Successful A-SAT test announcement shows PM, BJP keen to shift narrative to national security before polls

​There are two aspects to the announcement made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday about the success of India’s Mission Shakti: the A-SAT (anti-satellite) weapons programme that involved an indigenous ballistic missile “killing” a live, low earth-orbiting Indian satellite within three minutes of its launch from Balasore at a height of 300 kilometres from the earth’s surface. It catapulted India into the elite league of countries with counter-space capabilities after the US, China and Russia.

File image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Reuters

The first aspect is strategic. If space is the next theatre of war, then India can hardly afford to stay behind in the race after missing the nuclear bus in the 1960s and later having to contend with non-proliferation sanctions when it needed to develop technology. Possessing the A-SAT technology nice and early when laws for it are still being drafted places India in a position of power. It was important for New Delhi, therefore, to develop and demonstrate its A-SAT prowess, declare its capability of safeguarding own space assets and clarify that India’s space development programme is essentially peaceful in nature and geared towards deterrence, not weaponisation of outer space.

These motives were clear in the FAQs released by the ministry of external affairs which stated that the tests were done to carry out “India’s responsibility” in defending the “country’s interests in outer space”, it has “no intention of entering into an arms race” or “weaponisation” and it backs “international efforts to reinforce the safety and security of space based assets.” Besides deterrence, New Delhi’s other motivation also became clear when it clarified that it “expects to play a role in the future in the drafting of international law on prevention of an arms race in outer space.”

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The unstated reason involves the threat emanating from great power rivalry. China is rapidly expanding its military capabilities and has identified space as the ultimate frontier. It may have the US in its cross hairs while developing own A-SAT programmes and acquiring control over space, but the fallout of that upgradation threatens India whose strategic rivalry with China is slated to only intensify. Lack of progress as a space power, not having the capability of taking down enemy satellites and falling back in an era where satellites are being increasingly used in warfare would have meant tacitly encouraging China to go after India’s space assets in case of a conflict.

Even if India doesn’t want to go to war against its greatest adversary, a deterrence programme won’t harm its interests. As this Firstpost article posits, China, after demonstrating its capability in 2007 “continued to develop its A-SAT weapons — first testing the Dong Neng-2 interceptor missile in May, 2013, and following up in 2013, 2014 and 2015. The latest test, of the Dong Neng-3 missile was in February, 2018.”

The second aspect is purely political. The development of the technology took a decade. Former DRDO director VK Saraswat claimed in 2010 that the building blocks for developing an anti-satellite weapon to neutralise a hostile satellite was within reach. Incumbent DRDO chief G Satheesh Reddy told news agency ANI Wednesday that “we have mastered anti-satellite capability and we have today shown that we can hit satellites at long ranges with a few centimetres accuracy.”

While this shows a continuity in India’s space development programme, the very fact that Modi announced Mission Shakti’s success in a televised address before the nation gives the development an overt political colour, not the least because India’s most bitterly fought elections are just days away. It may be argued that though the prime minister was generous in his praise for the men behind the mission, he could have let the scientists make the breakthrough announcement.

The timing, Modi’s address, the subject of his series of tweets and even the FAQ released by the MEA indicate that the BJP is keen to seize the narrative and to put the focus back on national security instead of letting the Congress hijack it through its minimum income guarantee scheme. In this context, Mission Shakti and the indigenous character of the effort (highlighted in Modi’s tweet) project India as a strong, modern, capable and responsible nation and the prime minister is seen as the only leader capable of taking India to even greater heights.

The MEA release said “India has a long standing and rapidly growing space programme” but added quickly that “it has expanded rapidly in the last five years. The Mangalyaan Mission to Mars was successfully launched.” The focus on national security become clearer from the text of the statement: “The tests were done after we had acquired the required degree of confidence to ensure its success, and reflects the intention of the government to enhance India’s national security. India has seen an accelerated space development programme since 2014.”

The attempt is to portray 2014 as the breakthrough year when a paradigm shift took place in almost all matters involving national security. BJP wants to maintain the focus on issues of national security since it reckons that Pulwama terror attack, Balakot air strikes and now Mission Shakti will segue with its narrative that a nation may only take giant steps if it has a decisive leader whose hands are not tied behind his back and if there is political stability.

Conversely, the Congress and the Opposition are desperate to bring the focus back on economy, jobs and the cash dole-out scheme. Congress president Rahul Gandhi posted a sarcastic tweet by seemingly belittling Modi’s move to make the announcement while Mamata Banerjee fired off a series of tweets and leveled a warning that her party will approach the Election Commission for possible violation of Model Code of Conduct.

It is not clear which code of conduct has been violated with India taking down its own satellite in a complex exercise, but the Bengal chief minister’s anxiety is evident over the fear that this development may again instill a sense of national pride among the electorate and push quotidian issues to the background.

Between the war of the narratives, Mission Shakti is an epochal development. While it may not be in the same league as Pokhran in 1999, it still is a quantum leap in India’s progress towards space technology.