16th round of Corps Commander-level meet: Will China yield?

Chinese incursions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in April-May 2020 in eastern Ladakh have not helped China strategically, economically or politically. In fact, it has fast-tracked the Indian resolve to develop infrastructure in the border areas, including a number of tunnels for faster movement of men and material, besides providing all-weather connectivity not only in Ladakh region but also in the other border areas including in Arunachal Pradesh. Over the last two years, fifteen rounds of Corps Commander-level talks have been held but the issue has not yet been resolved. In addition to the Corps Commander-level talks, other mechanisms like Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs are also continuing. A virtual meeting through this mechanism has probably paved the way for holding the 16th Corps Commander-level meeting at the earliest, though the dates for the same are yet to be announced. The Working Mechanism meeting was 24th in its series and has been entrusted to resolve border issues in an institutional manner with the ultimate aim of resolving border issues as and when the situation matures. Though the planned 16th round of Corps Commander-level meeting is intended to resolve three outstanding issues — Hot Spring, Depsang plains and Demchok — what will come out of this is a matter of conjecture as the present incursions don’t seem to be either local-level actions or military-level actions. These have stemmed out from the highest level with the apparent approval of political establishment as the actions on the LAC have been followed by mass mobilisation of troops in depth including enhanced activity in other areas of the LAC beyond eastern Ladakh. There were high hopes of the Hot Spring issue getting resolved during the 15th Corps Commander-level meeting as this would not have placed China in any major adversarial strategic position. It was also emerging that some consensus had been reached on the Hot Spring issue, but no way forward on Depsang Plains and Demchok was forthcoming. There were also rumours that the consensus on Hot Springs will be announced at a political level but it did not hold much ground as Hot Spring by itself was a trivial issue to be announced politically. But some still thought that it would happen during the sudden visit of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi on 25 March 2022. It did not happen as it was not to happen. The Indian government was very firm and categorical in its stance which was conveyed by our external affairs minister in no uncertain terms. It was also clarified that bilateral relations could not be normal unless incursions on the LAC were rolled back. With the 15th round of Corps Commander-level talks having been held just two weeks before the visit of the Chinese foreign minister, the euphoria of successful completion of Beijing Olympics and Russian aggression in Ukraine being just one month old, wherein China found a new friend in Russia against a growing anti-US stance, the conditions precluded China to enter into a reconciliatory approach with India. While the Chinese foreign minister gave some assurances, especially related to the adverse impacts on education of Indian students, it was almost a failed visit. There have been major changes since then. It is therefore natural to be more optimistic about the fact that there will be a definite forward movement during the 16th Corps Commander-level talks. If China agrees to revert to pre-April 2020 position followed by the Corps Commander-level talks and/or through border negotiation mechanism alone, it will not give it an honourable exit. Even on previous occasions to resolve the Depsang plains and Sumdurong Chu conflict, political level dialogues helped resolve the issue. It is, therefore, imperative that India also uses its political leverage to settle the LAC issue in a comprehensive manner once the details are fine-tuned during the 16th Corps Commander Level talks as and when these are held.

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Also Read **India will never allow China to make unilateral changes to LAC, says Jaishankar** **Maintaining good relationship between India and China meets interests of both countries, says Chinese defence minister** **Will not tolerate any transgression by China, says NSA Ajit Doval** **India, China border emerging as a bigger flashpoint than Taiwan for a short, sharp war; all bets are off** **Wang Yi’s Delhi visit: He came uninvited, was snubbed, and returned with actionable points**

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The factors after the Chinese foreign Minister’s 25 March 2022 visit to India should facilitate reaching better understanding during the forthcoming 16th round of Corps Commander-level talks:

• The PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command has now announced the third large-scale military exercise around Taiwan, aimed against the US and Taiwan. With such commitment now and likely in the future as well, it will be in China’s interest to keep its western borders with India calm.
• Despite the existing conflict with Russia, China went all out to support Russia in the belief that not only would the Russia-China axis will become strong enough to checkmate the US’ influence in the Indo-Pacific, the South China Sea and Taiwan, but it will also emerge as the most influential nation in the world. With the Ukraine war going on beyond three months and with no end in sight, China’s Russian gamble is likely to fail.
• China was probably hoping that the US would be antagonised with the Indian stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, affecting its relations adversely, taking out India from Quad and applying CAATSA sanctions due to the purchase of the S-400 missile system from Russia. None of these things happened. Instead, there is a better understanding of the Indian position among the US policymakers.
• China has lost its pre-eminent position on the trade front as well with India as the US has become the No 1 trade partner of India in a recently released trade data.
• While the Chinese foreign minister failed to get Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the BRICS summit in person on 22 June and attended it virtually, Prime Minister Modi travelled to Japan on 22 May for an ‘in person’ meeting with Quad leaders. China should be able to discern this political messaging.
• The US has launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) which indicates strong focus from the US to push a strong economic policy in the region to counter China’s aggressive trade policy.
• The Chinese foreign minister also failed to get a major security deal signed with 10 Pacific island nations for which he personally travelled to Fiji and held discussions on 30 May 2022. While China enhanced its clout to some extent based on bilateral agreements, the comprehensive deal remained elusive. The space thus available can be filled by India and its partners. The world now better understands the expansionist agenda of China, thus providing better leverage to India.

If China really wants to be respected, it must concede India’s rise and opt for a graceful exit from the LAC standoff. The 16th Corps Commander-level meet is one such opportunity to do so. The writer is a retired army veteran. Views expressed are personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News ,  Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.