Why Manmohan Singh may not meet Nawaz Sharif in New York

This is not exactly a rejoinder to an article by retired diplomat Vivek Katju published here . But my assessment is that Katju has jumped the gun. There are still many a slip between the cup and the lip. Here is why. There are increasing doubts over whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would be meeting his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in New York later this month.  Katju has listed three “clear pointers” in determining that the Singh-Sharif meeting will take place: (i) Singh’s special envoy Satinder Lambah’s meeting with his Pakistani counterpart Shahryar Khan in Dubai recently (ii) the Pakistani judicial commission on 26/11 to visit India (iii) the comparative calm at the Line of Control. All three reasons listed by Katju, a cousin of Press Council of India Chairman Justice Markendey Katju (a retired Supreme Court judge) and grandson of one of the promoters of Associated Journals (a major vehicle for the Indian National Congress to air its views during the freedom struggle and thereafter), are erroneous in my humble view. First, the foreign policy of India, more so India’s Pakistan policy, is not decided by a special envoy, even if he is an appointee of the Prime Minister himself. It is decided by ground based realities which are often dictated by the opposition, which indeed is so currently as the UPA government cannot afford to smoke the peace pipe with Pakistan in this election year without the pro-active support of the major opposition party, the BJP. Katju’s second “clear pointer” has already come a cropper as Pakistan’s Judicial Commission on 26/12 is not visiting India. This is what credible sources in the Ministry of External Affairs had to tell this writer: “Pakistan informed us that 26/11 Judicial Commission will not travel to India as planned due to procedural and technical issues. Pakistan had earlier conveyed readiness to send the Judicial Commission to cross examine the prosecution witnesses in connection with Mumbai terrorist attacks and we had expressed willingness to receive it. However, they have now informed that they are not able to travel due to technical and procedural issues and will propose fresh dates.” The above MEA averment is the Indian position. And there is no likelihood of Katju or any other person challenging it unless he or she was to come up with evidence to the contrary. As for Katju’s third and last point that the Singh-Sharif meeting in New York may be imminent because the Line of Control has cooled off; the less said the better. The LoC did not flare up because of India. Neither did it become a Line of No Control because of the political leadership of Pakistan. Why the LoC became a live wire in past few months is because of the Pakistan Army. Why did they do so, why they chose this particular timing are relevant questions but there are no formal answers. But one thing remains beyond doubt and this is true for all times – nothing can happen on India-Pakistan borders (or the LoC) without the express permission of the Pakistan Army. We have a situation where the Pakistan Army chief is nearing the end of his extended tenure and nobody knows what is cooking in the mind of General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. Is Kayani really keen on carrying on his baton? This is a million dollar question whose answer is not known to anyone. Media reports emanating from Pakistan have thrown up several names of Pakistani Generals who are in the race for replacing Kayani in the hot seat. But nobody knows the answer. But as of now, Kayani is the only lynchpin figure to decide on the future course of Indo-Pak relations. The Singh-Sharif meeting would be an important constituent of that big picture and undoubtedly the first big step by the new civilian Pakistani government headed by Nawaz Sharif. This leads to my final poser on Katju’s third and last point about the LoC. If a summit meeting between the prime ministers of India and Pakistan can be held because of the two sides’ troops’ behaviour on the LoC, then what explains the unusual, if not unprecedented, conduct of Pakistan Army? Also, is India so foolish and desperate to respond positively whenever the Pakistan Army switches it on or off for us along the LoC? India will be playing in the hands of the Pakistan Army if it were to be fooled into this. Why? Because every Indo-Pak Confidence Building Measure (CBM) has to first have the blessings of Rawalpindi, the seat of power of Pakistan Army. If General Pervez Musharraf was successful in bringing about so many CBMs it was because apart from being the Pakistan President he was also donning the hat of chief of Pakistan Army. Ironically, one of the crucial Indo-Pak CBMs – the ceasefire all along the India-Pakistan delineated or unmarked boundary – is in tatters now. No prizes guessing who in Pakistan is responsible for this state of affairs. Finally, let us come to the question that was tossed up upfront in this article: whether Singh and Sharif will meet in New York. If one goes by the conventional wisdom and factor in the United States card in Indo-Pak relations, this meeting should take place because Washington does not want the two nuclear-armed neighbours to lock horns with another at a time when the drawdown of American/NATO troops from Afghanistan is slated to start in just about six months. The US factor may still be a valid argument for Pakistan government which has just started its new tenure. But it may not be a thumb rule for the Indian government as India is on the cusp of parliamentary elections. The US cannot ensure victory for the UPA government in the coming general elections. The UPA will have to extract it by itself. It won’t be politically correct or prudent for the UPA government to be seen to be cowering before Pakistan in the name of peace in the sub-continent. Two more points should make the picture clearer. One, the announcement whether Manmohan Singh will, after all, meet Nawaz Sharif in New York will be made only after the current parliament session ends on 6 September. Second, one will have to see whether the India-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) Bill is introduced in parliament in the next two days. If the bill is indeed introduced, then the signal would be that Manmohan Singh will not be meeting Sharif in New York. The piloting of the LBA bill in parliament would not happen without the support of the BJP and the BJP will not reverse its hawkish position on the LBA bill without extracting a deal from the UPA. That deal may well boil down to one crude explanation: BJP would allow the UPA to pilot the LBA bill in Rajya Sabha provided the UPA government takes a hard stance on Pakistan. Nothing can be harder policy for India vis a vis Pakistan than Manmohan Singh refusing to meet Nawaz Sharif in New York. The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst. His Twitter handle is @Kishkindha.