Why India needs to watch his tone more than language after Lt Gen Asim Munir Ahmed takes over as Pakistan Army chief

Lieutenant General Asim Munir Ahmed of the Frontier Force, who commanded the Gujranwala Corps from June 2019 to 6 October 2021 but was also in the news for having the shortest tenure of eight months as the DG ISI is to take over as the Pakistan Army Chief on 29 November 2022. “It is based on merit, law and as per the constitution,” Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told reporters after announcing his appointment.

Lieutenant General Munir was the seniormost among the contenders and was serving as the Quarter Master General at the GHQ, was due to retire on 27 November 2022. Commissioned in April 1986, from the 17th Course of the Officers Training School (OTS) in  Mangla where he was awarded the Sword of Honour. He was commissioned in the 23rd Battalion of the  Frontier Force Regiment a battalion he subsequently commanded. He was GOC, Force Command Northern Areas which looks after the Gilgit-Pakistan border with India under General Bajwa, when he was GOC X Corps and thereafter commanded XXX Corps at Gujranwala extending from Jehlum to Narowal the area of responsibility has always been of strategic importance; and was the site of major battles in both 1965 and 1971.

This corps was also commanded by General Raheel Sharif, who is from the Frontier Force Regiment. He was also the Director General Military Intelligence (DGMI) at GHQ as well as served as the Pakistan Defence Attache in Saudi Arabia and is considered to being close to Saudi Arabia, a major financial supporter of Pakistan. He is also a ‘Hafiz-I- Quran’, one who has memorised the Quran, which points to his religious inclinations in his personal life.

After General Ashfaq Kayani he will be the next army chief to have held the appointment of DG ISI and after two chiefs from the Balouch Regiment. He is like General Raheel Sharif is from the Frontier Force. The last Pakistan Chief who was not from the infantry was General Pervez Musharraf.

General Munir will be the 17th Army Chief since Pakistan gained independence from Britain in 1947, a period that has seen almost twice as many prime ministers in office. While there are some who say he is not a product from the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) but from OTS, it is stated that General Zia ul Haq was also from the OTS. However, what is important is if his religious orientation will also ‘dominate his doctrine’ as far as India is concerned.

In Pakistan, though the president appoints the services chiefs, but the prime minister has the last word in the selection process. To set the ball rolling, the Ministry of Defence receives the dossiers of the senior-most Lieutenant Generals, who have commanded a Corps from the General Headquarters (GHQ), which then forwards them to the prime minister to decide upon the incumbent. The outgoing COAS also gives his informal recommendation to the prime minister about regarding his successor.

When he was replaced by Lieutenant General Faiz as DG ISI as he exposed corruption that was allegedly connected to Imran Khan’s wife Bushra Sheikh and apparently also some of her relatives, many thought his future was limited. But he has now been picked by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif apparently after consultation with his elder brother Nawaz Sharif for the most important assignment in Pakistan but Imran Khan will no doubt feel that his neutrality is affected due to Sharif’s involvement in the selection process.

The six officers in the running for the post in order of seniority were Lieutenant General Asim Munir,  who was the Quarter Master General, Lieutenant General Sahir Shamshad Mirza currently commanding 10 Corps who has been promoted to the rank of General and appointed as Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) Lieutenant General Nadeem Raza who is also retiring, Lieutenant General Azhar Abbas the current Chief of General Staff, who was a strong contender and has now tendered his resignation, Lieutenant General Nauman Mehmood presently the President of the National Defence University ( NDU ), Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid, commanding 31 Corps at Bahawalpur and Lieutenant General Mohammad Amir currently com­manding XXX Corps at Gujranwala.

The  COAS’ appointment is central to Pakistan and the role of the military in Pakistani politics has also been part of the discourse in the open media leading up to this appointment. This is unlikely to change soon, despite outgoing COAS General Bajwa’s public statement that the Army will no longer interfere in political matters.

It is not just because of the political instability and the aggressive campaign by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf but also because of the economic crisis. The appointment has been a subject for much discussion in the media which included giving out political leanings of the Generals which points to a deeper malaise within the system.

There is no doubt that he faces both domestic and external challenges. Pakistan is deeply divided facing economic desperation and extremism. While there will be no let up in the modernisation of the Pakistan Army and its close relationship and increasing collusiveness with China, his first task will be to contend with beating the image the Pakistani Army has taken due to the utterances of Imran Khan regarding their involvement in driving Pakistani policies and politics as also corruption.

However, most importantly, there is a reputational crisis that needs to be addressed. Though it is hard to predict what will follow once General Munir assumes his appointment and realises his position in the power matrix of the country; the past shows us that at such moments, the military opts for a less visible political role to allow the institution to shore up its image and legitimacy in Pakistani society.

General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani steered a similar tactical retreat when he succeeded General Musharraf. However, with the prevalence of social media a tactical retreat while continuing to exercise power from behind the scenes may not be enough this time around. To quote author and political analyst Ayesha Siddiqa, “Munir will now have to find a way to run a hybrid government without being unnecessarily visible.”

Secondly, and more importantly, the economic crisis will require more. He is also aware of the need for a more stable government which can take long-term decisions rather than an unwieldy coalition which is making economic decisions with an eye on the coming election? And, along with this, the military may also have to acknowledge the growing unrest because of the high inflation and taxation .

Of course, his immediate challenge will be in dealing with the growing popularity of the ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan.His narrative of relentless criticism of the military has resonated deeply among Pakistanis and seriously damaged the military’s reputation within the country analysts say.The political turmoil has also caused schisms within the military, with many lower-ranking officers quietly supporting the ousted leader while its leaders have lost patience with his accusations.

However, the army cannot be perceived to be seen as an institute against national interests. It cannot afford to erode public support. All eyes will be on how he mends the divide being created; whether he curtails Imran Khan’s rallies, let the status quo remain or gives his approval for accepting Imran Khan’s demands for early elections.

There are also reports that he is a protege of General Bajwa, having served under him as a formation commander. He is therefore expected to protect his former Chief from the criticism emanating from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf as well as in the media regarding the wealth he and his family have amassed. However, it is unlikely that he will support any action against General Bajwa.

Rana Banerji, who headed the Pakistan desk at RA&W stated, “I would think he would be more hardline. We do not have any readily available record of his statements in the open domain on what he thinks or feels about India. He has been fairly low profile in this regard. But we should assume that he will generally be hardline and at the moment, his credentials and his priorities would focus elsewhere on the domestic front. So on India he cannot afford to be seen to be very pragmatic or over friendly to India”.

Unlike his previous three predecessors, General Munir has not had any training in Western Training Institutes such as the US and UK and as a result of which he may not share their holistic worldview. He was also the chief of the ISI when the Pulwama attack took place in February 2019.

The narrative against India is unlikely to change, in fact General Bajwa in his farewell speech quoted in The Dawn has said that it was 34,000 soldiers — not 92,000 — who were fighting in the erstwhile eastern wing, while observing that “the fall of East Pakistan was not a military but a political failure”. This disinformation and blatant distortion of facts when the prisoners returned were 93,000 and when the military hierarchy was clearly in control will remain.

However, while as a chief his aim will be to ensure that the Pakistan Army remains a cohesive, agile, adaptive and modern force with a focus on operational preparedness and readiness as well as modernisation of the Pakistani Army, the language on India will not see any change, however, its the tone which is important.

The author is a retired Major General of Indian army. Views expressed are personal.

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