Putin praise for Modi could be bad news, not for the West, but for hawkish China

New Delhi: Russia and India have always been all-weather friends, through thick and through thin, in war and in peace. In this context Russian President Vladimir Putin heaping praises on PM Narendra Modi doesn’t come as a surprise. Mostly it would come across as just another reiteration of an old relationship and diplomatic business given India’s reluctance to censure Russia for the Ukraine war at international fora and Russia covering for India’s energy security. Let’s not forget Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s stellar performance, hitting two birds with one stone: defending India buying oil from Russia and in the same defence calling out the hypocrisy of the Western world. But, timing counts  While Russia and India have been what is called ‘traditional friends’, diplomatically speaking Russia has always seen India as a balancing force to counteract the US as well as China. While US-Russia rivalry has been so outward that it has shaped the world order and politics for decades, it is Russia’s ambivalent ‘love-hate’ relationship with China that is of interest here. But, for some border skirmishes China and Russia have been at peace, outwardly bonded by communism, but separated enough by Chinese ambitions and Russian pride of once a Super Power. The Ukraine war has exposed the weaknesses of the Russian side quite wide open and Russia’s depleted military and economic status is what China might eye to exploit to make gains into the Russian far east, including the strategic port of Vladivostok. In this context, Vladimir Putin’s latest remarks seem as much aimed at the West as they appear to be a message for China. Putin, stressing upon the “special relationship” with India, lauded PM Modi for his diplomacy, a “patriot” who always defended India’s interests. “Modi is one of those people in the world who is capable of conducting independent foreign policy in the interest of his nation despite any attempts to do some detente or limit something,” Putin said. Close on heels of Xi Jinping’s 3rd term The Russian patriarch was not remiss in also reminding how important Russia considers requests from India. “PM Modi has asked me to increase the supply of fertilisers which’s very important for Indian agriculture. We have increased volume by 7.6 times. Trade in agriculture has almost doubled”. As mentioned above the timing of these remarks is what should make China wary. Two factors of timing must be considered here. Putin’s valourisation of PM Modi and India comes just days after XI Jinping captured power from ever more strong vantage for the third term, riding high, among other things, on the issue of integrating Taiwan, even if militarily. While Russia was always close to India, its inching further close to PM Modi projects India’s power posited against Xi’s absolute power based on visions of unchecked aggrandisement, territorial as well as otherwise. Russia sees through China stratagem It is as much a signalling to the West that India considers Russia a more reliable partner than the US, as also to China that any attempts on its part to push inside Russian territory would be counterproductive. Just days ago an idea gained sudden currency, that China might be eyeing to use its ‘don’t fight, just grab’ policy to the Russian far east while it keeps the rest of the world focussed and occupied with saving Taiwan. As per a report in Forbes, Taiwan, an obvious target for China, is more difficult to crack. Self-governed since 1949, China treats Taiwan as a rebel province, while Taiwan considers itself independent. As per the report, Xi expects reunification to occur no sooner than 2049. Given this timeline, while Russia forces are busy in their conflict with Ukraine, the best strategic thing for China is to press along China’s 2,615 mile frontier with Russia, and grab territory there. For the unversed, China and Russia have bickered and battled over their shared border for centuries. The Forbes report says that amid escalating tensions, China could very well demand that Russia return Vladivostok as well as some 23,000 square miles of former Chinese territory Russia has held since 1860. Russia in tatters, China hawkish With Russia’s military reputation in tatters, and the Russian Army reduced to begging for supplies from Iran and a motley band of ex-Soviet states, there is little left in the conventional Russian arsenal to deter Chinese military aggression,” states Forbes. Russia and China, however, could remain allies because they share the common goal of encroaching on the US sphere of influence. Also, if Russia collapsed after losing the war with Ukraine, China would have to confront the West alone, reported Nikkei Asia. Read all the Latest News , Trending News ,  Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.