Geopolitics of climate change: Agenda of G-20 and India’s perspective

While global geopolitics is rife with the Russia-Ukraine war, China-Taiwan conflict, an economic recession at the global level following the outbreak of Covid-19 as well as the need for evolving a “safe and secure supply chain” for ensuring food and medicine supply without any interruption, another issue which also requires equal greater attention from the Global Commons is the climate change and its repercussion.

Climate change and societal security

Climate change is as observed producing a deeper impact on societal security. Growing food crises, rising temperatures, migration, climate-induced societal vulnerability as well as depletion of water and soil along with irregular rainfall which often causes floods as well as drought are the consequences of climate change as studies suggest.

This often induces conflict within society and often leads to war among different countries. In this regard, it is apt to highlight some of the conflicts in the West Asia and North Africa (WANA) region, Central Asia, and Latin America are rooted in resource scarcity and climate change. The more recent war between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over arable land, water resources, etc. is an example of such climate-induced conflict.

Geopolitical Dimensions of climate change and G 20

The reason for highlighting such a causal relationship between climate change and geopolitics is to locate how G-20 as a coherent bloc is approaching this issue of climate change. The G-20 debate on climate change is assuming crucial importance in recent years as members comprising India, Russia, United States, Germany, France, China, Japan, Australia, South Africa and Argentina, etc. are part of this group.

In this regard, it is pertinent to mention here that some of these countries are playing a crucial role in climate negotiation at various other multilateral forums also. Though these negotiations have not produced substantial results. One of the major factors impeding a consensus on climate change at the global level is that there is a historical divergence between Global North and the Global South over-sharing “historical burden” of pollution.

Another contentious issue is the question of climate financing, modalities to reduce carbon footprint and access to technology. Some of these issues need to be looked at in a broader framework while addressing the question of climate change. Because of the emission of the maximum greenhouse on average as per the report of c_arbon Brief_, 2019, the temperature in “2021 increased to 1.1 to 1.2C than in 1880 and 1900.”

The reason to make a comparative assessment of Carbon emissions is to highlight the fact that climate change is occurring at a rapid pace and there is an urgent need to address the crisis at the global level. The same report further underlines that both China despite being part of the Global South and the US emitted a maximum greenhouse gas of near about “40 per cent” thus contributing to the present climate crisis.

One of the most important factors responsible for climate change is also emission of large-scale methane into the atmosphere. A recent study published by Ian Tiso titled Methane emissions in the United States 1990-2020 shows that the United States released around “688 million metric tons of carbon dioxide” in 2020. This statistical data demonstrates Washington is responsible for greenhouse emissions and its adversarial impact on climate change.

At the same time, the lack of commitment on part of the US can be evident from the fact that despite being the prime mover of the Kyoto Protocol as well as the Paris Agreement, it withdrew from both the agreements thus casting doubt about Washington’s commitment to addressing climate change.

What one can infer from the above data on carbon emission is that the two major economic powers United States and China are not in fact following the international standard in mitigating the adverse effect of greenhouse emissions which in turn contributes to the present crisis. Scientists are of the opinion that if this trend continues for a few more years, then thinking of limiting global climate change is a distant dream.

In this regard, it is necessary to mention here that despite being the world’s largest emitters both China and the US are not taking much initiative to address the climate crisis. The lack of consensus in addressing the climate crisis is largely due to geopolitical one.

Though both United States and China are trying to arrive at a consensus in addressing the adversarial effect of climate change it is limited to a mere joint declaration only. For instance, both countries signed the “U.S.-China Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s” in November 2021 but the same was suspended when the crisis between China and Taiwan erupted in August 2022.

In this context, what one can underline here is that neither Washington nor Beijing is genuinely committed to addressing the concerns and talking more rhetorically.

Another area where both Washington and Beijing are at loggerheads with each other over the question of sharing technology which is a key component in securing a sustainable energy transition. In this regard, it is imperative to highlight the fact that the present geopolitical impasse on various issues including the Indo-Pacific, the Ukrainian crisis, trade issues, and human rights issues are shaping the nature of the bilateral relationship between these two powers. This as analysts are arguing is impeding a shared commitment to climate change negotiation.

In addition, China’s commitment to achieving carbon Neutrality by 2060 is a mirage and looking at its current pace of economic development and urbanisation. Similarly, it is a fact that in 2019 as per the Emissions Gap Report 2020 published by UNEP, “China emitted around 26 per cent of greenhouse.”

This shows that China’s commitment to achieving Carbon Neutrality as discussed above is a tall claim. The rapid urbanisation of China is itself posing a threat to China’s commitment to achieving Carbon Neutrality as discussed above. As per a study titled High-resolution Carbon Emissions Data for Chinese Cities written by Zhu Liu and Buffing Cai and published by Belfer Centre, “cities contribute 85% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in China”. The same study further points out that “nearly 70% of the population will live in urban areas by 2035”.

