Weather report: Large-scale seasonal transition is observed over country last week, winter is knocking doors

Winters in India are now knocking the doors, a large-scale seasonal transition is observed over the country in the past week. Himalayas have experienced moderate to heavy snowfall event during the beginning of the week in the presence of the moderately active Western Disturbance, major hill stations in Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand were wrapped up in snowfall on 14 and 15 November, some mid - elevated hill stations also experienced snowfall this time, Manali - the well known and one of the most visited spot by tourists of the country experienced first snowfall of the season on 15 November.

Precipitation in the span of 24 hours ending 8:30am on 16November on major hill stations:

Snowfall:

Minamarg: 40.0cm
Kukumsheri: 24.4cm
Keylong: 15.0cm
Drass: 12.0cm
Padum: 7.5cm
Gulmarg: 5.0cm
Khadrala: 2.5cm
Kalpa: 1.6cm

Rainfall:

Dalhousie: 33.0mm
Manali: 31.0mm
Chamba: 28.0mm
Bhuntar: 18.9mm
Bhaderwah: 13.3mm

As the western disturbance moved eastwards on 16 November it paved way for clear skies across the hilly states leading to sudden drop in night temperatures to freezing sub zeros in Kashmir, Ladakh, parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Ladakh & Kashmir:

Drass: 15.0°c
Padum: 10.4°c
Tangtse: 10.0°c
Baltal: 9.4°c
Leh: 7.5°c
Keylong: 6.9°c
Kongdori: 5.3°c
Gulmarg: 4.6°c
Kukumsheri: 3.8°c
Pahalgam: 3.4°c

Himachal Pradesh

Keylong: 6.9°c
Kukumsheri: 6.5°c
Sumdo: 2.5°c
ReckongPeo: 2.0°c
Manali: 2.0°c
Narkanda: 2.6°c
Kufri: 3.8°c
Bhuntar: 4.1°c
Sundernagar: 4.9°c
Shimla: 5.7°c
Dalhousie: 6.1°c
Mandi: 6.7°c
Dharamshala: 8.4°c
Una: 9.6°c
Nahan: 14.3°c

Uttarakhand

Kedarnath: 2.2°c
Harsil: 0.7°c
JankiChatti: 0.8°c
Ranichauri: 2.0°c
Auli: 2.5°c
Tapovan: 4.1°c
Mukteshwar: 4.8°c
Shama: 6.3°c
Pithoragarh: 6.9°c
Tehri: 7.0°c
Mussoorie: 7.2°c
Pauri: 8.0°c
Pantnagar: 9.4°c
Nainital: 9.9°c
Dehradun: 11.3°c

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The western disturbance brought in only light showers in parts of Punjab, remaining parts of plains remained largely dry across the past week but after the passage of the weather system cold north west winds from snow-clad Himalayas marched towards the plains of North India resulting in proper cold-shot during nights and morning hours in past couple of days.

Safdarjung observatory in New Delhi at 9.6°c recorded the first single digit minimum temperature of the season on Friday morning following the event temperature drops to season’s Lowest at 9.0°c on Saturday morning, Gurgaon at the same time shivered at 6.8°c, overall national capital region experienced the first round of chilly cold nights in the past few days.

Winter chill is spreading to interiors of the country quickly Baghpat at 9.9°c minimum temperature first single digit min temperature from Uttar Pradesh on Friday, Similarly, Gaya at 9.0°c becomes the first station in Bihar to register sub 10° minimum temperature of the season so far.

Dry weather conditions have prevailed across North East India in the past week, winter is slowly spreading across the states as minimum temperature is below normal by 2 to 6°c at many stations.

On Sunday morning Kohima recorded 6.6°c, Itanagar 9.4°c, Gangtok 10.2°c, Imphal 10.7°c, Jorhat 11.1°c, Guwahati 13.4°c.
In the central parts of the country temperatures dips to 10.2°c a 4° below normal in Bhopal whereas a famous hill station in Madhya Pradesh Pachmarhi shivered at 6.6°c.

Deccan is also showing hints of transition with nights getting cooler with every passing day, on 20th November Pune experiences the first single digit minimum temperature of the season by registering 9.7°c at the dry bulb thermometer, a 5 degree below normal anomaly.

