Twilight of a titan: Sharad Pawar’s journey from rain-drenched resilience to fading influence

Sharad Pawar’s career is a testament to resilience, strategic acumen and the ability to wield emotional appeal like few others. Yet, in Maharashtra’s 2024 Assembly elections, the octogenarian’s magic seems to have faltered. The political maestro who once unified the Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena into the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) now finds himself grappling with an existential crisis.

Rain-drenched symbolism

Over decades, Sharad Pawar has commanded the political stage with his dramatic speeches and evocative symbolism, often making headlines for turning adversity into opportunity. A defining moment came on October 18, 2019, when a drenched Pawar addressed a rally in Satara amid heavy rain. Refusing an umbrella, he declared the rainfall a blessing from the gods. The images and videos of that moment became an internet sensation, encapsulating Pawar’s larger-than-life persona.

Similarly, during his 2023 Nerul rally—drenched yet defiant following Ajit Pawar’s split from the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)—Sharad Pawar sought to rekindle that symbolic fervour. His trust with rain during election speech continued even in this election, in Kolhapur on November 15, just days before Maharashtra voted.

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However, the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election painted a starkly different picture. His recent attempt in Ichalkaranji (Kolhapur) fell flat as voters appeared unmoved by his sympathy pitch. The rain that once seemed to anoint his campaigns now seems to have turned into a metaphor for his diminishing influence. The veteran leader has endured his worst-ever political performance with voters firmly rejecting his emotional quotient raising the critical question: has Sharad Pawar finally lost his touch?

The 2019 Assembly election were a triumph for the NCP. Pawar masterminded the formation of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), uniting the Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena in a coalition that upended the BJP’s plans and cemented Pawar’s status as a linchpin in Maharashtra politics. Yet, the 2023 rift within his own party—spearheaded by his nephew Ajit Pawar—left the octogenarian battling not just political opponents but also his family. Ajit’s rebellion, and his subsequent alliance with the BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), shook the foundations of the NCP, plunging it into an existential crisis.

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Collapse of NCP strongholds

Despite setbacks, Sharad Pawar showcased his resilience during the 2024 Lok Sabha election, where his faction of the NCP clinched eight out of ten seats in Maharashtra, while Ajit’s group managed just one. This victory briefly reaffirmed Sharad Pawar’s dominance and his claim to being the true face of the NCP. However, the 2024 Assembly election presented a far grimmer reality. With his faction winning only 13 of the 87 seats it contested, compared to Ajit Pawar’s 39, Sharad Pawar’s strike rate plummeted to 14.94 per cent—the lowest in his career. His strike rate of 14.94 per cent in these Assembly polls starkly contrasts with the 80 per cent success he achieved in the Lok Sabha elections just six months ago. This performance not only marked a dramatic fall from the NCP’s 2019 tally of 54 seats but also highlighted the shifting dynamics in Maharashtra politics.

The erosion of Sharad Pawar’s influence is particularly evident in Western Maharashtra, historically an NCP stronghold. In this crucial region, which accounts for 70 Assembly seats, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance surged ahead, winning 41 seats, while the MVA secured just 11. This collapse divulges a growing disconnect between Sharad Pawar’s emotive appeals and the evolving priorities of voters. Despite his evocative campaign strategies—reminiscent of his rain-soaked 2019 rally—the electorate seemed unimpressed, favouring pragmatic governance over nostalgia and emotional overtures.

Baramati: Power and Pawars

The rivalry between Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar was starkly visible in Baramati, a constituency deeply tied to the Pawar legacy. While Sharad Pawar endorsed his grandnephew Yugendra Pawar, the result highlighted Ajit Pawar’s entrenched influence. Ajit’s victory asserted his dominance, leaving Sharad Pawar’s hopes dashed.

Sharad Pawar’s final speech in Baramati before the state went for polls reflected both pride in his legacy and a call for generational change. Avoiding direct criticism of Ajit, he passionately appealed for fresh leadership and energy. Despite his efforts, the outcome highlighted voters’ preference for Ajit’s pragmatic approach and continuity, marking a significant shift in Baramati’s political dynamics.

A legacy under scrutiny

For Sharad Pawar, this election was more than a political contest. It was more like a referendum on his enduring relevance. Although it is not completely clear if the senior Pawar would retire from active politics after his Rajya Sabha term ends in 2026, this electoral debacle under his stewardship could cast a shadow over his illustrious career.

For decades, Sharad Pawar has been a towering figure in Indian politics, demonstrating remarkable acumen that earned him a reputation as Maharashtra’s Chanakya. Yet, as the 2024 results reveal, even the most seasoned leaders cannot escape the realities of changing political currents.

Ajit Pawar’s pragmatic gambit

Ajit Pawar’s decision to align with the BJP and Shinde faction has proven to be a game-changer. By breaking away from his uncle’s shadow, Ajit has not only secured a significant share of power but also demonstrated a keen understanding of the evolving political landscape. By securing the NCP’s name and symbol, Ajit Pawar gained a significant edge, leaving Sharad Pawar to rebuild his faction from scratch.

Ajit Pawar’s electoral success \certainly further complicates Sharad Pawar’s political calculus. By aligning with the BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), Ajit has not only secured a position of power but also demonstrated a keen understanding of Maharashtra’s shifting political dynamics. Although the division within the NCP under the very nose of Sharad Pawar shocked the Indian political circle, it seems Ajit’s strategic gamble has finally paid off positioning him as a formidable force in the state’s politics.

BJP’s strategic dominance

The BJP’s rise in Maharashtra is a testament to its grassroots organisation, welfare-driven initiatives and adept caste mobilisation. These strategies have allowed the party to penetrate regions traditionally dominated by the NCP and the Congress. In contrast, the MVA’s campaign, led by Sharad Pawar, focussed on issues like unemployment, inflation and crime but failed to resonate effectively with voters. There is no doubt that the BJP’s rise in Maharashtra. bolstered by Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction, has reshaped voter dynamics. Their emphasis on governance, infrastructure and welfare initiatives overshadowed the MVA’s legacy-focussed narrative.

Twilight of a storied career?

As the rains of Satara in 2019 recede into memory, Sharad Pawar finds himself grappling with the harsh realities of political change. The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election may not mark the end of his illustrious journey, but they undoubtedly signal a turning point. Whether he can reinvent himself and reclaim his stature or fade into the annals of history remains to be seen. For now, the ironman of Maharashtra politics finds himself battling not just the forces of opposition but also the relentless march of time and change.