In this context, Liu and Cai study highlights that “as the world’s largest developing country, with unprecedented urbanization, industrialization and poverty elimination processes, China has been and will continue to be the major force behind anthropogenic carbon emissions”.

Like the US, China is the world’s largest emitter of methene which is accelerating climate change. As per the International Energy Agency (IEA) study of 2021 it emitted “28 million tonnes of methane.”

Over the years China’s Belt and Road Initiative (OBOR) which aims at the construction of infrastructure projects and aims at connecting countries of Africa, Europe and Asia is also putting lot of environmental stress. China is also paying scant attention to the environmental assessment of the OBOR projects.

The contentious issue that needs to be looked at while addressing global climate is whether China’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) is not realistic enough. Just after the Paris Summit in 2015 China signed the NDC to ensure carbon neutrality. This has created fraught within the Global South. As it created additional institutional challenges for developing countries and emerging economies to meet the stipulated goal of limiting greenhouse gas emissions who are engaged in massive socio-economic development programs as well as industrialisation.

In this context, the imposition of obligations for the Global South in the name of addressing climate change concerns is not the right approach. Another concern for the countries of the Global South is the non-availability of the right kind of technology as well as the lack of resources in shifting to renewable energy impeding their efforts to minimize greenhouse gas emissions.

At the same time, countries of the Global South are facing a historical injustice as studies suggest that the rich North is largely responsible for the present climate crisis. On the other hand, the countries of the Global South face the adversarial impact for which they are not responsible at all.

Even IMF in a recent study titled Poor and Vulnerable Countries Need Support to Adapt to Climate Change underlines that “The international community can help poor and vulnerable countries adapt by providing financial support and developing institutional capacity. These countries will suffer the most devastating impacts of climate change even though they’re not responsible for causing it. It’s also in the world’s interest to ensure climate change does not jeopardize development and stability in poorer countries”.

The major reason to discuss the geopolitical fallout of global climate change and its repercussions on the geopolitical move of both China and the US is to highlight that over the years Washington and in recent years Beijing is paying scant attention to mitigating climate change concerns and are involved in a blame game.

It is in in this context there is a need to underline how the G 20 group as a cohesive platform representing both Global North and Global South will address the issues concerning climate change.

The urgency of the matter arises as the Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On published by UNEP in its study highlights that if the present level of emission continues then the “world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century”. This is in fact a clear signal for greater climate-related disasters which the global community will confront in the future. The study further outlines that “the reduction of methane emissions from the fossil fuel, waste and agriculture sectors could help close the emissions gap and reduce warming in the short term”.

The IPCC in its second report published in February 2022 titled Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability underline that “The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F). Even temporarily exceeding this warming level will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible. Risks for society will increase, including to infrastructure and low-lying coastal settlements”.

Some of the concerns relating to climate change and its adversarial consequences are going to shape the G-20 agenda on climate change. Just after the Paris summit on climate change in 2015, the G-20 adopted a coherent plan of action in 2016 in which emphasis was laid on reaching the goal as set out by the Paris summit.

In this regard, G-20 brought out a concrete Plan of Action titled G20 Action Plan on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in which one of the main mottos of the agenda is to “ Implement the 2030 Agenda domestically according to national priorities, needs and capacities, and internationally in fostering peaceful, just and inclusive societies which are free from fear and violence, and in supporting low income and developing countries to generate progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) which includes eradicating poverty and hunger”.

This Plan of Action on part of the G-20 can be considered a step towards addressing a concern of climate vulnerability. The Hamburg summit of G-20 which took place in 2017 adopted a plan of action titled G20 Hamburg Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth in which emphasis was laid on “recognising different national preferences and circumstances, encourage to initiate sharing good practices and experiences on domestic mitigation and adaptation policies, including domestic economic and market-based instruments as well as emission to value approaches”. This policy initiative is a positive move to address the concerns being raised by developing countries as they are subjected to historical injustice due to the lack of sensitivity shown by the developed countries while carrying out their industrial activities.

However, what is intriguing is that the G-20 summit in Hamburg failed to arrive at a consensus as the US took a different stand on the issues relating to climate change. Similarly, the non-attendance by China’s President Xi Jinping at the 2021 Rome summit of G 20 is a clear reflection of the fact that like the US, which is adopting a contrasted position from the official declaration of G 20, China is not serious about climate concerns at all.

Five important critical areas that the G-20 bloc should address while looking at the question of climate change. They are:

• Protecting the interest of the Global South
• Issues of climate financing as envisaged in the Paris communique
• Technology transfer to the Global South
• Protecting the interest of island countries as they are more vulnerable to climate change
• The issues relating to climate change have to be looked at from a sustainable perspective which includes addressing the concerns relating to energy security, food security, water security along with health security

India’s Perspective

A natural question that arises here is how India looks at the question of issues relating to climate change. Since India is part of both G 20 and a champion for the cause of Global South, it is pertinent to highlight New Delhi’s role in promoting the idea of sustainability and harmony between development along with concern for the environment.