However coastal areas in Maharashtra are still having a pleasant climatic atmosphere as the minimum temperature is recorded as 19.7°c at Mumbai.

In the southern peninsula rains have subsided in the past week as North East Monsoon took a break for the first time in the season after having an aggressive start with back to back wet spells, dry continental air from the inland of the country have ruled the peninsula across the week leading to fall in temperatures, Hyderabad saw a minimum temperature of 14.2°c, Bangalore at 15.4°c both registered 3°c below normal.

As a result of lesser rains in south India week on week rainfall delta has increased over the country but still holding a positive number as a whole.

In the period of 1 October till 19 November, India received 126.9mm rainfall against the normal of 97.0mm, departure from normal stands at +31% compared to +36% during the previous Saturday.

Subdivision wise seasonal rainfall figures

• Southern Peninsula: Actual 227.9mm against the average of 219.4mm, +4% departure from normal.

• East & North East India: Actual 164.8mm against the average of 140.0mm, +18% departure from normal.

• North West India: Actual 79.5mm against the average of 29.0mm, +174% departure from normal.

• Central India: Actual 93.5mm against the average of 67.2mm, +39% departure from normal.

Current synoptic features influencing weather in India as on 20th November:

• Well Marked Low Pressure Area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestward, concentrated into a Depression and lay centered at 0530 hours IST of today, the 20th November, 2022 over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, near latitude 10.0° N and longitude 85.5°E, about 600 km east of Jaffna (Sri Lanka), 630 km east-southeast of Karaikal and 670 km east-southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to maintain its intensity of depression and move slowly west-north westwards towardsTamilnadu-Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours.

• The Western Disturbance as a trough in lower and middle tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8km above mean sea level now runs roughly along Long. 71°E to the north of Lat. 32°N.

All India Weather Forecast till 26th November:

South India

The depression in the bay of Bengal will gradually move westward and under the influence Light to moderate rainfall is likely to commence from 20th November evening over coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu & Rayalaseema.
The intensity of rainfall is likely to increase with light to moderate rainfall at many places and isolated heavy rainfall is likely over North Tamilnadu-Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh & Rayalaseema on 21st and 22nd November and light to moderate rainfall at a few places over North coastal Andhra Pradesh during the same period.

After a dry phase - wet weather is all set to make a comeback in parts of the peninsula mainly at the east coast for Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

Light to moderate rains are expected to move into the interiors of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka by the mid week but the spread of rains are likely to be scattered in nature.

Expected rainfall in South India till 26 November:

Tamil Nadu: 70mm
Andhra Pradesh: 40mm
Kerala: 20mm
Karnataka: 10mm
Telangana: 5mm
Goa: 0mm

North, Central and North East India:

The upcoming week is expected to be dry and clear across the large parts of the country with no scope of a Western Disturbance in a long range, both maximum and minimum temperature will remain stable at current levels till 23rd November.
Cool North West winds from the snow-clad Himalayas will resume Wednesday onwards which may result in a further drop in minimum temperatures by 2 to 3°c and maximum temperature by 1-2°c around the weekend, stations from Kashmir to Maharashtra, Gujarat to Arunachal Pradesh will experience the drop in temperatures towards the second half of the week and winter will be shaping in gradually towards the end of the November.

Expected range of minimum and maximum temperature in the States till 26 November:

• Punjab: 6 to 12°c, 23 to 27°c.

• Haryana: 7 to 13°c, 23 to 28°c.

• Delhi NCR: 8 to 14°c, 24 to 28°c.

• Uttar Pradesh: 8 to 15°c, 25 to 30°c.

• Rajasthan: 6 to 15°c, 26 to 32°c.

• Gujarat: 10 to 17°c, 27 to 33°c.

• Madhya Pradesh: 6 to 13°c, 26 to 34°c.

• Maharashtra: 9 to 19°c, 28 to 35°c.

• Chhattisgarh: 9 to 15°c, 27 to 33°c.

• Bihar: 8 to 14°c, 25 to 31°c.

• Jharkhand: 9 to 15°c, 27 to 32°c.

• West Bengal: 10 to 18°c, 28 to 34°c.

• Odisha: 10 to 17°c, 29 to 35°c.

• North East India: 4 to 13°c, 21 to 34°c.

The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.

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