‘Crisis State’: Pakistan gets new Army chief, but situation will continue to remain turbulent

The moment Lt Gen Asim Munir received the Pakistan Army chief’s baton from his predecessor Gen Qamar Bajwa on 29 November 2022, he became the most important person in Pakistan.

It matters little what political stratagems and calculations played out in the long-stretched drama which finally resulted in Gen Munir’s appointment because Pakistan’s Army chiefs are not known to continue to caress the hands that have taken them to the most powerful office in the country.

Indeed, in the past, they have been keen to show that they are their own men with their loyalties to the force they lead and the foundational ideology of the country. Once they occupy the top slot in Rawalpindi, they use the men in Islamabad.

There is no reason why it should be different with Munir. This is notwithstanding the assurances he may have directly or indirectly conveyed to the Sharifs to become Army chief.

It was widely and persistently rumoured in Pakistan that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Mariam Nawaz were insisting on the selection of Munir despite the technical difficulty of his retirement two days before that of Bajwa.

Munir had been unceremoniously removed from the office of the DG, ISI, within months at former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s insistence. Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, Imran’s favourite general, was appointed in his place.

Obviously, the Sharif father and daughter were convinced that if he did not favour them, at least, he would not lean towards Khan. Some Pakistani observers believe that Munir also conveyed his views on Khan to the Sharifs.

It was also rumoured that Bajwa was reluctant to recommend Munir because of this technical issue even though his relations with him were good. Besides, a controversial appointment may not have been good for the Army. This was especially because of some ‘groupism’ but also because of Imran Khan’s popularity with sections of junior and mid-level officers.

In the end Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif accepted his elder brother’s demand and the technical difficulty was resolved by simply indicating that Munir’s tenure as a Lt General would be construed to begin from the date he assumed charge and not the date of his notification.

Personal reasons had led to his actually wearing the third star on his uniform two months after the date his promotion was officially announced. At the same time, it was made clear that the delay would not cause a loss in his seniority. Thus, he was made to remain the senior most serving general on the day of Bajwa’s retirement.

There seems little doubt now that Bajwa’s reluctance to go along with the solution found to favour Munir was overcome by leaks about the accumulation of wealth by his family members after he became army chief in 2016. The family’s income-tax returns, including that of his wife, were published on a website. For the record the Shehbaz Sharif government announced an investigation and the army spokesman stated that these reports were misleading.

However, they obviously had an impact on Bajwa especially because the financial dealings of his family were not unknown in knowledgeable Pakistani circles.

It is clear by now that the Pakistani army has ‘accepted’ Munir’s appointment. While two of the contending generals for the chief’s job — Azhar Abbas and, not surprisingly, Faiz Hameed — have resigned, no restlessness in the force has surfaced.

Pakistan Army coalesces around its leader

With the passage of a few weeks Munir’s grip on the Army will become complete for the Pakistan army is a professional force and it coalesces around its leader. The question now is the direction in which Munir will take the Army and the country. As the country’s most powerful person, the Army chief’s decisions have a decisive influence on the critical domestic, foreign and security policies of Pakistan.

In his last public address on 23 November Bajwa stated that the Army had decided in February that it would not intervene in Pakistan’s politics. This was a reiteration of what army spokesmen have been saying since the beginning of the political crisis which led to the ouster of Imran Khan’s government in April this year. He also urged the political class to accept election results and the flow of politics and not erode the credibility of governments by using terms such as “selected” or “imported”. He also underlined that while criticism of the Army was acceptable what was not was the perpetuation of wrong narratives about it.

Army continues to be a factor in politics

For all of Bajwa’s claims of the Army becoming ‘apolitical’, Pervez Elahi, the current Chief Minister of the Punjab province, has claimed that the general had hinted to him that his party — the PML(Q) — should side with Khan’s Pakistan-e-Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) in the Punjab Assembly. He indicated that he had accepted the hint because of which he joined hands with the PTI instead of the Sharifs.

On his part, Khan has accused Bajwa of playing a double game with him. Bajwa had obviously been given the green light for that extraordinary press conference in which the ISI DG revealed that he was present when Khan offered Bajwa an extension provided he supported his government. The bitterness between Khan and Bajwa will continue but the Pakistan army has always found ways to ensure that those who had led them were never completely humiliated.

The upshot of all this is that despite Bajwa’s claims the army continues to be a factor in politics. Hence, the question now is how Munir will play the political game. And, in that game the main issue is the timing of the next elections. Khan wants early elections. That would benefit him for he continues to be the most popular political leader in the country and early elections would most likely see him back in office. The Shehbaz Sharif led Pakistan Democratic Alliance government has shown no inclination to accept Khan’s demand. It is indicating that elections will take place as scheduled.

The term of the present government can continue till mid-August 2023 when it will have to step down and a caretaker government will take over and the National Assembly (NA) would stand dissolved. Elections would have to be held within 90 days of the NA’s dissolution. Khan’s PTI is not taking part in the NA but that does not impact the government. As winter deepens Khan will find it more and more difficult to hold public meetings at night to hype up support for his party. His long march to the Pakistan capital was abandoned by him and it cannot be easily revived.

The only option that remains with Khan now is to have the Punjab and the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa assemblies dissolved. He has said that if the PDM government does not agree to holding elections in March (which effectively means resign now) he will, in the next four to five days, have the two provincial assemblies dissolved. That will take these provinces to elections by March and give an opportunity to Khan to show his strength again. It will also put the PDM and Munir in an awkward position.

Tasks for Munir

For Munir the first task is to put his stamp on the Army and devote attention to the country’s security situation. He has already made the customary noises in India — that Pakistan is capable of handling any Indian aggression — but it is the situation in Afghanistan and the recent aggressiveness of the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP) which will take up a great deal of his time.

The recent attack on the Pakistan Mission in Kabul which has been claimed by the ISKP and the TTP’s abandonment of a ceasefire with the army which shows that the hope that a Taliban controlled Afghanistan will provide Pakistan security relief on its western border has not come up to expectations.

Besides these concerns Munir would like to settle his equations with China, which would be relatively easy, but also with the US. All these demands mean that Munir would not like politics to consume his current attention. He would also be aware of the precariousness of Pakistan’s economy.

As the principal constituents of the PDM want time before the next elections but for different reasons. The Sharifs have to grapple with Nawaz’s future, especially the possibility of his return to Pakistan. That would attract PTI’s fierce opposition and hence need, at a minimum, no contrary voices being raised in the PDM or by a Munir-led Army. Besides, the Sharif’s need time to counter Khan’s popularity in Punjab as do the Pakistan People’s Party (PTI) in Sindh and Maulana Fazlur Rehman in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

All in all, Pakistan’s politics will continue to be turbulent in the coming weeks and months and Munir will have his hands full.

The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed are personal.

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