attacks on its citizens, what the future holds for China’s Balochistan plans

On 13 August, 2023, a Chinese envoy faced an attack while en route to a construction site near Gwadar, Balochistan. Although no Chinese citizens were harmed, the attack has created ripples across diplomatic and security circles in China and Pakistan. The security forces reported the two militants dead in the succeeding gun battle. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) promptly claimed responsibility for the incident. Notably, this is not an isolated incident. This occurrence follows a string of analogous attacks targeting Chinese nationals and investments in the region of Balochistan referred to by some as the “occupied province” in western Pakistan. While this might seem like another episode of insurgency against alleged resource exploitation and human rights transgressions by the Pakistani authorities in the province, the recurrence of Chinese involvement in these assaults demands a deeper examination. These series of attacks have persisted since the early 2000s, a period predating the controversial China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, since 2013, coinciding with the inception of CPEC, instances of human rights violations have surged. These allegations, encompassing coerced evictions and notably enforced disappearances, seem intertwined with the facilitation of smooth CPEC project operations, involving both the Pakistani government and Chinese private security entities. An analysis of historical incidents underscores this context: including the killing of three Chinese engineers in Gwadar in 2004 and another in 2007, an assault on Chinese fuel trucks in 2013, attacks on fuel tankers in Chagi in 2015, rockets fired at a Gwadar-Kashgar military convoy the same year, abduction and execution of two Chinese nationals in 2017, a foiled attack on the Chinese Consulate in 2018, an attack at the Pearl Continental in 2019 at Gwadar with numerous casualties, a targetted attack on Karachi Stock Exchange in 2020 because China had 40 per cent stakes in the bourse, the targeted killings of six engineers in Gwadar in 2021, and a blast in Quetta that targeted the Chinese Ambassador in the same year. The most recent attack until 13 August 2023, unfolded in April 2022 in front of a Confucius Institute at the University of Karachi, resulting in the deaths of three Chinese nationals. This recent incident merely amplifies this list of incidents. [caption id=“attachment_13046322” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Author’s Compilation of prominent targeted attacks on Chinese investments and personnel since 2004[/caption] While there is a consistent pattern of attacks and occasional local demonstrations against evictions, the gravest concern continues to be the escalating instances of human rights violations, notably enforced disappearances. The displacement of Baloch residents to accommodate CPEC infrastructure has drawn widespread criticism. A closer examination of the Voice of Missing Baloch’s database underscores a geographic shift in these disappearances, concentrated primarily in Baloch-speaking districts along the CPEC route. This intensification of violations extends beyond suppressing a longstanding anti-state movement. It is exacerbated by the complex intertwining of economic and geopolitical interests spurred by the Chinese presence. The rapid pace of CPEC construction, ostensibly addressing labour needs, has inadvertently brought about demographic changes by introducing non-Baloch-speaking populations. This phenomenon, coupled with a deterioration in human development indicators, poses a significant threat to the Baloch population and their nationalist aspirations. Following the series of dissatisfied, violent expressions of the Baloch people, over 15,000 troops of the Pakistan Army have been stationed, apart from the presence of Chinese Military Companies. In the midst of these dynamics, crucial questions emerge about the future of Chinese investments and the response of the Pakistani government. Political instability has further complicated matters, leading to project delays and impeding the full functionality of the Gwadar port. Moreover, the ineffectiveness within Pakistan’s CPEC Authority has further undermined progress, with signs indicating its imminent dissolution. These developments follow the removal of the former CPEC Authority Chief, Lt Gen (Retd.) Aseem Bajwa, due to similar reasons. With the rising prominence of the Baloch nationalist movement, observers are keenly watching the government’s strategies and the potential consequences. As the unfolding events demand continued attention, the manner in which the State responds will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of Baloch nationalist actions and exert far-reaching implications on Chinese investments and regional stability. The complexities of this situation warrant thorough analysis and a nuanced approach to mitigate tensions and foster progress. The author is an independent security analyst. She has previously served as a Research Assistant at Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi. Her areas of research include India’s Internal Security, especially in the Information Realm. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. 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