2023: Do or die for Congress, litmus test for AAP, but no cake walk for BJP either

The year 2023 is quickly approaching. In the midst of New Year’s celebrations, the threat of Covid 19 has already arrived, but for India, this year will be crucial for politics. Before the general elections of 2024, a number of state elections will be held in 2023 that will determine the future course of politics. After the Bharat Jodo Yatra this year, the fate of the Congress will be determined by the electoral success of this grand march. The Aam Aadmi Party has also stated that its expansion will occur over the next few years, which means that 2023 will reveal a great deal about whether or not the opposition will be unified for the 2024 general elections. However, this year will be difficult for the Bharatiya Janata Party, as the saffron party is in poor shape in many of the states where elections will be held.

Similarly, 2023 will be an important year for Northeast politics. This year, elections will be held in Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Manipur. During the administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the northeastern states have undergone significant development; consequently, the elections in each northeastern state are crucial.

Congress’ future

First, Rahul Gandhi will conclude his Bharat Jodo Yatra in 2023. Rahul Gandhi’s primary objective was to present an ideology distinct from that of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and the Bharatiya Janata Party. The electoral application of his politics, however, has yet to occur. In the Gujarat elections of 2022, neither Rahul Gandhi nor the Congress’s top leadership actively campaigned. Elections in Himachal Pradesh encountered a similar situation. While the party failed miserably in Gujarat because the Aam Aadmi Party stole a significant portion of its vote share, it won the elections in Himachal Pradesh due to its local leadership. There is no doubt that the yatra was a logical and effective way for the congress party to connect with the masses. However, the Gandhi family and, more precisely, the Rahul Gandhi-centric management programme are of great importance. This yatra appears to be more about Rahul Gandhi than the Congress party. In 2023, it will be intriguing to see whether or not the Congress Party can use the momentum of this yatra, its leadership, and its ideological stance to win elections.

Both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are governed by the Congress party, which faces elections in 2023. In both states, the party is experiencing severe internal strife. Every day, Chief Minister of Rajasthan Ashok Gehlot and senior leader Sachin Pilot clash. Similar conditions exist in Chhattisgarh. It will be very difficult for the newly elected president of the Congress, Mallikarjun Kharge, to make decisions that will benefit the party. If Kharge and the Congress conduct themselves similarly to Punjab, the party will suffer a crushing defeat in the states.

In 2023, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh will also hold elections. In both states, the Congress party alone or with an ally formed the government after the most recent election, but the BJP toppled those governments through defections and installed its own.

There is no doubt that Congress is in a good position in many of these states like Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. The fight of Congress is for the retention and execution of a good strategy. If they lose Rajasthan and Chattisgarh then the grand old party will have just one state (Himachal Pradesh) in its hand which will not be a good posture before the 2024 general elections. It will be crucial to determine whether the Congress Party can reach the people with the message of such unethical behaviour and win the states. Before the general elections of 2024, this year will be a make-or-break year for Congress.

AAP’s expansion

2022 was Arvind Kejriwal’s most prosperous year for AAP national convenor Arvind Kejriwal. This year began with the Aam Aadmi Party’s sweeping victory in the Punjab assembly elections and concluded with the party receiving approximately 13% of the vote in Gujarat and becoming a national party. Kejriwal has already stated that he will work harder on his expansion strategy in 2023. According to reports, the primary objective of the party will be to contest elections in states such as Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and others. In 2023, elections will be held in each of these states.

The official position of the Aam Aadmi Party is that they are fighting against the BJP, but from Gujarat to the recently announced expansion plan, it appears that Arvind Kejriwal is attempting to advance his political career by disrupting the Congress party’s existing food bank. In Punjab, the AAP formed the government by capturing the congress vote bank, and in Gujarat, Kejriwal received 13% of the congress vote share. If Arvind Kejriwal is able to enter any of the above-mentioned states at this time, it will result in the further destruction of the Congress. Similarly, if the party gains entry into any of these states in 2023, its strength will increase. After the BJP and the Congress, the AAP currently governs two important Hindi heartland states and has representation in the legislatures of two other states.

In 2023, it will be important to monitor Arvind Kejriwal’s politics, as he will have to demonstrate his ability to keep promises in both the Punjab and Delhi municipal corporations. This year, Kejriwal has not been able to fulfill all of his pledges in Punjab, despite making grand claims and distributing gifts. If the same occurs in Delhi with the MCD, which the AAP won by removing the BJP’s 15-year rule, the party will have a difficult time in the 2024 Delhi Lok Sabha elections, and Kejriwal’s credibility will suffer.

Opposition unity

A united opposition in India sounds utopian. But 2023 will also demonstrate whether such unity is possible prior to the 2024 general election. All opposition parties, including Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, K Chandrasekhar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samiti, and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, are attempting to grow in their own ways. The TMC will contest the elections in Meghalaya and Tripura. The party’s core voter base will consist of disenchanted Congress voters. Similarly, if TRS, now known as Bharatiya Rashtriya Samity, attempts to expand, it will be detrimental to Congress. Each political party in India has its own objectives. In the Uttar Pradesh election, for instance, the opposition parties were unable to unite against the BJP, resulting in a resounding victory for the saffron party. The opposition’s unity in India is laughable, as it will never occur if all political parties work to undermine each other’s prospects before deciding to unite. This is why 2023 will determine whether or not opposition unity is possible.

This year will also be significant for these regional parties. If these parties are unable to grow, the national contest will be between Congress and the BJP, with the AAP being the sole victor for having entered the national stage.

BJP’s trouble

The Bharatiya Janata Party will not have an easier time in the 2023 elections, despite the fact that the opposition’s political situation is currently dire. The party formed the government in Karnataka through defections and deception. In contrast, the BJP has performed poorly in the state over the past five years. Basavaraj Bommai is the current chief minister of the state, having replaced Yeddyurappa within a few years. Initially, the BJP appointed Yeddyurappa, a credible figure and a strong leader, as chief minister. According to political experts, Bommai is neither a strong leader with an illustrious grassroots political history nor an effective administrator. According to a number of political reports, the BJP in Karnataka is in poor shape because voter dissatisfaction is growing. In spite of discontent within the Congress due to infighting between former chief minister Siddaramaiah and senior leader DK Shivakumar, the party maintains its position. In this situation, the BJP’s actions in the state in 2023 will demonstrate how the party is attempting to mitigate the damage. Significantly, when internal divisions and issues in HP became prominent in 2022, the BJP failed to deal with them and lost the state to Congress.

In Rajasthan, the BJP will also face a challenge. True, not all is well within the Congress, but for the past five years, the BJP has been unable to present a united house in the state. The Rajasthan unit of the saffron party has approved a relationship with senior leader and former state BJP chief minister Vasundhara Raje, but the party has not yet decided who will lead them in the upcoming election. Even in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, it will be difficult for the BJP to defeat the Congress.

Similarly, this election will demonstrate the BJP’s influence in the northeastern states. In Tripura, the BJP is experiencing renewed internal conflict. In Meghalaya, the prospects for a pre-election alliance with Nationalist People’s Party president and chief minister Connard Sangma are nil. In Telangana, however, it does not appear that the BJP can do much against KCR.

In politics, every year is significant, but 2023 will set the stage for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The pitch plays a crucial role in every cricket match, which is why the 2023 World Cup will have a significant impact on India’s political future.

The author is a Columnist and Doctoral Research Scholar In Media & Politics. He tweets @sayantan_gh. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.

Read all the Latest News , Trending News ,  Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook , Twitter and Instagram .