No, Taiwan did not choose China: Why results of Taiwanese local elections don't mean love for Beijing

Last weekend the world witnessed two kinds of Chinese societies: one protesting to be free of one-party authoritarianism; the other exercising its democratic right to choose its representation. On 26 November, Taiwan held the “nine-in-one” election with citizens voting for nine categories, from local officials to city councillors and mayors of the major municipalities. Voters also decided on a referendum that asks voters to agree on constitutionally lowering the voting age from 20 to 18; a move Beijing  feared  could usher in more constitutional changes. The elections were the first national vote since China’s massive military escalation towards Taiwan and Xi’s renewal of the vow to use force to ‘reunify’ with the Island at the 20th Party Congress. Not to mention, the country saw more engagement from international media on the topic than it has ever been before.

With no great shock, Kuomintang (KMT) claimed its victory across major seats whereas Democratic Progressive Party (DDP) saw its worst-ever performance. The referendum which  required  nearly 9.62 million ‘yes’ votes in an approximately 23.19 million demography also failed to pass. Internationally, the triumph of the pro-china party is already being seen as a ‘de-facto’ referendum on cross-strait policy. Gambling on the august crisis, President Tsai herself campaigned across the cities tying the election to the China threat ultimately leading to her  resignation  as a party chairperson.

Though cross-strait relations rarely take a front seat in local elections, Beijing has over the years amped up its efforts to influence the democratic process by manipulating digital space and economic statecraft. While this election had seen less interference from China in comparison to the 2018 local elections; as  stated  by Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu; It has not stopped it to package the election results as a win for  peaceful  cross-strait engagements.

It’s domestic politics!

“Except in a few major cities, familiarity with candidates is usually more determining in local elections than party affiliations. Also, it’s mostly about local issues.”, a colleague expressed. During this election, issues such as strict COVID-19 prevention measures; the country’s economic performance, rising housing prices, and social welfare took the center stage. A few candidates were also  lost  to plagiarism scandals; an issue almost unknown to Indian polity. DPP lost the election not only because of underperforming on its promises but also on the choices of its candidates. Contrary to what China’s Taiwan Affair stated the election was no mainstream public reflection on cross-strait relations. The majority of Taiwanese citizens increasingly identify as Taiwanese and treasure the status quo as repeatedly reflected in  opinion  polls.

Local experts also point out that it is getting harder for parties to differentiate themselves on the China issue. The current KMT chairman Eric Chu himself  relabeled  the party as anti-communist and “pro-U.S.” on its visit to Washington. The loss of the last two national elections has also  provoked  some self-introspection in the party’s ideological leaning.

DPP is  trusted  over KMT in the presidential election where the protection of Taiwan takes priority. Taiwan’s political field has also diversified a lot since its democratization. As a welcomed addition new players such as - Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and NPP (New Power Party) - provide an alternative to this rigid blue-green dichotomy. These players made further political inroads in this election. TPP, chaired by Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-Je who characterizes the party as a “white force” secured substantial seats in its  first  time running for local government offices. The party also won the mayoral race of Hsinchu City, home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), raising its political profile and standing in comparison to other increasingly dwindling small players.

What this nine-to-one election has really brought to light is that both DPP and KMT are no monoliths and there are factions within who openly confront each other to ascertain the party’s future direction. Squabbles within DPP factions were  heightened  in concerns about Tsai’s COVID policies. The competition to bring one’s own factional candidates to the forefront at this year’s primaries was also  highlighted  by local pundits. KMT also has a few candidates vying for the presidential seat nomination in 2024; the newly elected Taipei Mayor and Chiang Kai-shek’s great-grandson Chiang Wan-an being the youngest.

The election outcome has directly affected the party factions which is crucial for the next presidential race. With more local resources in hand, KMT is predicted to have some  advantage  in the 2024 race; but it will also be held accountable by the voters for its pro-china image with increased intimidation of the Island.

The successful conduction of yet another election is certainly a win for Taiwan’s democracy, and too premature to be seen as a loss for Taiwan’s identity.

Way ahead for India 

It is a known fact that India and Taiwan have no official diplomatic relations, but it has not stopped both entities to engage with each other economically and culturally. President Tsai’s presidency brought a new boost to Taipei’s outreach to India, but all the parties active in Taiwan’s political scene unanimously agree on the importance of Island ties with New Delhi.

Looking forward, India should pay greater attention to reaching out to political actors across all the parties to deepen and institutionalise its interests in the region. It is essential not to characterize domestic politics simply as black and white and utilize India-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Forum to boost bilateral ties across the issue areas. Any meaningful engagement with Taipei requires a nuanced understanding of the polity itself.

With its indirect statement on the Taiwan Strait crisis this year, India has already declared its commitment to stand against any unilateral action to change the status quo in the region. Tensions in the strait are not going anywhere anytime soon with increasingly centralised China with one man running the show. India must extend its attention to Taiwan and its inalienable role on the international stage to de-escalate tensions and to ensure peace and stability in Indo-Pacific.

As the largest democracy and diverse Asian society, Indian media’s sincere focus on Taiwan will raise the country’s own voice and provide an objective alternative to Beijing’s discourse on the Island. Normalizing its version of the history and events via economic statecraft and public diplomacy is a known tactic in PRC’s book; a reality India knows all too well.

In short, Taiwan’s vibrant democracy and diverse society are coming to age on their own terms. PRC policies and actions have only pushed people across political and economic fields to introspect their dependence on the mainland. The only message this election should send to the international community is that the Taiwanese have their own voice and they will raise it to demand their livelihoods and also to assert their identity.

The author is a PhD, Graduate Institute of International Politics National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan. Views expressed her personal.

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