It is a fact that the idea of “Panchamahabuta” (five elements of nature are “earth, water, air, fire, space”) was explicitly mentioned in the ancient religious scriptures of India. This aspect provides a normative framework for India’s approach to climate change and sustainability.

India’s approach to address climate change concerns are premised upon:

• Industrialisation with concerns for environment (sustainable developmental initiatives) are necessary for addressing socio-economic problems which include mitigating poverty
• Urgent need for addressing climate change concerns which includes mitigating carbon emission
• Unlike the US and China, India is not a “historical polluter”.

These three points reflect India’s position on climate change in various international forums including G-20. As Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi in his address to the Glasgow Summit rightly underlined “despite having 17 per cent of the world’s population today, whose responsibility in emissions has been only 5 per cent”.

PM Modi’s speech reflects the centrality of India’s commitment to addressing climate change vulnerabilities. In the same summit, PM Modi also outlined five major initiatives also known as “Panchamrit” to address the climate change concerns.

These are:

• “India will reach its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030;
• “India will meet 50 percent of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030;
• “India will reduce the total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes from now onwards till 2030;
• “By 2030, India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by less than 45 percent;
• “By the year 2070, India will achieve the target of Net Zero.”

The five points as envisaged by Prime Minister constitute the bedrock of India’s approach to climate change. Another point that needs to be stressed out is that India is a responsible player in the climate negotiation and has outlined an “updated” NDC in August 2022. The NDC underlines “commitment to work towards a low carbon emission pathway, while simultaneously endeavouring to achieve sustainable development goals”.

As Amitabh Kant, India’s G-20 Sherpa in an article titled India Narrative of Development- USP of G20 India Presidency underlines “India was the only country which achieved its NDC targets nine years ahead of the schedule…. None of the G20 countries achieved it.” The other members of G-20 including China and the US will, in fact, learn lessons from India as how to address the concerns relating to climate change.

This shows how India is resilient and effective in addressing the question of climate change and ensuring a smoother energy transition in a short period. India’s initiative with regards to the formation of the International Solar Alliance (ISA) as well as the National Hydrogen Mission are steps towards ensuring a smoother energy transition.

It is worth mentioning here that because of ISA many developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean are benefitting a lot in terms of both technological well as financial assistance. India’s initiative of ISA is a step towards ensuring “climate justice” which is the motto of Sustainable Development Goal as envisaged by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCC).

Similarly, the National Hydrogen Mission, which Prime Minister Narendra launched on 15 August 2021 aims at the “target of production of 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030 and the related development of renewable energy capacity”.

This in fact will help India to meet its domestic energy requirement to a greater extent and will reduce the import of fossil fuels. This shows the rapid progress India has made in harnessing renewable energy within a short period of time. Even the countries of the Global South can also able to take advantage of India’s experience in harnessing renewable energy which includes hydrogen and solar. Who knows in future India will be the nodal centre in the renewable energy sector of the world.

Looking at India’s contribution to global climate discourses and ensuring sustainable energy transition, New Delhi is providing a leadership role to the G20. It is a fact that New Delhi over the years championed the cause of Global South in various international forums at the same time bringing out the issues like “ climate justice” and “ sustainable development goals” to the forefront of global discourses.

Along with this, India addresses the question of energy transition in a comprehensive framework which includes mitigating food crises, and water crises along with accessibility of clean energy. Since India is assuming the charge of presidency of G20 from 1st of December 2022, it is hoped that under India’s leadership Global South’s climate concerns will be addressed more holistically.

Conclusion

Though G20 is emerging as a major multilateral bloc representing major global powers but the question of climate concerns needs to be addressed urgently. Two major global powers United States and China also being the largest polluter of global climate are not taking comprehensive measures which to a great extent hindering while addressing the question of climate change.

In this context, India can play a greater role in addressing climate change concerns of Global South and ensuring a meaningful discussion on renewable energy transition at G 20 forums. It is a fact that while Global Commons is espousing the doctrine of sustainable security in recent years, on the other hand, the ancient Indian holy religious text Garuda Purana talks about:

“ॐ सर्वे भवन्तु सुखिनः सर्वे सन्तु निरामयाः । सर्वे भद्राणि पश्यन्तु मा कश्चिद्दुःखभाग्भवेत् । ॐ शान्तिः शान्तिः शान्ति”.

The English translation of the same is “Om may all be happy and may all be healthy. May all be well and no one be in pain. Om Shanti Shanti Shanti”.

Hopefully, this ancient Indian wisdom may be the guiding normative principle for G 20 in addressing the global climate crisis and will show light to Global Commons in future.

The author is an Assistant Professor at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views are personal.

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